# Mainfreight (NK7.F)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NK7.F

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: NZD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 33.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 20.86 per share, central EUR 23.70 per share, high EUR 27.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 23.70 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NZ 10-year bond 5.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.08×

- FY2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- Recent gross margin fell 24.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 24.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 39.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 19.2%

- FY2020: 11.9%

- FY2021: 12.8%

- FY2022: 20.2%

- FY2023: 20.5%

- FY2024: 10.6%

- FY2025: 10.6%

- FY2026: 9.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: NZD 1.8B

- Net income, five-year total: NZD 1.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.08×

- FY2025: 1.27×

- FY2026: 1.69×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.8% vs 10.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.58 to 2.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Per-share value growth: 9.8%

- Per-share value change: NZD 0.94

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: NZD 1.58

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: NZD 2.52

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: NZD 1.37

- FY2020: NZD 1.58

- FY2021: NZD 1.87

- FY2022: NZD 3.53

- FY2023: NZD 4.24

- FY2024: NZD 2.07

- FY2025: NZD 2.72

- FY2026: NZD 2.52

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.35×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: -7.6%

- FY2022: -4.9%

- FY2023: -9.6%

- FY2024: -7.8%

- FY2025: -7.6%

- FY2026: -7.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 39% since Dec 2021 · sales +3.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.153Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: NZD 3.0B 

- FY2020: NZD 3.1B 

- FY2021: NZD 3.5B 

- FY2022: NZD 5.2B 

- FY2023: NZD 5.7B 

- FY2024: NZD 4.7B 

- FY2025: NZD 5.2B 

- FY2026: NZD 5.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: 39.3% 

- FY2020: 41.7% 

- FY2021: 39.6% 

- FY2022: 35.7% 

- FY2023: 39.3% 

- FY2024: 44.4% 

- FY2025: 42.2% 

- FY2026: 15.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are NZD 5.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2026: revenue 5437483872; grossProfit 839493484; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NK7.F: Mainfreight Limited provides supply chain logistics services in New Zealand, Australia, the Americas, Europe, and Asia. It offers domestic transportation, international air and ocean freight forwarding, warehousing, and supply chain management services. The company was formerly known as Mainfreight Transport Limited and changed its name to Mainfreight Limited in April 1996. Mainfreight Limited was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.4% to 44.4% during 2024–26; it earns 12.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2024-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2025-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 15.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.19163276718176825],[2020,0.11870587285245231],[2021,0.12776603942765086],[2022,0.2017767345565469],[2023,0.20513561805544026],[2024,0.10563518091099497],[2025,0.10569717407224424],[2026,0.09250390267300974]]; median 0.12323595614005159. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2019-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 103276000; owner earnings 87455000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2020-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 160014000; owner earnings 168916000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2021-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 122078000; owner earnings 248430000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2022-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 192870000; owner earnings 363140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2023-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2023: growth capex 84898000; upkeep 238989000; owner earnings 426476000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1990686463013159.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2024-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 275383000; owner earnings 226256000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2025-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 253666000; owner earnings 349537000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MFGHF.US.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 178667168; owner earnings 428882405. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); Dividend observations: [[2019,48335000],[2020,59412000],[2021,64447000],[2022,100699000],[2023,173202000],[2024,173202000],[2025,173202000],[2026,174938158]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 20.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NK7.F SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 20.852999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.652Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.062058151323852395. Price 33.4; FX 0.5012485730593607; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2020-09: EUR 25.98 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 30.51 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 36.39 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 40.24 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 39.68 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 39.52 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 41.17 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 42.25 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 44.13 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 43.95 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 47.05 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 55.36 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 56.13 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 54.30 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 53.28 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 54.34 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 47.67 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 46.58 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 51.00 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 48.82 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 45.03 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 40.34 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 46.57 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 44.51 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 38.69 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 43.18 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 44.25 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 39.23 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 41.68 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 41.24 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 39.43 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 38.98 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 38.15 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 39.09 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 37.31 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 34.76 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 36.07 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 30.89 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 36.97 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 38.83 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 39.74 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 37.21 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 37.79 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 36.98 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 39.41 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 37.33 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 41.35 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 40.96 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 41.21 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 39.23 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 40.60 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 39.45 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 38.87 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 37.64 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 32.02 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 28.48 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 36.52 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 34.30 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 30.27 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 29.64 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 30.46 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 29.25 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 33.04 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 33.38 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 33.49 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 32.20 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 28.39 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 29.20 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 32.80 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 30.20 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 34.78 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 34.32 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 32.35 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 33.37 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2023: low EUR 22.63 per share, central EUR 25.59 per share, high EUR 29.53 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 18.46 per share, central EUR 20.92 per share, high EUR 24.20 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 20.20 per share, central EUR 22.93 per share, high EUR 26.57 per share

