# National Fuel Gas (NFG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NFG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:35.097Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $78.38 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $75.60 per share, central $88.14 per share, high $100.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value $88.14 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:35.097Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.1% at the stated quote. About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.38×

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.30×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.37×

- FY2022: 0.37×

- FY2023: 0.35×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.36×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.40×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 42.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 41.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.0%

- FY2017: 10.9%

- FY2018: 12.9%

- FY2019: 9.3%

- FY2020: 0.5%

- FY2021: 10.7%

- FY2022: 14.3%

- FY2023: 10.1%

- FY2024: 3.3%

- FY2025: 10.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.46×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $928M

- Net income, five-year total: $2.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 22.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.26×

- FY2024: -5.12×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.9% vs 10.1%

- Per-share earnings: -3.43 to 5.17 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Market cap gain: $3.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $8.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$3.43

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.17

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.64

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$3.43

- FY2017: $3.30

- FY2018: $4.53

- FY2019: $3.51

- FY2020: -$1.41

- FY2021: $3.97

- FY2022: $6.15

- FY2023: $5.17

- FY2024: $0.84

- FY2025: $5.68

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.12×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.6%

- FY2017: -6.6%

- FY2018: -3.7%

- FY2019: -6.0%

- FY2020: -12.0%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -9.2%

- FY2024: -11.9%

- FY2025: -6.7%

## Holders

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.4% a year for ten years · sales +9.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:15.247Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-15: National Fuel Gas Fiscal 2026 EPS Seen Beating Estimates on Well Productivity, BofA Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-fuel-gas-fiscal-2026-165007351.html))

- 2026-02-02: National Fuel Gas Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Gas Production Up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-fuel-gas-q1-earnings-134200321.html))

- 2026-08-01: Is National Fuel Gas (NFG) Cheap As Earnings Beat And 2026 Guidance Reset Valuation? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/national-fuel-gas-nfg-cheap-041447913.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70145/000007014525000039/nfg-20250930.htm; observed 2025-11-21.

- FY2017: $1.6B 

- FY2018: $1.6B 

- FY2019: $1.7B 

- FY2020: $1.5B 

- FY2021: $1.7B 

- FY2022: $2.2B 

- FY2023: $2.2B 

- FY2024: $1.9B 

- FY2025: $2.3B 

- FY2026: $2.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 66.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70145/000007014525000039/nfg-20250930.htm; observed 2025-11-21.

- FY2016: 42.2% 

- FY2017: 43.0% 

- FY2018: 37.9% 

- FY2019: 35.5% 

- FY2020: 36.7% 

- FY2021: 43.6% 

- FY2022: 41.3% 

- FY2023: 39.0% 

- FY2024: 42.0% 

- FY2025: 66.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are USD 2.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70145/000007014525000039/nfg-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: revenue 2277541000; grossProfit 1506235000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NFG.US: National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil. It also builds, owns, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and storage services through its underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports and stores natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State. The Utility segment sells natural gas to retail customers; and provides natural gas utility services to various customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York, as well as in Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39% to 66.1% during 2023–25; it earns 10.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 42%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70145/000007014525000039/nfg-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 66.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.09036963616969154],[2017,0.10944719984346687],[2018,0.1291142957508197],[2019,0.09293975615940159],[2020,0.005082563193153097],[2021,0.10724360562314558],[2022,0.14306065721467973],[2023,0.10071600535076297],[2024,0.0333671404971492],[2025,0.10336892138019808]]; median 0.10204246336548053. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 88% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 22.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2017: growth capex 226140000; upkeep 224195000; owner earnings 283482000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.797722606726353.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2018: growth capex 38095719.02014446; upkeep 545908280.9798555; owner earnings 86573719.02014446. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4400379174109424.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2019: growth capex 310690255.5040871; upkeep 478247744.4959129; owner earnings 101702255.50408709. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.0549003457607826.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2021: growth capex 416431000; upkeep 335303000; owner earnings 363647000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1451517543111864.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2022: growth capex 442036000; upkeep 369790000; owner earnings 566021000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7809533568542509.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70145/000007014525000039/nfg-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: growth capex 456227000; upkeep 456594000; owner earnings 518504000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8798909940906917.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); Incremental return on capital 0.22556809071197506, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); Dividend observations: [[2016,134824000],[2017,139063000],[2018,143258000],[2019,147418000],[2020,153322000],[2021,163089000],[2022,168147000],[2023,176096000],[2024,183798000],[2025,188438000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70145/000007014525000039/nfg-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: cash repurchases 59088000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NFG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.2919999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.006511047106120771. Price 78.38; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -12.578222989816473 → FY2025 5.683638743342151. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $52.38 per share

