# Murphy Oil (MUR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MUR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:29.980Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $39.85 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $30.81 per share, central $34.65 per share, high $39.77 per share. Buy at or below the central value $34.65 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:29.980Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.0% at the stated quote. About 9.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 4.00×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.12×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: -0.78×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.38×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 11.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 32.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 37.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.5%

- FY2017: 3.2%

- FY2018: 8.0%

- FY2019: 5.1%

- FY2020: -15.4%

- FY2021: 4.5%

- FY2022: 17.1%

- FY2023: 11.5%

- FY2024: 7.6%

- FY2025: 4.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 26.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -4.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.45×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.72×

- FY2024: 0.90×

- FY2025: 2.21×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.2% vs 7.6%

- Per-share earnings: -1.81 to 2.70 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Market cap gain: -$899M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $962M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $4.50

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.81

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.70

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.15

- Average buyback yield: 3.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.60

- FY2017: -$1.81

- FY2018: $2.36

- FY2019: $6.98

- FY2020: -$7.48

- FY2021: -$0.48

- FY2022: $6.13

- FY2023: $4.22

- FY2024: $2.70

- FY2025: $0.72

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.17×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 11.98×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.5%

- FY2017: -9.4%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -18.4%

- FY2021: -14.5%

- FY2022: -11.6%

- FY2023: -11.1%

- FY2024: -13.7%

- FY2025: -11.6%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 11% since Oct 2023 · "Elevated exploration expenses and a decline in operating margin, however, weighed on overall profitability." (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales -10.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:13.944Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.8% a year for ten years

- 2026-02-27: Murphy Oil (MUR) Faces Failure in Second Exploration Well Offshore Ivory Coast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/murphy-oil-mur-faces-failure-151714016.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -10.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717423/000162828026011709/mur-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $1.8B 

- FY2017: $2.1B 

- FY2018: $2.6B 

- FY2019: $2.8B 

- FY2020: $1.8B 

- FY2021: $2.8B 

- FY2022: $4.2B 

- FY2023: $3.4B 

- FY2024: $3.0B 

- FY2025: $2.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 21.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717423/000162828026011709/mur-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 10.8% 

- FY2017: 32.0% 

- FY2018: 40.9% 

- FY2019: 31.5% 

- FY2021: 45.7% 

- FY2022: 56.4% 

- FY2023: 76.0% 

- FY2024: 33.2% 

- FY2025: 21.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 2.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717423/000162828026011709/mur-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 2689845000; grossProfit 577759000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.5% to 76% during 2023–25; it earns 4.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 76%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 33.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717423/000162828026011709/mur-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.024832949189803968],[2017,0.03180688114375607],[2018,0.0802287680340481],[2019,0.05128438243653319],[2020,-0.15384383842213106],[2021,0.045090259023659346],[2022,0.17123431387493537],[2023,0.11498785393766423],[2024,0.07598625949452342],[2025,0.04218767408816755]]; median 0.04818732073009627. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 102.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 942497000; upkeep 863418000; owner earnings 411094000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.292655694318088.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 878727770.5301483; upkeep 1677858229.4698517; owner earnings 701034770.5301483. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2534724488282114.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 688213000; owner earnings 33228000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 277639000; upkeep 836360000; owner earnings 965047000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28769479621199795.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1101593000; owner earnings 478552000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 908164000; owner earnings 364760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717423/000162828026011709/mur-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 851412000; owner earnings 230541000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,206635000],[2017,172565000],[2018,173044000],[2019,163669000],[2020,95989000],[2021,77204000],[2022,128219000],[2023,170978000],[2024,179961000],[2025,186205000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717423/000162828026011709/mur-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 102635000 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.02707516630896146. Price 39.85; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -18.358029679940252 → FY2025 1.6006976884245396. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $25.87 per share

