# Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NCLH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:32.621Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $15.39 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $4.73 per share, central $5.38 per share, high $6.24 per share. Buy at or below the central value $5.38 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:32.621Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.4% at the stated quote. About 5.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 2.44×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.19×

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: -2.72×

- FY2021: -3.94×

- FY2022: -0.32×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 6.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -15.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 32.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 29.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.7%

- FY2017: 9.9%

- FY2018: 11.0%

- FY2019: 10.1%

- FY2020: -21.6%

- FY2021: -15.5%

- FY2022: -9.7%

- FY2023: 6.7%

- FY2024: 9.8%

- FY2025: 9.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$5.3B

- Net income, five-year total: -$5.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.6%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$4.5B

- FY2022: -$2.3B

- FY2023: $166M

- FY2024: $910M

- FY2025: $379M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.9% vs 9.5%

- Per-share earnings: 2.78 to 0.89 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 13.4%

- Market cap gain: $497M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$6.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 13.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -13.3%

- Per-share value change: -$1.89

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.78

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.89

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.54

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $27M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$6.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.78

- FY2017: $3.31

- FY2018: $4.25

- FY2019: $4.30

- FY2020: -$15.75

- FY2021: -$12.33

- FY2022: -$5.41

- FY2023: $0.39

- FY2024: $1.77

- FY2025: $0.89

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.27×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.94×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.29×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.7%

- FY2017: -5.9%

- FY2018: -7.4%

- FY2019: -5.3%

- FY2020: -7.9%

- FY2021: -10.9%

- FY2022: -13.4%

- FY2023: -9.4%

- FY2024: -5.7%

- FY2025: -7.4%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Seth Klarman](https://gigainvestors.com/BAUPOST): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 46% since Jan 2025 · "NCLH's 8.9% Q3 Net Yield Drop Raises the Stakes for Its 2027 Reset" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +3.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:14.717Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: Norwegian Cruise Line's Q1 earnings miss estimates as tariffs pressure demand for premium voyages ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-misses-quarterly-105425987.html))

- 2025-06-18: Norwegian Cruise rating cut at Argus on slowing economy, weakening consumer spend ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-cruise-rating-cut-argus-140550460.html))

- 2025-07-31: Norwegian Cruise Line shares surge after record second quarter revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-shares-surge-111530205.html))

- 2025-11-04: Norwegian Cruise Line Says Family Bookings Hurt Pricing Mix ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3b3db9f0-ddad-35fc-a055-20c3db39d36e/norwegian-cruise-line-says.html))

- 2026-03-12: NCLH Guides Flat Net Yields for 2026 Amid Execution Challenges ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nclh-guides-flat-net-yields-130000551.html))

- 2026-08-19: NCLH's 8.9% Q3 Net Yield Drop Raises the Stakes for Its 2027 Reset ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nclhs-8-9-q3-net-161600845.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465926022067/nclh-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: $4.9B 

- FY2017: $5.4B 

- FY2018: $6.1B 

- FY2019: $6.5B 

- FY2020: $1.3B 

- FY2021: $648M 

- FY2022: $4.8B 

- FY2023: $8.5B 

- FY2024: $9.5B 

- FY2025: $9.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465926022067/nclh-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: 41.5% 

- FY2017: 43.2% 

- FY2018: 44.2% 

- FY2019: 43.3% 

- FY2022: 11.9% 

- FY2023: 36.0% 

- FY2024: 40.0% 

- FY2025: 32.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in travel services; annual sales are USD 9.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465926022067/nclh-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 9827592000; grossProfit 3141680000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NCLH.US: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii. The company also provides features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casino and retail shopping areas, and entertainment choices; shore excursions at each port of call, and air transportation and hotel packages for stays before or after a voyage. It offers its products and services under the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32% to 40% during 2023–25; it earns 9.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465926022067/nclh-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09714601611399487],[2017,0.09856638769958286],[2018,0.11014789103345762],[2019,0.10090193409855625],[2020,-0.21568337234618082],[2021,-0.15469417794785345],[2022,-0.09694646342427837],[2023,0.06716925521511621],[2024,0.0976269534801046],[2025,0.0954762158555795]]; median 0.09631111598478719. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 9.7% on new investment; paid dividends in 6 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2016: growth capex 642875000; upkeep 449216000; owner earnings 633085000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.015463958236256.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2017: growth capex 846653000; upkeep 525561000; owner earnings 759872000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1142047608018193.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 1003287000; upkeep 563509000; owner earnings 954843000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0507350423053843.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2019: growth capex 844578664.7945788; upkeep 792591335.2054212; owner earnings 781676664.7945788. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0804706125089847.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: growth capex 1867126000; upkeep 883236000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 166178000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 11.235699069672279.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: growth capex 237440000; upkeep 973512000; cash acquisitions 27322000; owner earnings 910257000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.29086510732683185.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465926022067/nclh-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: growth capex 2053608521.5345397; upkeep 1205997478.4654603; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 379356521.5345397. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 5.413399809834461.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Incremental return on capital 0.09711989303101082, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,3760666000],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,31937000],[2020,6080647000],[2021,2604458000],[2022,15720000],[2023,346857000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465926022067/nclh-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 23826000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NCLH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.8460000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Overcapacity in key markets or globally could adversely affect our operating results." (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465926022067/nclh-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); Overcapacity in key markets or globally could adversely affect our operating results.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 8.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.19279130225431695. Price 15.39; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.8567934050742068 → FY2025 0.7940609671780562. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $38.87 per share

