# Northern Oil & Gas (NOG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NOG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:37.615Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $25.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 8.84×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.44×

- FY2017: 0.27×

- FY2018: 0.88×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: -2.60×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.43×

- FY2023: 0.52×

- FY2024: 0.38×

- FY2025: 0.25×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 12.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -15.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 39.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 27.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 71.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -2.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.5%

- FY2017: 3.5%

- FY2018: 33.9%

- FY2019: 2.6%

- FY2020: -92.3%

- FY2021: 7.5%

- FY2022: 37.5%

- FY2023: 26.7%

- FY2024: 13.7%

- FY2025: 8.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.13×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $295M

- Net income, five-year total: $2.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 24.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 13.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.12×

- FY2024: -0.59×

- FY2025: -1.73×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.5% vs 13.7%

- Per-share earnings: -4.80 to 5.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 18.4%

- Market cap gain: $1.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 18.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $9.94

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$4.80

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.55

- Average buyback yield: 1.8%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$4.80

- FY2017: -$0.15

- FY2018: $6.07

- FY2019: -$1.97

- FY2020: -$21.20

- FY2021: $0.10

- FY2022: $8.92

- FY2023: $10.03

- FY2024: $5.14

- FY2025: $0.39

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -27.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.77×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 38.84×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -91.6%

- FY2017: -13.0%

- FY2018: -6.7%

- FY2019: -21.8%

- FY2020: -141.9%

- FY2021: -25.6%

- FY2022: -5.4%

- FY2023: -5.8%

- FY2024: -15.9%

- FY2025: -27.1%

## Holders

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 41% since Nov 2024 · "Impairment Charge: $115.6 million noncash impairment due to lower oil prices." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +11.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:15.791Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-11-01: Northern Oil and Gas (NOG): Updated 2025 Production Guidance Prompts Fresh Look at Valuation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/northern-oil-gas-nog-updated-061527448.html))

- 2026-07-13: Northern Oil reiterates 2026 production/capex outlook, boosts buyback authorization to $243M ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4613220-northern-oil-reiterates-2026-production-capex-outlook-boosts-buyback-authorization-to-243m?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-08: Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) Beat Q2 Estimates With Record Gas Production ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/northern-oil-gas-nog-beat-061259260.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000008/nog-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $160M 

- FY2017: $224M 

- FY2018: $494M 

- FY2019: $601M 

- FY2020: $324M 

- FY2021: $975M 

- FY2022: $2.0B 

- FY2023: $2.2B 

- FY2024: $2.2B 

- FY2025: $2.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 27.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000008/nog-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 23.3% 

- FY2017: 42.0% 

- FY2018: 53.1% 

- FY2019: 35.7% 

- FY2020: 4.9% 

- FY2021: 60.1% 

- FY2022: 66.3% 

- FY2023: 42.2% 

- FY2024: 37.6% 

- FY2025: 27.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000008/nog-20251231.htm#000110448526000008 (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 2475723000; grossProfit 675200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.3% to 42.2% during 2023–25; it earns 8.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 42.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000008/nog-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 27.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.15465241951109657],[2017,0.03499574221600141],[2018,0.33907855270845244],[2019,0.02640522635747042],[2020,-0.922888235285949],[2021,0.07451563331099499],[2022,0.37466035673583153],[2023,0.2670107801859855],[2024,0.13679392891335235],[2025,0.08852356162651263]]; median 0.08151959746875381. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years; bought back USD 57 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 354806602; upkeep 119779675; owner earnings 143689000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.4692676683670984.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 452956000; upkeep 140828000; owner earnings 6361000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 71.20830058166955.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 1108504000; upkeep 251272000; owner earnings 773237000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.433588925517015.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,614369444],[2019,70868000],[2020,34150000],[2021,34150000],[2022,73266000],[2023,123945000],[2024,161969000],[2025,173404000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000008/nog-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 57012000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NOG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.907 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 1 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Closing price 25.75 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 24.92814182743442; price multiple 1.032969090847401. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.6754805527087674. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $21.00 per share

