# Nasdaq (NDAQ.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NDAQ

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:32.989Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $93.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $35.04 per share, central $39.87 per share, high $46.30 per share. Buy at or below the central value $39.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:32.989Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.9% at the stated quote. About 5.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.25×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.24×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.28×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.32×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 31.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 21.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -8.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 39.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 28.7%

- FY2018: 31.8%

- FY2019: 32.6%

- FY2020: 36.1%

- FY2021: 31.2%

- FY2022: 37.0%

- FY2023: 17.2%

- FY2024: 21.9%

- FY2025: 28.0%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 52.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $6.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -11.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -99.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.10×

- FY2022: 1.09×

- FY2023: 1.16×

- FY2024: 1.36×

- FY2025: 1.20×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 28.7% vs 21.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.83 to 2.08 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.9%

- Market cap gain: $44B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $6.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.1%

- Per-share value change: $1.25

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.83

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.08

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $15B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 28.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.21

- FY2017: $1.44

- FY2018: $0.91

- FY2019: $1.55

- FY2020: $1.86

- FY2021: $2.35

- FY2022: $2.26

- FY2023: $2.08

- FY2024: $1.93

- FY2025: $3.09

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.83×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.26×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.71×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.3%

- FY2017: -1.1%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -1.8%

- FY2021: 0.5%

- FY2022: -2.8%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -2.7%

- FY2025: -1.5%

## Holders

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.6% a year for ten years · "Nasdaq's Solutions Revenue Driving Business Gains, Morgan Stanley Says" (finance.yahoo.com, Jan 2026) · sales +5.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:14.799Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-24: Nasdaq Q2 2025 slides: Revenue up 13%, EPS surges 24% on record Index AUM ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/nasdaq-q2-2025-slides-revenue-up-13-eps-surges-24-on-record-index-aum-93CH-4150435))

- 2026-04-24: NDAQ Q1 Deep Dive: AI and Cloud Growth Drive Strong Start for Nasdaq ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ndaq-q1-deep-dive-ai-234123273.html))

- 2026-07-23: Nasdaq Q2 2026 earnings beat on SpaceX IPO, data revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nasdaq-q2-2026-earnings-beat-130944318.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $3.9B 

- FY2018: $4.3B 

- FY2019: $4.3B 

- FY2020: $5.6B 

- FY2021: $5.9B 

- FY2022: $6.2B 

- FY2023: $6.1B 

- FY2024: $7.4B 

- FY2025: $8.3B 

- FY2026: $8.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 59.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: 40.1% 

- FY2018: 38.7% 

- FY2019: 39.1% 

- FY2020: 34.5% 

- FY2021: 37.9% 

- FY2022: 37.6% 

- FY2023: 42.0% 

- FY2024: 40.4% 

- FY2025: 47.7% 

- FY2026: 59.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in financial data & stock exchanges; annual sales are USD 8.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm#000162828026007703 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 8262000000; grossProfit 3939000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NDAQ.US: Nasdaq, Inc. operates as a technology company that serves capital markets and other industries in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services. The company distributes historical and real-time market data; develops and licenses Nasdaq-branded indices and financial products; provides investor relations intelligence, governance solutions, and sustainability solution products for public and private companies, and organizations, as well as insights and workflow solutions; and operates listing platforms. It also offers Verafin, a cloud-based platform to detect, investigate, and report money laundering and financial frauds; AxiomSL, a risk data management and regulatory reporting solution; cloud-enabled and on-premises surveillance solutions to assist in complying with market rules, regulations, and internal market surveillance policies; Calypso, a platform providing cross-asset, front-to-back trading, treasury, risk, and collateral management solutions; and trade management and colocation services, as well as handles assets comprising cash equities, equity derivatives, currencies, various interest-bearing securities, commodities, energy products, and digital currencies. In addition, the company provides equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading and fixed income, currency and commodities trading, and fixed income trading and clearing services, as well as tape plan data services; operates various exchanges, including derivatives, commodities, cash equity, debt, structured products, and exchange traded products; and offers clearing, settlement, and central depository services. The company was formerly known as The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nasdaq, Inc. in September 2015. Nasdaq, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 40.4% to 47.7% during 2023–25; it earns 31.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 42%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2867722712852611],[2018,0.31758555133079847],[2019,0.326216580908681],[2020,0.36050688560317135],[2021,0.3117241145533958],[2022,0.3698014527845036],[2023,0.1716959351833037],[2024,0.2187091646053281],[2025,0.28005330883463986],[2026,0.5284453892407464]]; median 0.3146548329420972. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 616 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 134000000; owner earnings 144000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 144000000; owner earnings 778000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 111000000; owner earnings 557000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 127000000; owner earnings 837000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 188000000; owner earnings 947000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 163000000; owner earnings 1302000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 152000000; owner earnings 1231000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 158000000; owner earnings 1224000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 207000000; owner earnings 1523000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 266000000; owner earnings 2155000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,200000000],[2017,243000000],[2018,280000000],[2019,305000000],[2020,320000000],[2021,350000000],[2022,383000000],[2023,441000000],[2024,541000000],[2025,601000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 616000000 USD.

