# Vail Resorts (MTN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MTN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:28.229Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $152.96 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $94.16 per share, central $106.32 per share, high $122.52 per share. Buy at or below the central value $106.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:28.229Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.7% at the stated quote. About 7.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- FY2026: 0.15×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 21.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 42.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 41.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 20.5%

- FY2018: 33.2%

- FY2019: 28.0%

- FY2020: 10.9%

- FY2021: 15.8%

- FY2022: 28.6%

- FY2023: 22.1%

- FY2024: 20.3%

- FY2025: 23.7%

- FY2026: 18.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.20×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.16×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.27×

- FY2025: 1.21×

- FY2026: 1.50×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 28.0% vs 20.3%

- Per-share earnings: 5.22 to 6.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.6%

- Market cap gain: -$3.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.9M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.0%

- Per-share value change: $0.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.22

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.09

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.47

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 28.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $5.22

- FY2018: $9.13

- FY2019: $7.32

- FY2020: $2.42

- FY2021: $3.13

- FY2022: $8.55

- FY2023: $6.69

- FY2024: $6.09

- FY2025: $7.53

- FY2026: $4.12

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.25×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 8.18×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.0%

- FY2018: -4.2%

- FY2019: -7.5%

- FY2020: -5.6%

- FY2021: -6.4%

- FY2022: -5.7%

- FY2023: -6.3%

- FY2024: -6.2%

- FY2025: -4.8%

- FY2026: -6.0%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 56% since Oct 2021 · "Vail Resorts stock edges down as weak pass sales overshadow Q4 beat" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -4.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:13.479Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-06: Vail Resorts Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss, Stock Down ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vail-resorts-q3-earnings-surpass-143300293.html))

- 2025-09-29: Vail Resorts posts wider quarterly loss, pass sales fall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vail-resorts-posts-wider-quarterly-205425411.html))

- 2026-02-25: Vail Resorts Heads Into Ski Season Backed by Strong Epic Pass Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vail-resorts-heads-ski-season-204456181.html))

- 2026-03-10: Vail Resorts Cuts 2026 Outlook After One of West's Weakest Snowfall Seasons ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vail-resorts-cuts-2026-outlook-204715507.html))

- 2026-04-23: Vail Resorts Flags 15% Skier Drop, Guides EBITDA To Low End ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vail-resorts-flags-15-skier-180657846.html))

- 2026-06-08: Vail Resorts Stock Slides. Ski Pass Sales Are Dropping, and So Is Guidance. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/da187791-e989-32e6-a22a-2e63b93bbae5/vail-resorts-stock-slides..html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm; observed 2026-09-28.

- FY2017: $1.9B 

- FY2018: $2.0B 

- FY2019: $2.3B 

- FY2020: $2.0B 

- FY2021: $1.9B 

- FY2022: $2.5B 

- FY2023: $2.9B 

- FY2024: $2.9B 

- FY2025: $3.0B 

- FY2026: $2.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 41.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm; observed 2026-09-28.

- FY2017: 43.1% 

- FY2018: 43.1% 

- FY2019: 42.9% 

- FY2020: 39.5% 

- FY2021: 43.5% 

- FY2022: 46.6% 

- FY2023: 42.3% 

- FY2024: 42.6% 

- FY2025: 42.8% 

- FY2026: 41.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in resorts & casinos; annual sales are USD 2.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm (filed 2026-09-28); FY2026: revenue 2838204000; grossProfit 1185041000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MTN.US: Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. The lodging segment owns and manages various luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand; operates other lodging properties and various condominiums; and offers resort ground transportation services. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. Vail Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 41.8% to 42.8% during 2024–26; it earns 21.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 42.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm (filed 2026-09-28); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 41.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.20485968608718036],[2018,0.332324532952249],[2019,0.2800696253871433],[2020,0.10878666581344497],[2021,0.15774147472336675],[2022,0.2863785400411585],[2023,0.22058876024170876],[2024,0.20260502282936452],[2025,0.23650655215819963],[2026,0.18390072834177185]]; median 0.21272422316444456. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 45 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 144432000; cash acquisitions 547044000; owner earnings 251192842.0709656. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.177784985789731.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 140611000; cash acquisitions 1356000; owner earnings 440354264.9801859. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0030793388592728044.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 192035000; cash acquisitions 419044000; owner earnings 325444617.73515964. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.287604640433813.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 172334000; cash acquisitions 327555000; owner earnings 176071000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.8603574694299458.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 115097000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 265338000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 192817000; cash acquisitions 116337000; owner earnings 404195285.43969244. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2878237431034013.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2023: growth capex 45734000; upkeep 269178000; cash acquisitions 38567000; owner earnings 265825000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3171296905859118.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 211197000; cash acquisitions 94356000; owner earnings 292377914.37759614. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3227193141481351.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 235191000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 337556034.338336. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm (filed 2026-09-28); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 231625000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 221520000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); Dividend observations: [[2017,146235000],[2018,204161000],[2019,260567000],[2020,212732000],[2021,78180000],[2022,225786000],[2023,314350000],[2024,323684000],[2025,328168000],[2026,317131000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm (filed 2026-09-28); FY2026: cash repurchases 45000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MTN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.717 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-28); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06839524060631164. Price 152.96; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 5.413941895368782 → FY2026 6.1890925346446135. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $159.44 per share

