# Micron Technology (MU.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:29.592Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $931.24 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $401.64 per share, central $558.31 per share, high $649.54 per share. Buy at or below the central value $558.31 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:29.592Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.2% at the stated quote. About 7.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 1.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.29×

- FY2018: 0.49×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.32×

- FY2023: -0.37×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.26×

- FY2026: 0.75×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 40.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 37.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 24.8%

- FY2018: 51.3%

- FY2019: 20.4%

- FY2020: 7.4%

- FY2021: 14.2%

- FY2022: 18.8%

- FY2023: -9.6%

- FY2024: 1.7%

- FY2025: 15.0%

- FY2026: 86.0%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $96B

- Net income, five-year total: $97B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 94.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 14.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 40.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.8% vs 15.0%

- Per-share earnings: 4.41 to 7.59 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: $1.06T

- Cumulative retained earnings: $122B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 7.0%

- Per-share value change: $3.18

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.41

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.59

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.28

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $131B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $4.41

- FY2018: $11.50

- FY2019: $5.52

- FY2020: $2.38

- FY2021: $5.14

- FY2022: $7.74

- FY2023: -$5.34

- FY2024: $0.70

- FY2025: $7.59

- FY2026: $74.08

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.06×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -8.7%

- FY2018: -7.5%

- FY2019: -14.1%

- FY2020: -10.5%

- FY2021: -11.2%

- FY2022: -9.8%

- FY2023: -11.5%

- FY2024: -11.1%

- FY2025: -10.9%

- FY2026: -2.4%

## Holders

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.3% a year for ten years · sales +256.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:13.865Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-28: Micron Surges on Record Q3 Revenue; AI Demand Lifts Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-surges-record-q3-revenue-040930604.html))

- 2025-09-24: Micron earnings surge on AI demand, bringing record revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-earnings-surge-ai-demand-124437428.html))

- 2025-10-02: Micron Technology (MU): Evaluating Valuation After Strong Earnings and AI-Fueled Guidance Boost ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-technology-mu-evaluating-valuation-153104008.html))

- 2026-01-05: Micron Leads Memory Chip Rally as AI Demand Fuels Global Supply Shortage ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-leads-memory-chip-rally-161002320.html))

- 2026-04-06: Micron’s AI Memory Bet Grows As HBM4 Sells Out And Debt Falls ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-ai-memory-bet-grows-150955394.html))

- 2026-05-11: Micron Rallies as Memory Chip Shortage Fuels AI Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/micron-rallies-memory-chip-shortage-165900436.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +256.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312526000023/mu-20260903.htm; observed 2026-10-09.

- FY2017: $20B 

- FY2018: $30B 

- FY2019: $23B 

- FY2020: $21B 

- FY2021: $28B 

- FY2022: $31B 

- FY2023: $16B 

- FY2024: $25B 

- FY2025: $37B 

- FY2026: $133B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 80.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312526000023/mu-20260903.htm; observed 2026-10-09.

- FY2017: 41.5% 

- FY2018: 58.9% 

- FY2019: 45.7% 

- FY2020: 30.6% 

- FY2021: 37.6% 

- FY2022: 45.2% 

- FY2024: 22.4% 

- FY2025: 39.8% 

- FY2026: 80.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 133.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2026: revenue 133188000000; grossProfit 107504000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.4% to 80.7% during 2024–26; it earns 16.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 80.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.24824629177981272],[2018,0.512677597230678],[2019,0.20433984829976012],[2020,0.07395746450452835],[2021,0.142365397697077],[2022,0.1878248085454985],[2023,-0.09593417742924179],[2024,0.01699210135920773],[2025,0.150414268330761],[2026,0.860030536572598]]; median 0.16911953843812974. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 25% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 94.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2017: growth capex 1392000000; upkeep 3861000000; owner earnings 5089000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2735311456081745.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2018: growth capex 4326000000; upkeep 4759000000; owner earnings 14135000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30604881499823133.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 9855000000; owner earnings 1882000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 8223000000; owner earnings 114000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2021: growth capex 3816000000; upkeep 6214000000; owner earnings 5861000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6510834328612864.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2022: growth capex 3635761052.584095; upkeep 8431238947.415905; owner earnings 7371761052.584095. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.49320115324541297.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2024: growth capex 606000000; upkeep 7780000000; owner earnings 778000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7789203084832905.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2025: growth capex 7505000000; upkeep 8352000000; owner earnings 8539000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8789085372994496.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2026: growth capex 21209000000; upkeep 9503000000; owner earnings 84969000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2496086808130024.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); Incremental return on capital 0.9413513468487599, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,179000000],[2020,225000000],[2021,461000000],[2022,461000000],[2023,504000000],[2024,513000000],[2025,522000000],[2026,610000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); FY2026: cash repurchases 1777000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MU.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.23900000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"A significant portion of our revenue is concentrated with certain customers and end markets." (SEC filing, Oct 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312525000028/mu-20250828.htm (filed 2025-10-03); A significant portion of our revenue is concentrated with certain customers and end markets.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1794415034508015. Price 931.24; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -3.049227799227799 → FY2026 74.07933740191805. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $17.16 per share

