# MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MTSI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:28.850Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $271.39 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $36.16 per share, central $39.99 per share, high $45.09 per share. Buy at or below the central value $39.99 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:28.850Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.8% at the stated quote. About 3.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 2.78×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: -0.02×

- FY2018: -0.16×

- FY2019: -0.19×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.20×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -8.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 49.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.2%

- FY2017: -1.4%

- FY2018: -8.3%

- FY2019: -14.8%

- FY2020: 1.0%

- FY2021: 21.0%

- FY2022: 24.3%

- FY2023: 15.5%

- FY2024: 10.1%

- FY2025: 13.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.26×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $747M

- Net income, five-year total: $592M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 2.37×

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 1.30×

- FY2024: 1.58×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -1.4% vs 13.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.03 to 1.04 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.1%

- Market cap gain: $6.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $27M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 58.0%

- Per-share value change: $1.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.04

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.38

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $530M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$146M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -1.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.03

- FY2017: -$2.79

- FY2018: -$2.14

- FY2019: -$5.84

- FY2020: -$0.69

- FY2021: $0.54

- FY2022: $6.18

- FY2023: $1.28

- FY2024: $1.04

- FY2025: -$0.73

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -13.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 36.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.31×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.5%

- FY2017: -14.1%

- FY2018: -11.9%

- FY2019: -36.7%

- FY2020: -19.0%

- FY2021: -9.7%

- FY2022: 16.7%

- FY2023: -4.9%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -13.8%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 29% since Jun 2026 · sales +32.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:13.686Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 28.4% a year for ten years

- 2026-05-12: MTSI Q2 Deep Dive: Data Center and Defense Demand Propel Growth, Guidance Highlights Momentum ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mtsi-q2-deep-dive-data-022855100.html))

- 2026-08-09: Why MACOM (MTSI) Is Up 23.6% After Strong Q3 Results And Raised Q4 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-macom-mtsi-23-6-131045614.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +32.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359425000054/mtsi-20251003.htm; observed 2025-11-14.

- FY2016: $544M 

- FY2017: $699M 

- FY2018: $570M 

- FY2019: $500M 

- FY2020: $530M 

- FY2021: $607M 

- FY2022: $675M 

- FY2023: $648M 

- FY2024: $730M 

- FY2025: $967M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 54.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359425000054/mtsi-20251003.htm; observed 2025-11-14.

- FY2016: 48.0% 

- FY2017: 46.8% 

- FY2018: 34.6% 

- FY2019: 35.2% 

- FY2020: 44.8% 

- FY2021: 51.2% 

- FY2022: 56.4% 

- FY2023: 55.8% 

- FY2024: 50.9% 

- FY2025: 54.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 967.3 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359425000054/mtsi-20251003.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: revenue 967258000; grossProfit 531437000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MTSI.US: MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides analog semiconductor solutions for use in wireless and wireline applications across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeter wave, and lightwave spectrum. The company offers a portfolio of standard and custom devices, including integrated circuits, multi-chip modules, diodes, amplifiers, switches and switch limiters, passive and active components, and subsystems. Its semiconductor products are electronic components that are incorporated in electronic systems, such as wireless base stations, optical networks, radar and medical systems, satellite networks, and test and measurement applications. The company serves carrier infrastructure, which comprise long-haul/metro, 5G and 6G infrastructure, satellite communications, and fiber-to-the-X/passive optical network; industrial and defense, including military and commercial radar, RF jammers, electronic countermeasures, and communication data links, as well as multi-market applications, such as industrial, medical, test and measurement, and scientific applications; and data centers. It sells its products through direct sales force, applications engineering staff, independent sales representatives, resellers, and distributors. The company operates in the United States, China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and internationally. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. was formerly known as M/A-Com Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. in 2016. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is based in Lowell, Massachusetts.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 50.9% to 55.8% during 2023–25; it earns 7.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 55.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 50.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359425000054/mtsi-20251003.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 54.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.051845072029918095],[2017,-0.0135776369639785],[2018,-0.08299875415815769],[2019,-0.1476680006084647],[2020,0.010247305173036257],[2021,0.2099527560336211],[2022,0.24333450102983495],[2023,0.15518135083616677],[2024,0.10060384082975393],[2025,0.13789144947125387]]; median 0.07622445642983601. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years; bought back USD 43.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 32103000; cash acquisitions 85517000; owner earnings 39922000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.142102099093232.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 17573000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 15175000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 17954000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 89972000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 26513000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 470671000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 24699000; cash acquisitions 87692000; owner earnings 119031000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7367156455041124.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 22440000; cash acquisitions 72615000; owner earnings 121668000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5968290758457442.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,360243000],[2018,0],[2019,7193000],[2020,4585000],[2021,1030000],[2022,8052000],[2023,5574000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359425000054/mtsi-20251003.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: cash repurchases 43135000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MTSI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.548 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 28.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.4033672890297003. Price 271.39; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.2063308958667345 → FY2025 -0.7327061876571244. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $36.76 per share

