# Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NBIX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:32.029Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $136.95 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $62.88 per share, central $88.47 per share, high $103.36 per share. Buy at or below the central value $88.47 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:32.029Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 4.94×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.81×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.22×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.23×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -39.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 98.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 98.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -520.0%

- FY2017: -39.3%

- FY2018: 12.7%

- FY2019: 7.3%

- FY2020: 22.1%

- FY2021: 8.2%

- FY2022: 18.4%

- FY2023: 11.6%

- FY2024: 20.4%

- FY2025: 19.2%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 67.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 28.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -39.3% vs 19.2%

- Per-share earnings: -1.62 to 3.29 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $4.91

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.62

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.29

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $55M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -39.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 19.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.63

- FY2017: -$1.62

- FY2018: $0.22

- FY2019: $0.39

- FY2020: $4.16

- FY2021: $0.92

- FY2022: $1.56

- FY2023: $2.47

- FY2024: $3.29

- FY2025: $4.67

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -6.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.18×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 27.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.64×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.6%

- FY2017: -5.9%

- FY2018: -8.1%

- FY2019: -8.4%

- FY2020: 10.3%

- FY2021: -8.1%

- FY2022: -7.8%

- FY2023: -4.3%

- FY2024: -6.8%

- FY2025: -6.6%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.2% a year for ten years · "Neurocrine Q2 Revenue Jumps 39%; Raises FY26 INGREZZA Sales Guidance" (nasdaq.com, Jul 2026) · sales +17.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:14.546Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-02: Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Beats Estimates on Neurology Drug Demand, Expands Payer Access ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/neurocrine-biosciences-inc-nbix-beats-080354241.html))

- 2026-06-30: Neurocrine Biosciences' Ingrezza Momentum Seen Supporting 2026 Guidance Upgrade, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/neurocrine-biosciences-apos-ingrezza-momentum-191841791.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +17.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000007/nbix-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: $162M 

- FY2018: $451M 

- FY2019: $788M 

- FY2020: $1.0B 

- FY2021: $1.1B 

- FY2022: $1.5B 

- FY2023: $1.9B 

- FY2024: $2.4B 

- FY2025: $2.9B 

- FY2026: $3.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 98.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000007/nbix-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: 99.2% 

- FY2018: 98.9% 

- FY2019: 99.1% 

- FY2020: 99.0% 

- FY2021: 98.7% 

- FY2022: 98.4% 

- FY2023: 97.9% 

- FY2024: 98.6% 

- FY2025: 98.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers specialty & generic; annual sales are USD 2.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000007/nbix-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 2860500000; grossProfit 2808400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 97.9% to 98.6% during 2023–25; it earns 12.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 97.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 98.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000007/nbix-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 98.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-5.200048237974005],[2017,-0.39269960380078783],[2018,0.1270334432861291],[2019,0.07337821251349097],[2020,0.22101694915254239],[2021,0.08210678280342094],[2022,0.18427534315866922],[2023,0.1162336319057036],[2024,0.20409641117882474],[2025,0.19197767392727505]]; median 0.12163353759591634. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 98% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000007/nbix-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.9873842082046758],[2022,0.9844159333646806],[2023,0.9789624291240527]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.8% of cash earnings on expansion; paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 20776000; upkeep 4024000; owner earnings 21111000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9841314954289233.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 7300000; upkeep 7400000; owner earnings 37000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1972972972972973.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2020: growth capex 2300000; upkeep 8600000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 407300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0056469432850478765.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 9612333.472439332; upkeep 13787666.527560668; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 86712333.47243933. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.11085312881695794.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 900000; upkeep 15600000; cash acquisitions 42700000; owner earnings 154500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2822006472491909.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 7000000; upkeep 21300000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 249700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.02803364036844213.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 11100000; upkeep 27100000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 341300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.03252270729563434.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000007/nbix-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 3900000; upkeep 30100000; owner earnings 478600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00814876723777685.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000007/nbix-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 167700000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NBIX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.064 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.16280467545979427. Price 136.95; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.0524640219655368 → FY2025 4.6692682926829265. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $43.77 per share