- 2016-11: $22.50 per share

- 2016-12: $27.50 per share

- 2017-01: $36.00 per share

- 2017-02: $30.00 per share

- 2017-03: $26.00 per share

- 2017-04: $22.50 per share

- 2017-05: $16.50 per share

- 2017-06: $14.00 per share

- 2017-07: $12.50 per share

- 2017-08: $8.50 per share

- 2017-09: $9.00 per share

- 2017-10: $8.00 per share

- 2017-11: $17.00 per share

- 2017-12: $20.50 per share

- 2018-01: $19.90 per share

- 2018-02: $20.70 per share

- 2018-03: $19.80 per share

- 2018-04: $16.70 per share

- 2018-05: $27.10 per share

- 2018-06: $31.50 per share

- 2018-07: $37.20 per share

- 2018-08: $34.50 per share

- 2018-09: $40.00 per share

- 2018-10: $29.40 per share

- 2018-11: $25.40 per share

- 2018-12: $22.60 per share

- 2019-01: $25.30 per share

- 2019-02: $23.70 per share

- 2019-03: $27.40 per share

- 2019-04: $26.50 per share

- 2019-05: $19.90 per share

- 2019-06: $19.30 per share

- 2019-07: $16.20 per share

- 2019-08: $18.40 per share

- 2019-09: $19.60 per share

- 2019-10: $19.60 per share

- 2019-11: $17.80 per share

- 2019-12: $23.40 per share

- 2020-01: $16.60 per share

- 2020-02: $14.50 per share

- 2020-03: $6.60 per share

- 2020-04: $8.40 per share

- 2020-05: $7.80 per share

- 2020-06: $8.40 per share

- 2020-07: $8.00 per share

- 2020-08: $6.80 per share

- 2020-09: $5.74 per share

- 2020-10: $3.70 per share

- 2020-11: $6.25 per share

- 2020-12: $8.76 per share

- 2021-01: $10.20 per share

- 2021-02: $13.28 per share

- 2021-03: $12.08 per share

- 2021-04: $14.48 per share

- 2021-05: $18.21 per share

- 2021-06: $20.77 per share

- 2021-07: $17.27 per share

- 2021-08: $16.60 per share

- 2021-09: $21.40 per share

- 2021-10: $23.16 per share

- 2021-11: $20.38 per share

- 2021-12: $20.58 per share

- 2022-01: $23.52 per share

- 2022-02: $25.08 per share

- 2022-03: $28.19 per share

- 2022-04: $24.98 per share

- 2022-05: $32.69 per share

- 2022-06: $25.26 per share

- 2022-07: $28.83 per share

- 2022-08: $31.64 per share

- 2022-09: $27.41 per share

- 2022-10: $34.14 per share

- 2022-11: $36.39 per share

- 2022-12: $30.82 per share

- 2023-01: $33.52 per share

- 2023-02: $31.04 per share

- 2023-03: $30.35 per share

- 2023-04: $33.17 per share

- 2023-05: $29.91 per share

- 2023-06: $34.32 per share

- 2023-07: $39.37 per share

- 2023-08: $41.83 per share

- 2023-09: $40.23 per share

- 2023-10: $38.34 per share

- 2023-11: $37.42 per share

- 2023-12: $37.07 per share

- 2024-01: $33.50 per share

- 2024-02: $35.73 per share

- 2024-03: $39.68 per share

- 2024-04: $40.79 per share

- 2024-05: $40.93 per share

- 2024-06: $37.17 per share

- 2024-07: $43.19 per share

- 2024-08: $39.78 per share

- 2024-09: $35.41 per share

- 2024-10: $36.25 per share

- 2024-11: $43.49 per share

- 2024-12: $37.16 per share

- 2025-01: $35.95 per share

- 2025-02: $31.50 per share

- 2025-03: $30.23 per share

- 2025-04: $24.30 per share

- 2025-05: $26.58 per share

- 2025-06: $28.35 per share

- 2025-07: $28.16 per share

- 2025-08: $26.16 per share

- 2025-09: $24.80 per share

- 2025-10: $22.13 per share

- 2025-11: $22.39 per share

- 2025-12: $21.47 per share

- 2026-01: $25.00 per share

- 2026-02: $27.59 per share

- 2026-03: $29.23 per share

- 2026-04: $27.16 per share

- 2026-05: $21.77 per share

- 2026-06: $18.15 per share

- 2026-07: $21.15 per share

- 2026-08: $26.01 per share

- 2026-09: $22.88 per share

- 2026-10: $25.75 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $4.16 per share, central $4.72 per share, high $5.47 per share

- FY2022: low $2.03 per share, central $2.90 per share, high $3.41 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:21.389Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104485/000110448526000008/nog-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.