### What could break it

"System limitations or failures" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); System limitations or failures

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 16%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.15470287327563825. Price 93.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8426586699954681 → FY2025 3.7245223208090703. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $21.32 per share

- 2016-11: $21.36 per share

- 2016-12: $22.37 per share

- 2017-01: $23.51 per share

- 2017-02: $23.70 per share

- 2017-03: $23.15 per share

- 2017-04: $22.96 per share

- 2017-05: $22.55 per share

- 2017-06: $23.83 per share

- 2017-07: $24.79 per share

- 2017-08: $25.13 per share

- 2017-09: $25.86 per share

- 2017-10: $24.22 per share

- 2017-11: $26.39 per share

- 2017-12: $25.61 per share

- 2018-01: $26.97 per share

- 2018-02: $26.92 per share

- 2018-03: $28.74 per share

- 2018-04: $29.44 per share

- 2018-05: $30.62 per share

- 2018-06: $30.42 per share

- 2018-07: $30.47 per share

- 2018-08: $31.81 per share

- 2018-09: $28.60 per share

- 2018-10: $28.90 per share

- 2018-11: $30.44 per share

- 2018-12: $27.19 per share

- 2019-01: $29.35 per share

- 2019-02: $30.52 per share

- 2019-03: $29.16 per share

- 2019-04: $30.73 per share

- 2019-05: $30.21 per share

- 2019-06: $32.06 per share

- 2019-07: $32.12 per share

- 2019-08: $33.28 per share

- 2019-09: $33.12 per share

- 2019-10: $33.26 per share

- 2019-11: $34.93 per share

- 2019-12: $35.70 per share

- 2020-01: $38.82 per share

- 2020-02: $34.18 per share

- 2020-03: $31.65 per share

- 2020-04: $36.56 per share

- 2020-05: $39.49 per share

- 2020-06: $39.82 per share

- 2020-07: $43.77 per share

- 2020-08: $44.81 per share

- 2020-09: $40.90 per share

- 2020-10: $40.33 per share

- 2020-11: $42.66 per share

- 2020-12: $44.25 per share

- 2021-01: $45.09 per share

- 2021-02: $46.10 per share

- 2021-03: $49.15 per share

- 2021-04: $53.85 per share

- 2021-05: $55.82 per share

- 2021-06: $58.60 per share

- 2021-07: $62.24 per share

- 2021-08: $65.26 per share

- 2021-09: $64.34 per share

- 2021-10: $69.96 per share

- 2021-11: $67.74 per share

- 2021-12: $70.00 per share

- 2022-01: $59.74 per share

- 2022-02: $57.05 per share

- 2022-03: $59.40 per share

- 2022-04: $52.46 per share

- 2022-05: $51.75 per share

- 2022-06: $50.85 per share

- 2022-07: $60.30 per share

- 2022-08: $59.53 per share

- 2022-09: $56.68 per share

- 2022-10: $62.24 per share

- 2022-11: $68.46 per share

- 2022-12: $61.35 per share

- 2023-01: $60.19 per share

- 2023-02: $56.06 per share

- 2023-03: $54.67 per share

- 2023-04: $55.37 per share

- 2023-05: $55.35 per share

- 2023-06: $49.85 per share

- 2023-07: $50.49 per share

- 2023-08: $52.48 per share

- 2023-09: $48.59 per share

- 2023-10: $49.60 per share

- 2023-11: $55.84 per share

- 2023-12: $58.14 per share

- 2024-01: $57.77 per share

- 2024-02: $56.20 per share

- 2024-03: $63.10 per share

- 2024-04: $59.85 per share

- 2024-05: $59.03 per share

- 2024-06: $60.26 per share

- 2024-07: $67.68 per share

- 2024-08: $72.08 per share

- 2024-09: $73.01 per share

- 2024-10: $73.92 per share

- 2024-11: $82.99 per share

- 2024-12: $77.31 per share

- 2025-01: $82.34 per share

- 2025-02: $82.78 per share

- 2025-03: $75.86 per share

- 2025-04: $76.21 per share

- 2025-05: $83.54 per share

- 2025-06: $89.42 per share

- 2025-07: $96.22 per share

- 2025-08: $94.74 per share

- 2025-09: $88.45 per share

- 2025-10: $85.49 per share

- 2025-11: $90.92 per share

- 2025-12: $97.13 per share

- 2026-01: $96.89 per share

- 2026-02: $87.58 per share

- 2026-03: $84.89 per share

- 2026-04: $91.91 per share

- 2026-05: $92.52 per share

- 2026-06: $78.82 per share

- 2026-07: $94.19 per share

- 2026-08: $98.61 per share

- 2026-09: $92.01 per share

- 2026-10: $93.48 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $10.59 per share, central $11.89 per share, high $13.63 per share

- FY2017: low $12.17 per share, central $14.70 per share, high $16.97 per share

- FY2018: low $14.04 per share, central $16.77 per share, high $19.31 per share

- FY2019: low $14.33 per share, central $17.68 per share, high $20.45 per share

- FY2020: low $26.32 per share, central $29.17 per share, high $32.96 per share

- FY2021: low $28.42 per share, central $35.40 per share, high $41.16 per share

- FY2022: low $31.46 per share, central $40.32 per share, high $46.95 per share

- FY2023: low $26.80 per share, central $30.35 per share, high $35.09 per share

- FY2024: low $29.27 per share, central $33.16 per share, high $38.33 per share

- FY2025: low $33.29 per share, central $37.72 per share, high $43.62 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:16.880Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.