- 2016-11: $158.40 per share

- 2016-12: $161.31 per share

- 2017-01: $171.54 per share

- 2017-02: $181.18 per share

- 2017-03: $191.90 per share

- 2017-04: $197.66 per share

- 2017-05: $213.90 per share

- 2017-06: $202.83 per share

- 2017-07: $210.76 per share

- 2017-08: $227.95 per share

- 2017-09: $228.12 per share

- 2017-10: $229.02 per share

- 2017-11: $225.16 per share

- 2017-12: $212.47 per share

- 2018-01: $218.56 per share

- 2018-02: $205.87 per share

- 2018-03: $221.70 per share

- 2018-04: $229.31 per share

- 2018-05: $240.79 per share

- 2018-06: $274.19 per share

- 2018-07: $276.87 per share

- 2018-08: $298.05 per share

- 2018-09: $274.42 per share

- 2018-10: $251.32 per share

- 2018-11: $279.18 per share

- 2018-12: $210.82 per share

- 2019-01: $188.26 per share

- 2019-02: $208.39 per share

- 2019-03: $217.30 per share

- 2019-04: $228.85 per share

- 2019-05: $215.11 per share

- 2019-06: $223.18 per share

- 2019-07: $246.52 per share

- 2019-08: $236.28 per share

- 2019-09: $227.56 per share

- 2019-10: $232.37 per share

- 2019-11: $242.67 per share

- 2019-12: $239.83 per share

- 2020-01: $234.51 per share

- 2020-02: $212.61 per share

- 2020-03: $147.71 per share

- 2020-04: $171.00 per share

- 2020-05: $198.33 per share

- 2020-06: $182.15 per share

- 2020-07: $192.03 per share

- 2020-08: $217.67 per share

- 2020-09: $213.97 per share

- 2020-10: $232.04 per share

- 2020-11: $275.84 per share

- 2020-12: $278.96 per share

- 2021-01: $265.96 per share

- 2021-02: $309.18 per share

- 2021-03: $291.66 per share

- 2021-04: $325.16 per share

- 2021-05: $326.88 per share

- 2021-06: $316.52 per share

- 2021-07: $305.20 per share

- 2021-08: $304.85 per share

- 2021-09: $334.05 per share

- 2021-10: $344.71 per share

- 2021-11: $331.71 per share

- 2021-12: $327.90 per share

- 2022-01: $277.10 per share

- 2022-02: $260.55 per share

- 2022-03: $260.27 per share

- 2022-04: $254.16 per share

- 2022-05: $252.21 per share

- 2022-06: $218.05 per share

- 2022-07: $237.13 per share

- 2022-08: $224.68 per share

- 2022-09: $215.64 per share

- 2022-10: $219.13 per share

- 2022-11: $257.54 per share

- 2022-12: $238.35 per share

- 2023-01: $262.34 per share

- 2023-02: $233.49 per share

- 2023-03: $233.68 per share

- 2023-04: $240.52 per share

- 2023-05: $243.20 per share

- 2023-06: $251.76 per share

- 2023-07: $235.49 per share

- 2023-08: $226.32 per share

- 2023-09: $221.89 per share

- 2023-10: $212.25 per share

- 2023-11: $217.31 per share

- 2023-12: $213.47 per share

- 2024-01: $222.00 per share

- 2024-02: $230.31 per share

- 2024-03: $222.83 per share

- 2024-04: $189.37 per share

- 2024-05: $188.72 per share

- 2024-06: $180.13 per share

- 2024-07: $182.01 per share

- 2024-08: $181.70 per share

- 2024-09: $174.29 per share

- 2024-10: $165.69 per share

- 2024-11: $179.24 per share

- 2024-12: $187.45 per share

- 2025-01: $170.12 per share

- 2025-02: $158.99 per share

- 2025-03: $160.02 per share

- 2025-04: $139.20 per share

- 2025-05: $160.17 per share

- 2025-06: $157.13 per share

- 2025-07: $150.26 per share

- 2025-08: $163.80 per share

- 2025-09: $149.57 per share

- 2025-10: $148.33 per share

- 2025-11: $140.21 per share

- 2025-12: $132.80 per share

- 2026-01: $133.07 per share

- 2026-02: $135.81 per share

- 2026-03: $128.32 per share

- 2026-04: $127.18 per share

- 2026-05: $133.60 per share

- 2026-06: $136.15 per share

- 2026-07: $149.38 per share

- 2026-08: $136.91 per share

- 2026-09: $137.18 per share

- 2026-10: $152.96 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $53.43 per share, central $60.55 per share, high $70.03 per share

- FY2018: low $74.51 per share, central $90.41 per share, high $104.88 per share

- FY2019: low $89.13 per share, central $112.12 per share, high $130.69 per share

- FY2020: low $76.63 per share, central $86.17 per share, high $98.88 per share

- FY2021: low $100.57 per share, central $110.36 per share, high $123.40 per share

- FY2022: low $121.75 per share, central $135.16 per share, high $153.00 per share

- FY2023: low $122.21 per share, central $137.42 per share, high $157.68 per share

- FY2024: low $90.75 per share, central $102.36 per share, high $117.81 per share

- FY2025: low $108.79 per share, central $122.47 per share, high $140.67 per share

- FY2026: low $93.75 per share, central $105.86 per share, high $121.98 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201126000049/mtn-20260731.htm); period 2026-07-31, filed 2026-09-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.