- FY2026: low EUR 20.86 per share, central EUR 23.70 per share, high EUR 27.48 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Mainfreight

NK7 · F

NZX 50

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: EUR 33.40
Buy up to: EUR 23.70
Expected / yr: 7.9% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 14.5% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

8y median: 8.1%
Worst year: 6.9%
Latest · 2026: 7.6%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 12.3% (minimum 15%), and gross margin fell 24 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

8y median: 12.3%
Worst year: 9.3%
Latest · 2026: 9.3%

Each $1 of profit left $1.18 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.18×
Annual median: 1.08×
Latest · 2026: 1.69×

Per-share value rose from 1.58 to 2.52, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

8y median: NZD 2.29
Worst year: NZD 1.37
Latest · 2026: NZD 2.52

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -7.7% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

8y median: -7.6%
Worst year: -3.5%
Latest · 2026: -7.7%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 8 (at most 2), mean operating margin 8.5%, three-year average owner earnings per share 3.33 NZD.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2020-09 · Price EUR 25.98; 2020-10 · Price EUR 30.51; 2020-11 · Price EUR 36.39; 2020-12 · Price EUR 40.24; 2021-01 · Price EUR 39.68; 2021-02 · Price EUR 39.52; 2021-03 · Price EUR 41.17; 2021-04 · Price EUR 42.24; 2021-05 · Price EUR 44.13; 2021-06 · Price EUR 43.95; 2021-07 · Price EUR 47.05; 2021-08 · Price EUR 55.36; 2021-09 · Price EUR 56.13; 2021-10 · Price EUR 54.30; 2021-11 · Price EUR 53.28; 2021-12 · Price EUR 54.34; 2022-01 · Price EUR 47.67; 2022-02 · Price EUR 46.58; 2022-03 · Price EUR 51.00; 2022-04 · Price EUR 48.82; 2022-05 · Price EUR 45.03; 2022-06 · Price EUR 40.34; 2022-07 · Price EUR 46.56; 2022-08 · Price EUR 44.51; 2022-09 · Price EUR 38.69; 2022-10 · Price EUR 43.18; 2022-11 · Price EUR 44.25; 2022-12 · Price EUR 39.23; 2023-01 · Price EUR 41.67 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-02 · Price EUR 41.24 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-03 · Price EUR 39.43 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-04 · Price EUR 38.98 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-05 · Price EUR 38.15 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-06 · Price EUR 39.09 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-07 · Price EUR 37.31 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-08 · Price EUR 34.76 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-09 · Price EUR 36.07 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-10 · Price EUR 30.89 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-11 · Price EUR 36.97 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2023-12 · Price EUR 38.83 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2024-01 · Price EUR 39.74 · Value 25.59 · Buy at or below 25.59; 2024-02 · Price EUR 37.21 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-03 · Price EUR 37.79 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-04 · Price EUR 36.98 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-05 · Price EUR 39.41 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-06 · Price EUR 37.33 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-07 · Price EUR 41.35 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-08 · Price EUR 40.96 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-09 · Price EUR 41.21 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-10 · Price EUR 39.23 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-11 · Price EUR 40.60 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2024-12 · Price EUR 39.45 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2025-01 · Price EUR 38.87 · Value 20.92 · Buy at or below 20.92; 2025-02 · Price EUR 37.64 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-03 · Price EUR 32.02 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-04 · Price EUR 28.48 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-05 · Price EUR 36.52 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-06 · Price EUR 34.30 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-07 · Price EUR 30.27 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-08 · Price EUR 29.64 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-09 · Price EUR 30.45 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-10 · Price EUR 29.25 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-11 · Price EUR 33.04 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2025-12 · Price EUR 33.38 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2026-01 · Price EUR 33.48 · Value 22.93 · Buy at or below 22.93; 2026-02 · Price EUR 32.20 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-03 · Price EUR 28.39 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-04 · Price EUR 29.20 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-05 · Price EUR 32.80 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-06 · Price EUR 30.20 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-07 · Price EUR 34.78 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-08 · Price EUR 34.31 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-09 · Price EUR 32.35 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-10 · Price EUR 33.37 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70; 2026-10 · Price EUR 33.40 · Value 23.70 · Buy at or below 23.70

EUR per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	EUR 20.86 – EUR 27.48
Buy at or below	Central value EUR 23.70
Discount to value	1 − 33.40 / 23.70 = -40.9%
Return / year	About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash EUR 1.88/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash EUR 0.27/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueNZD 5.4B

Revenue

Owner earningsNZD 429M

Owner earnings

Operating margin7.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtNZD -1.3B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares101M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026