# Noble (NE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:33.672Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $42.91 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $33.15 per share, central $37.39 per share, high $43.02 per share. Buy at or below the central value $37.39 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:33.672Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.0% at the stated quote. About 9.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 2.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.02×

- FY2018: -0.13×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: -0.15×

- FY2021: -0.09×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -3.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 16.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.0%

- FY2017: -0.2%

- FY2018: -1.5%

- FY2019: 0.5%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: 5.2%

- FY2023: 13.9%

- FY2024: 9.8%

- FY2025: 6.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.83×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.27×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -0.2% vs 9.8%

- Per-share earnings: -2.11 to 2.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -8.6%

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -8.6%

- Per-share value change: $5.07

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.30

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $479M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$5.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -0.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$3.82

- FY2017: -$2.11

- FY2018: -$3.59

- FY2019: -$2.81

- FY2020: -$15.86

- FY2021: $1.77

- FY2022: $1.73

- FY2023: $3.32

- FY2024: $2.96

- FY2025: $1.35

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.71×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.39×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -18.0%

- FY2017: -9.0%

- FY2018: -11.4%

- FY2019: -10.7%

- FY2020: -99.7%

- FY2021: 16.7%

- FY2022: -2.1%

- FY2023: -1.7%

- FY2024: -2.6%

- FY2025: -9.8%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 8% since Oct 2023 · "Full Year 2026 Guidance for Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA reduced; capital expenditures guidance maintained." (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales -6.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:14.888Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-09: Noble Corporation plc (NE) Continues to Slid as Contracting Deals Fail to Materialize ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/noble-corporation-plc-ne-continues-130738056.html))

- 2025-08-05: Noble Corp PLC (NYSE:NE) Q2 2025 Earnings Miss Estimates, Stock Declines Amid Investor Concerns ([chartmill.com](https://www.chartmill.com/news/NE/Chartmill-32402-Noble-Corp-PLC-NYSENE-Q2-2025-Earnings-Miss-Estimates-Stock-Declines-Amid-Investor-Concerns))

- 2026-01-26: Noble jumps after winning $1.3B in new drilling contracts, enters Norway floater market ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4542574-noble-jumps-after-winning-13b-in-new-drilling-contracts-enters-norway-floater-market?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-27: Noble outlines 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $940M-$1.02B as backlog stands at $7.5B ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4580206-noble-outlines-2026-adjusted-ebitda-of-940m-1_02b-as-backlog-stands-at-7_5b?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-28: Noble reports mixed Q2 results; updates FY26 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4619120-noble-reports-mixed-q2-results-updates-fy26-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -6.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1458891/000162828022003005/ne-20211231.htm; observed 2022-02-17.

- FY2017: $1.3B 

- FY2018: $1.1B 

- FY2019: $1.3B 

- FY2020: $964M 

- FY2021: $848M 

- FY2022: $1.4B 

- FY2023: $2.6B 

- FY2024: $3.1B 

- FY2025: $3.3B 

- FY2026: $3.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 19.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1458891/000162828022003005/ne-20211231.htm; observed 2022-02-17.