- 2016-11: $33.91 per share

- 2016-12: $31.13 per share

- 2017-01: $28.91 per share

- 2017-02: $28.29 per share

- 2017-03: $28.59 per share

- 2017-04: $26.18 per share

- 2017-05: $24.41 per share

- 2017-06: $25.63 per share

- 2017-07: $26.58 per share

- 2017-08: $22.66 per share

- 2017-09: $26.56 per share

- 2017-10: $26.75 per share

- 2017-11: $27.95 per share

- 2017-12: $31.05 per share

- 2018-01: $32.10 per share

- 2018-02: $25.35 per share

- 2018-03: $25.84 per share

- 2018-04: $30.11 per share

- 2018-05: $30.75 per share

- 2018-06: $33.77 per share

- 2018-07: $33.26 per share

- 2018-08: $30.83 per share

- 2018-09: $33.34 per share

- 2018-10: $31.86 per share

- 2018-11: $31.90 per share

- 2018-12: $23.39 per share

- 2019-01: $27.35 per share

- 2019-02: $28.90 per share

- 2019-03: $29.30 per share

- 2019-04: $27.24 per share

- 2019-05: $24.85 per share

- 2019-06: $24.65 per share

- 2019-07: $24.04 per share

- 2019-08: $18.23 per share

- 2019-09: $22.11 per share

- 2019-10: $20.63 per share

- 2019-11: $23.01 per share

- 2019-12: $26.80 per share

- 2020-01: $20.96 per share

- 2020-02: $18.85 per share

- 2020-03: $6.13 per share

- 2020-04: $11.86 per share

- 2020-05: $11.95 per share

- 2020-06: $13.80 per share

- 2020-07: $13.21 per share

- 2020-08: $13.74 per share

- 2020-09: $8.92 per share

- 2020-10: $7.72 per share

- 2020-11: $10.06 per share

- 2020-12: $12.10 per share

- 2021-01: $12.37 per share

- 2021-02: $16.33 per share

- 2021-03: $16.41 per share

- 2021-04: $16.93 per share

- 2021-05: $21.69 per share

- 2021-06: $23.28 per share

- 2021-07: $21.71 per share

- 2021-08: $21.26 per share

- 2021-09: $24.97 per share

- 2021-10: $27.83 per share

- 2021-11: $26.58 per share

- 2021-12: $26.11 per share

- 2022-01: $31.60 per share

- 2022-02: $34.67 per share

- 2022-03: $40.39 per share

- 2022-04: $38.08 per share

- 2022-05: $42.42 per share

- 2022-06: $30.19 per share

- 2022-07: $35.14 per share

- 2022-08: $38.97 per share

- 2022-09: $35.17 per share

- 2022-10: $48.51 per share

- 2022-11: $47.20 per share

- 2022-12: $43.01 per share

- 2023-01: $43.61 per share

- 2023-02: $39.02 per share

- 2023-03: $36.98 per share

- 2023-04: $36.71 per share

- 2023-05: $34.80 per share

- 2023-06: $38.30 per share

- 2023-07: $43.27 per share

- 2023-08: $45.40 per share

- 2023-09: $45.35 per share

- 2023-10: $44.87 per share

- 2023-11: $42.77 per share

- 2023-12: $42.66 per share

- 2024-01: $38.70 per share

- 2024-02: $39.67 per share

- 2024-03: $45.70 per share

- 2024-04: $44.64 per share

- 2024-05: $42.79 per share

- 2024-06: $41.24 per share

- 2024-07: $41.38 per share

- 2024-08: $37.28 per share

- 2024-09: $33.74 per share

- 2024-10: $31.48 per share

- 2024-11: $32.47 per share

- 2024-12: $30.26 per share

- 2025-01: $26.63 per share

- 2025-02: $26.49 per share

- 2025-03: $28.40 per share

- 2025-04: $20.53 per share

- 2025-05: $20.93 per share

- 2025-06: $22.50 per share

- 2025-07: $24.81 per share

- 2025-08: $24.86 per share

- 2025-09: $28.41 per share

- 2025-10: $28.30 per share

- 2025-11: $32.07 per share

- 2025-12: $31.25 per share

- 2026-01: $30.09 per share

- 2026-02: $33.15 per share

- 2026-03: $41.25 per share

- 2026-04: $41.76 per share

- 2026-05: $36.19 per share

- 2026-06: $32.56 per share

- 2026-07: $39.74 per share

- 2026-08: $36.42 per share

- 2026-09: $37.02 per share

- 2026-10: $39.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $5.37 per share, central $5.69 per share, high $6.13 per share

- FY2022: low $49.14 per share, central $55.56 per share, high $64.11 per share

- FY2023: low $34.98 per share, central $39.58 per share, high $45.71 per share

- FY2024: low $28.80 per share, central $32.44 per share, high $37.29 per share

- FY2025: low $26.91 per share, central $30.31 per share, high $34.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717423/000162828026011709/mur-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.