- 2016-11: $56.38 per share

- 2016-12: $56.64 per share

- 2017-01: $56.15 per share

- 2017-02: $60.30 per share

- 2017-03: $59.62 per share

- 2017-04: $55.38 per share

- 2017-05: $56.76 per share

- 2017-06: $55.84 per share

- 2017-07: $59.21 per share

- 2017-08: $57.98 per share

- 2017-09: $56.61 per share

- 2017-10: $58.05 per share

- 2017-11: $58.80 per share

- 2017-12: $54.91 per share

- 2018-01: $55.75 per share

- 2018-02: $49.43 per share

- 2018-03: $51.45 per share

- 2018-04: $51.35 per share

- 2018-05: $52.64 per share

- 2018-06: $52.96 per share

- 2018-07: $53.70 per share

- 2018-08: $55.53 per share

- 2018-09: $56.06 per share

- 2018-10: $54.29 per share

- 2018-11: $53.85 per share

- 2018-12: $51.18 per share

- 2019-01: $57.30 per share

- 2019-02: $60.19 per share

- 2019-03: $60.96 per share

- 2019-04: $59.21 per share

- 2019-05: $53.31 per share

- 2019-06: $52.75 per share

- 2019-07: $47.74 per share

- 2019-08: $46.74 per share

- 2019-09: $46.92 per share

- 2019-10: $45.31 per share

- 2019-11: $45.02 per share

- 2019-12: $46.54 per share

- 2020-01: $43.19 per share

- 2020-02: $36.61 per share

- 2020-03: $37.29 per share

- 2020-04: $41.00 per share

- 2020-05: $41.97 per share

- 2020-06: $41.93 per share

- 2020-07: $40.57 per share

- 2020-08: $45.64 per share

- 2020-09: $40.59 per share

- 2020-10: $39.96 per share

- 2020-11: $41.17 per share

- 2020-12: $41.13 per share

- 2021-01: $40.26 per share

- 2021-02: $45.44 per share

- 2021-03: $49.99 per share

- 2021-04: $49.66 per share

- 2021-05: $51.89 per share

- 2021-06: $52.25 per share

- 2021-07: $51.43 per share

- 2021-08: $51.81 per share

- 2021-09: $52.52 per share

- 2021-10: $57.43 per share

- 2021-11: $57.81 per share

- 2021-12: $63.94 per share

- 2022-01: $60.73 per share

- 2022-02: $62.24 per share

- 2022-03: $68.70 per share

- 2022-04: $70.13 per share

- 2022-05: $73.53 per share

- 2022-06: $66.05 per share

- 2022-07: $72.34 per share

- 2022-08: $71.27 per share

- 2022-09: $61.55 per share

- 2022-10: $67.49 per share

- 2022-11: $66.23 per share

- 2022-12: $63.30 per share

- 2023-01: $58.06 per share

- 2023-02: $57.28 per share

- 2023-03: $57.74 per share

- 2023-04: $55.90 per share

- 2023-05: $50.91 per share

- 2023-06: $51.36 per share

- 2023-07: $53.11 per share

- 2023-08: $53.74 per share

- 2023-09: $51.91 per share

- 2023-10: $50.95 per share

- 2023-11: $50.79 per share

- 2023-12: $50.17 per share

- 2024-01: $47.16 per share

- 2024-02: $48.74 per share

- 2024-03: $53.72 per share

- 2024-04: $53.10 per share

- 2024-05: $57.16 per share

- 2024-06: $54.19 per share

- 2024-07: $58.59 per share

- 2024-08: $59.76 per share

- 2024-09: $60.61 per share

- 2024-10: $60.53 per share

- 2024-11: $63.97 per share

- 2024-12: $60.68 per share

- 2025-01: $70.03 per share

- 2025-02: $75.20 per share

- 2025-03: $79.19 per share

- 2025-04: $76.78 per share

- 2025-05: $82.54 per share

- 2025-06: $84.71 per share

- 2025-07: $86.79 per share

- 2025-08: $86.74 per share

- 2025-09: $92.37 per share

- 2025-10: $78.91 per share

- 2025-11: $82.45 per share

- 2025-12: $80.06 per share

- 2026-01: $83.75 per share

- 2026-02: $91.03 per share

- 2026-03: $93.96 per share

- 2026-04: $84.38 per share

- 2026-05: $77.25 per share

- 2026-06: $77.21 per share

- 2026-07: $82.31 per share

- 2026-08: $83.06 per share

- 2026-09: $75.86 per share

- 2026-10: $78.38 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $34.54 per share, central $38.46 per share, high $43.68 per share

- FY2018: low $13.23 per share, central $14.74 per share, high $16.75 per share

- FY2019: low $11.59 per share, central $13.19 per share, high $15.32 per share

- FY2020: low $10.44 per share, central $11.88 per share, high $13.80 per share

- FY2021: low $12.48 per share, central $14.20 per share, high $16.49 per share

- FY2022: low $16.49 per share, central $19.88 per share, high $23.16 per share

- FY2023: low $15.95 per share, central $18.56 per share, high $21.56 per share

- FY2025: low $59.83 per share, central $71.72 per share, high $83.52 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70145/000007014525000039/nfg-20250930.htm); period 2025-09-30, filed 2025-11-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.