- FY2016: 42.4% 

- FY2017: 3.5% 

- FY2019: 9.0% 

- FY2022: 21.6% 

- FY2023: 28.7% 

- FY2024: 27.4% 

- FY2025: 19.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas drilling; annual sales are USD 3.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2025: revenue 3285568000; grossProfit 648159000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NE.US: Noble Corporation plc operates as an offshore drilling contractor for the oil and gas industry worldwide. It provides contract drilling services through its fleet of mobile offshore drilling units. The company also operates drilling rigs, such as floaters and jackups. It serves its fleets in Africa, the Far East Asia, the North Sea, the Oceania, South America, and the United States Gulf of America. Noble Corporation plc was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.7% to 28.7% during 2023–25; it earns 2.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08955935453485359],[2017,-0.002484691587129385],[2018,-0.014662590594017724],[2019,0.005179266826987797],[2020,-0.03487797010815274],[2021,-0.048955539093566834],[2022,0.052142125103575965],[2023,0.13874551373211896],[2024,0.09770170997957052],[2025,0.06751455513702533]]; median 0.028660695965281882. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back USD 20 million of shares.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1458891/000162828022003005/ne-20211231.htm (filed 2022-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 169040000; owner earnings 293327000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 32792000; upkeep 141527000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 168948000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1940952245661387.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 215012000; upkeep 194569000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 481902000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4461737033670746.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 206721000; upkeep 368594000; cash acquisitions 417041000; owner earnings 448353000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.3912296784007245.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 519523000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 274298000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,47534000],[2017,56881000],[2018,27579000],[2019,25109000],[2020,0],[2021,1000],[2022,1004000],[2023,98804000],[2024,277831000],[2025,320368000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 20000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 20.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 20.677 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2022-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.02619306262025789. Price 42.91; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.8170588758377053 → FY2025 1.7122008464313805. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-06: $24.73 per share

- 2021-07: $22.00 per share

- 2021-08: $24.35 per share

- 2021-09: $27.06 per share

- 2021-10: $25.16 per share

- 2021-11: $23.36 per share

- 2021-12: $24.81 per share

- 2022-01: $24.69 per share

- 2022-02: $25.81 per share

- 2022-03: $35.05 per share

- 2022-04: $31.93 per share

- 2022-05: $36.28 per share

- 2022-06: $25.35 per share

- 2022-07: $30.00 per share

- 2022-08: $30.35 per share

- 2022-09: $29.58 per share

- 2022-10: $36.04 per share

- 2022-11: $37.13 per share

- 2022-12: $37.71 per share

- 2023-01: $40.69 per share

- 2023-02: $41.69 per share

- 2023-03: $39.47 per share

- 2023-04: $38.45 per share

- 2023-05: $37.74 per share

- 2023-06: $41.31 per share

- 2023-07: $52.27 per share

- 2023-08: $52.74 per share

- 2023-09: $50.65 per share

- 2023-10: $46.69 per share

- 2023-11: $46.14 per share

- 2023-12: $48.16 per share

- 2024-01: $44.13 per share

- 2024-02: $41.81 per share

- 2024-03: $48.49 per share

- 2024-04: $44.38 per share

- 2024-05: $46.46 per share

- 2024-06: $44.65 per share

- 2024-07: $47.22 per share

- 2024-08: $38.15 per share

- 2024-09: $36.14 per share

- 2024-10: $31.98 per share

- 2024-11: $33.47 per share

- 2024-12: $31.40 per share

- 2025-01: $32.05 per share

- 2025-02: $25.90 per share

- 2025-03: $23.70 per share

- 2025-04: $21.74 per share

- 2025-05: $24.77 per share

- 2025-06: $26.55 per share

- 2025-07: $26.81 per share

- 2025-08: $28.82 per share

- 2025-09: $28.28 per share

- 2025-10: $29.35 per share

- 2025-11: $30.62 per share

- 2025-12: $28.24 per share

- 2026-01: $35.62 per share

- 2026-02: $45.43 per share

- 2026-03: $49.07 per share

- 2026-04: $51.03 per share

- 2026-05: $46.48 per share

- 2026-06: $37.30 per share

- 2026-07: $42.40 per share

- 2026-08: $45.83 per share

- 2026-09: $41.74 per share

- 2026-10: $42.91 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $16.59 per share, central $18.50 per share, high $21.04 per share

- FY2023: low $25.42 per share, central $28.63 per share, high $32.90 per share

- FY2024: low $33.55 per share, central $38.00 per share, high $43.93 per share

- FY2025: low $35.40 per share, central $39.93 per share, high $45.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1458891/000162828022003005/ne-20211231.htm); period 2021-12-31, filed 2022-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.