- 2016-11: $46.45 per share

- 2016-12: $38.70 per share

- 2017-01: $42.91 per share

- 2017-02: $44.16 per share

- 2017-03: $43.30 per share

- 2017-04: $53.40 per share

- 2017-05: $43.47 per share

- 2017-06: $46.00 per share

- 2017-07: $48.03 per share

- 2017-08: $56.60 per share

- 2017-09: $61.28 per share

- 2017-10: $62.11 per share

- 2017-11: $71.89 per share

- 2017-12: $77.59 per share

- 2018-01: $85.47 per share

- 2018-02: $84.43 per share

- 2018-03: $82.93 per share

- 2018-04: $81.08 per share

- 2018-05: $96.26 per share

- 2018-06: $98.24 per share

- 2018-07: $100.49 per share

- 2018-08: $122.95 per share

- 2018-09: $122.95 per share

- 2018-10: $107.15 per share

- 2018-11: $88.27 per share

- 2018-12: $71.41 per share

- 2019-01: $88.22 per share

- 2019-02: $77.25 per share

- 2019-03: $88.10 per share

- 2019-04: $72.24 per share

- 2019-05: $84.78 per share

- 2019-06: $84.43 per share

- 2019-07: $96.39 per share

- 2019-08: $99.42 per share

- 2019-09: $90.11 per share

- 2019-10: $99.49 per share

- 2019-11: $116.61 per share

- 2019-12: $107.49 per share

- 2020-01: $100.08 per share

- 2020-02: $94.70 per share

- 2020-03: $86.55 per share

- 2020-04: $98.14 per share

- 2020-05: $124.76 per share

- 2020-06: $122.00 per share

- 2020-07: $120.36 per share

- 2020-08: $116.42 per share

- 2020-09: $96.16 per share

- 2020-10: $98.67 per share

- 2020-11: $94.94 per share

- 2020-12: $95.85 per share

- 2021-01: $109.75 per share

- 2021-02: $109.51 per share

- 2021-03: $97.25 per share

- 2021-04: $94.49 per share

- 2021-05: $96.22 per share

- 2021-06: $97.32 per share

- 2021-07: $93.21 per share

- 2021-08: $95.20 per share

- 2021-09: $95.91 per share

- 2021-10: $105.41 per share

- 2021-11: $83.25 per share

- 2021-12: $85.17 per share

- 2022-01: $79.02 per share

- 2022-02: $89.87 per share

- 2022-03: $93.75 per share

- 2022-04: $90.03 per share

- 2022-05: $93.49 per share

- 2022-06: $97.48 per share

- 2022-07: $94.13 per share

- 2022-08: $104.63 per share

- 2022-09: $106.21 per share

- 2022-10: $115.12 per share

- 2022-11: $127.06 per share

- 2022-12: $119.44 per share

- 2023-01: $110.93 per share

- 2023-02: $103.10 per share

- 2023-03: $101.22 per share

- 2023-04: $101.04 per share

- 2023-05: $89.53 per share

- 2023-06: $94.30 per share

- 2023-07: $101.89 per share

- 2023-08: $108.89 per share

- 2023-09: $112.50 per share

- 2023-10: $110.94 per share

- 2023-11: $116.59 per share

- 2023-12: $131.76 per share

- 2024-01: $139.77 per share

- 2024-02: $130.40 per share

- 2024-03: $137.92 per share

- 2024-04: $137.54 per share

- 2024-05: $135.41 per share

- 2024-06: $137.67 per share

- 2024-07: $141.57 per share

- 2024-08: $127.06 per share

- 2024-09: $115.22 per share

- 2024-10: $120.27 per share

- 2024-11: $126.75 per share

- 2024-12: $136.50 per share

- 2025-01: $151.82 per share

- 2025-02: $118.72 per share

- 2025-03: $110.60 per share

- 2025-04: $107.69 per share

- 2025-05: $123.02 per share

- 2025-06: $125.69 per share

- 2025-07: $128.23 per share

- 2025-08: $139.60 per share

- 2025-09: $140.38 per share

- 2025-10: $143.21 per share

- 2025-11: $152.16 per share

- 2025-12: $141.83 per share

- 2026-01: $136.06 per share

- 2026-02: $132.25 per share

- 2026-03: $131.74 per share

- 2026-04: $131.67 per share

- 2026-05: $158.30 per share

- 2026-06: $168.54 per share

- 2026-07: $166.80 per share

- 2026-08: $154.03 per share

- 2026-09: $141.84 per share

- 2026-10: $136.95 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $14.78 per share, central $17.69 per share, high $19.39 per share

- FY2021: low $13.46 per share, central $14.98 per share, high $16.30 per share

- FY2022: low $25.36 per share, central $32.07 per share, high $35.97 per share

- FY2023: low $36.20 per share, central $47.50 per share, high $54.08 per share

- FY2024: low $50.78 per share, central $68.29 per share, high $78.48 per share

- FY2025: low $64.09 per share, central $85.60 per share, high $98.13 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000091447526000007/nbix-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.