- 2016-11: $19.53 per share

- 2016-12: $21.92 per share

- 2017-01: $24.11 per share

- 2017-02: $23.44 per share

- 2017-03: $28.90 per share

- 2017-04: $27.67 per share

- 2017-05: $30.77 per share

- 2017-06: $29.86 per share

- 2017-07: $28.12 per share

- 2017-08: $31.97 per share

- 2017-09: $39.33 per share

- 2017-10: $44.31 per share

- 2017-11: $42.39 per share

- 2017-12: $41.12 per share

- 2018-01: $43.72 per share

- 2018-02: $48.81 per share

- 2018-03: $52.14 per share

- 2018-04: $45.98 per share

- 2018-05: $57.59 per share

- 2018-06: $52.44 per share

- 2018-07: $52.79 per share

- 2018-08: $52.52 per share

- 2018-09: $45.23 per share

- 2018-10: $37.72 per share

- 2018-11: $38.56 per share

- 2018-12: $31.73 per share

- 2019-01: $38.22 per share

- 2019-02: $40.88 per share

- 2019-03: $41.33 per share

- 2019-04: $42.06 per share

- 2019-05: $32.61 per share

- 2019-06: $38.59 per share

- 2019-07: $44.89 per share

- 2019-08: $45.27 per share

- 2019-09: $42.85 per share

- 2019-10: $47.55 per share

- 2019-11: $47.51 per share

- 2019-12: $53.78 per share

- 2020-01: $53.09 per share

- 2020-02: $52.56 per share

- 2020-03: $42.06 per share

- 2020-04: $47.89 per share

- 2020-05: $47.91 per share

- 2020-06: $51.52 per share

- 2020-07: $50.06 per share

- 2020-08: $45.51 per share

- 2020-09: $46.96 per share

- 2020-10: $50.34 per share

- 2020-11: $64.09 per share

- 2020-12: $75.18 per share

- 2021-01: $78.27 per share

- 2021-02: $91.53 per share

- 2021-03: $88.21 per share

- 2021-04: $86.07 per share

- 2021-05: $84.14 per share

- 2021-06: $84.98 per share

- 2021-07: $77.58 per share

- 2021-08: $73.70 per share

- 2021-09: $70.98 per share

- 2021-10: $69.10 per share

- 2021-11: $84.00 per share

- 2021-12: $93.15 per share

- 2022-01: $82.27 per share

- 2022-02: $88.86 per share

- 2022-03: $77.89 per share

- 2022-04: $68.19 per share

- 2022-05: $73.84 per share

- 2022-06: $55.28 per share

- 2022-07: $61.86 per share

- 2022-08: $56.53 per share

- 2022-09: $50.10 per share

- 2022-10: $54.10 per share

- 2022-11: $57.65 per share

- 2022-12: $49.98 per share

- 2023-01: $60.30 per share

- 2023-02: $57.82 per share

- 2023-03: $60.34 per share

- 2023-04: $64.36 per share

- 2023-05: $68.20 per share

- 2023-06: $63.11 per share

- 2023-07: $71.39 per share

- 2023-08: $69.94 per share

- 2023-09: $68.03 per share

- 2023-10: $66.87 per share

- 2023-11: $76.12 per share

- 2023-12: $85.34 per share

- 2024-01: $85.75 per share

- 2024-02: $90.61 per share

- 2024-03: $117.89 per share

- 2024-04: $112.96 per share

- 2024-05: $125.00 per share

- 2024-06: $131.53 per share

- 2024-07: $109.82 per share

- 2024-08: $96.24 per share

- 2024-09: $103.71 per share

- 2024-10: $99.65 per share

- 2024-11: $97.95 per share

- 2024-12: $84.16 per share

- 2025-01: $91.24 per share

- 2025-02: $93.63 per share

- 2025-03: $86.89 per share

- 2025-04: $76.95 per share

- 2025-05: $94.46 per share

- 2025-06: $123.25 per share

- 2025-07: $109.14 per share

- 2025-08: $119.01 per share

- 2025-09: $167.32 per share

- 2025-10: $223.77 per share

- 2025-11: $236.48 per share

- 2025-12: $285.41 per share

- 2026-01: $414.88 per share

- 2026-02: $412.37 per share

- 2026-03: $337.84 per share

- 2026-04: $517.16 per share

- 2026-05: $971.00 per share

- 2026-06: $1,154.29 per share

- 2026-07: $823.03 per share

- 2026-08: $958.73 per share

- 2026-09: $1,065.11 per share

- 2026-10: $953.19 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $48.92 per share, central $68.01 per share, high $79.13 per share

- FY2018: low $67.62 per share, central $94.44 per share, high $110.05 per share

- FY2019: low $33.11 per share, central $44.50 per share, high $51.13 per share

- FY2020: low $23.48 per share, central $25.77 per share, high $28.83 per share

- FY2021: low $63.23 per share, central $70.97 per share, high $81.27 per share

- FY2022: low $86.61 per share, central $120.40 per share, high $140.07 per share

- FY2023: low $20.99 per share, central $22.71 per share, high $25.01 per share

- FY2024: low $14.41 per share, central $15.46 per share, high $16.85 per share

- FY2025: low $104.05 per share, central $145.00 per share, high $168.85 per share

- FY2026: low $396.18 per share, central $550.73 per share, high $640.72 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:13.474Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312526000023/mu-20260903.htm); period 2026-09-03, filed 2026-10-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.