- 2016-11: $39.81 per share

- 2016-12: $42.53 per share

- 2017-01: $47.00 per share

- 2017-02: $50.70 per share

- 2017-03: $50.73 per share

- 2017-04: $53.93 per share

- 2017-05: $49.97 per share

- 2017-06: $54.29 per share

- 2017-07: $55.07 per share

- 2017-08: $59.46 per share

- 2017-09: $54.05 per share

- 2017-10: $55.75 per share

- 2017-11: $54.16 per share

- 2017-12: $53.25 per share

- 2018-01: $60.74 per share

- 2018-02: $56.90 per share

- 2018-03: $52.97 per share

- 2018-04: $53.47 per share

- 2018-05: $52.34 per share

- 2018-06: $47.25 per share

- 2018-07: $50.03 per share

- 2018-08: $53.61 per share

- 2018-09: $57.43 per share

- 2018-10: $44.07 per share

- 2018-11: $51.32 per share

- 2018-12: $42.39 per share

- 2019-01: $51.43 per share

- 2019-02: $55.53 per share

- 2019-03: $54.96 per share

- 2019-04: $56.39 per share

- 2019-05: $54.71 per share

- 2019-06: $53.63 per share

- 2019-07: $49.44 per share

- 2019-08: $50.75 per share

- 2019-09: $51.77 per share

- 2019-10: $50.76 per share

- 2019-11: $53.64 per share

- 2019-12: $58.41 per share

- 2020-01: $53.85 per share

- 2020-02: $37.26 per share

- 2020-03: $10.96 per share

- 2020-04: $16.40 per share

- 2020-05: $15.66 per share

- 2020-06: $16.43 per share

- 2020-07: $13.64 per share

- 2020-08: $17.11 per share

- 2020-09: $17.11 per share

- 2020-10: $16.63 per share

- 2020-11: $22.87 per share

- 2020-12: $25.43 per share

- 2021-01: $22.65 per share

- 2021-02: $29.56 per share

- 2021-03: $27.59 per share

- 2021-04: $31.05 per share

- 2021-05: $31.90 per share

- 2021-06: $29.41 per share

- 2021-07: $24.03 per share

- 2021-08: $25.84 per share

- 2021-09: $26.71 per share

- 2021-10: $25.72 per share

- 2021-11: $19.51 per share

- 2021-12: $20.74 per share

- 2022-01: $20.83 per share

- 2022-02: $19.49 per share

- 2022-03: $21.88 per share

- 2022-04: $20.03 per share

- 2022-05: $16.01 per share

- 2022-06: $11.12 per share

- 2022-07: $12.15 per share

- 2022-08: $13.08 per share

- 2022-09: $11.36 per share

- 2022-10: $16.89 per share

- 2022-11: $16.44 per share

- 2022-12: $12.24 per share

- 2023-01: $15.21 per share

- 2023-02: $14.82 per share

- 2023-03: $13.45 per share

- 2023-04: $13.35 per share

- 2023-05: $14.85 per share

- 2023-06: $21.77 per share

- 2023-07: $22.07 per share

- 2023-08: $16.57 per share

- 2023-09: $16.48 per share

- 2023-10: $13.60 per share

- 2023-11: $15.27 per share

- 2023-12: $20.04 per share

- 2024-01: $17.80 per share

- 2024-02: $19.39 per share

- 2024-03: $20.93 per share

- 2024-04: $18.92 per share

- 2024-05: $16.60 per share

- 2024-06: $18.79 per share

- 2024-07: $18.43 per share

- 2024-08: $17.89 per share

- 2024-09: $20.51 per share

- 2024-10: $25.34 per share

- 2024-11: $26.89 per share

- 2024-12: $25.73 per share

- 2025-01: $28.35 per share

- 2025-02: $22.72 per share

- 2025-03: $18.96 per share

- 2025-04: $16.03 per share

- 2025-05: $17.65 per share

- 2025-06: $20.28 per share

- 2025-07: $25.56 per share

- 2025-08: $24.84 per share

- 2025-09: $24.63 per share

- 2025-10: $22.42 per share

- 2025-11: $18.46 per share

- 2025-12: $22.32 per share

- 2026-01: $21.96 per share

- 2026-02: $24.79 per share

- 2026-03: $18.70 per share

- 2026-04: $18.18 per share

- 2026-05: $18.34 per share

- 2026-06: $21.11 per share

- 2026-07: $18.53 per share

- 2026-08: $16.14 per share

- 2026-09: $14.66 per share

- 2026-10: $15.32 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $27.83 per share, central $38.41 per share, high $45.03 per share

- FY2017: low $33.92 per share, central $46.91 per share, high $54.98 per share

- FY2018: low $47.83 per share, central $68.25 per share, high $80.14 per share

- FY2019: low $53.28 per share, central $75.87 per share, high $89.02 per share

- FY2020: low $19.99 per share, central $20.97 per share, high $22.28 per share

- FY2021: low $7.09 per share, central $7.41 per share, high $7.84 per share

- FY2025: low $4.40 per share, central $5.00 per share, high $5.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465926022067/nclh-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.