- 2016-11: $49.82 per share

- 2016-12: $46.28 per share

- 2017-01: $47.55 per share

- 2017-02: $46.09 per share

- 2017-03: $48.30 per share

- 2017-04: $48.88 per share

- 2017-05: $60.97 per share

- 2017-06: $55.77 per share

- 2017-07: $60.55 per share

- 2017-08: $45.54 per share

- 2017-09: $44.61 per share

- 2017-10: $40.88 per share

- 2017-11: $32.59 per share

- 2017-12: $32.54 per share

- 2018-01: $31.10 per share

- 2018-02: $21.34 per share

- 2018-03: $16.60 per share

- 2018-04: $16.62 per share

- 2018-05: $22.55 per share

- 2018-06: $23.04 per share

- 2018-07: $20.83 per share

- 2018-08: $23.05 per share

- 2018-09: $20.60 per share

- 2018-10: $14.07 per share

- 2018-11: $17.77 per share

- 2018-12: $14.51 per share

- 2019-01: $18.03 per share

- 2019-02: $19.09 per share

- 2019-03: $16.71 per share

- 2019-04: $13.89 per share

- 2019-05: $14.15 per share

- 2019-06: $15.13 per share

- 2019-07: $19.62 per share

- 2019-08: $19.64 per share

- 2019-09: $21.50 per share

- 2019-10: $22.74 per share

- 2019-11: $24.67 per share

- 2019-12: $26.60 per share

- 2020-01: $28.42 per share

- 2020-02: $25.27 per share

- 2020-03: $18.93 per share

- 2020-04: $30.66 per share

- 2020-05: $31.75 per share

- 2020-06: $34.35 per share

- 2020-07: $42.26 per share

- 2020-08: $35.63 per share

- 2020-09: $34.01 per share

- 2020-10: $36.50 per share

- 2020-11: $44.68 per share

- 2020-12: $55.04 per share

- 2021-01: $56.86 per share

- 2021-02: $64.35 per share

- 2021-03: $58.02 per share

- 2021-04: $56.61 per share

- 2021-05: $59.20 per share

- 2021-06: $64.08 per share

- 2021-07: $61.72 per share

- 2021-08: $60.71 per share

- 2021-09: $64.87 per share

- 2021-10: $69.82 per share

- 2021-11: $71.91 per share

- 2021-12: $78.30 per share

- 2022-01: $61.21 per share

- 2022-02: $60.10 per share

- 2022-03: $59.87 per share

- 2022-04: $50.95 per share

- 2022-05: $54.51 per share

- 2022-06: $46.10 per share

- 2022-07: $57.94 per share

- 2022-08: $55.15 per share

- 2022-09: $51.79 per share

- 2022-10: $57.87 per share

- 2022-11: $68.69 per share

- 2022-12: $62.98 per share

- 2023-01: $67.02 per share

- 2023-02: $68.54 per share

- 2023-03: $70.84 per share

- 2023-04: $58.34 per share

- 2023-05: $59.83 per share

- 2023-06: $65.53 per share

- 2023-07: $69.92 per share

- 2023-08: $84.56 per share

- 2023-09: $81.58 per share

- 2023-10: $70.54 per share

- 2023-11: $83.98 per share

- 2023-12: $92.95 per share

- 2024-01: $86.23 per share

- 2024-02: $88.33 per share

- 2024-03: $95.64 per share

- 2024-04: $101.95 per share

- 2024-05: $101.14 per share

- 2024-06: $111.47 per share

- 2024-07: $100.92 per share

- 2024-08: $109.23 per share

- 2024-09: $111.26 per share

- 2024-10: $112.40 per share

- 2024-11: $132.82 per share

- 2024-12: $129.91 per share

- 2025-01: $132.25 per share

- 2025-02: $115.66 per share

- 2025-03: $100.38 per share

- 2025-04: $103.75 per share

- 2025-05: $121.61 per share

- 2025-06: $143.29 per share

- 2025-07: $137.14 per share

- 2025-08: $128.15 per share

- 2025-09: $124.49 per share

- 2025-10: $148.13 per share

- 2025-11: $174.99 per share

- 2025-12: $171.28 per share

- 2026-01: $219.06 per share

- 2026-02: $248.12 per share

- 2026-03: $222.07 per share

- 2026-04: $281.61 per share

- 2026-05: $364.64 per share

- 2026-06: $380.37 per share

- 2026-07: $251.44 per share

- 2026-08: $263.83 per share

- 2026-09: $284.82 per share

- 2026-10: $271.39 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $14.66 per share, central $15.79 per share, high $17.29 per share

- FY2017: low $12.53 per share, central $13.80 per share, high $15.49 per share

- FY2022: low $11.02 per share, central $11.43 per share, high $11.98 per share

- FY2023: low $21.71 per share, central $23.73 per share, high $26.43 per share

- FY2024: low $25.79 per share, central $28.28 per share, high $31.60 per share

- FY2025: low $34.19 per share, central $37.48 per share, high $41.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359425000054/mtsi-20251003.htm); period 2025-10-03, filed 2025-11-14.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.