# Nokia Oyj (NOKIA.HE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NOKIA.HE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:53.851Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 8.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 4.23 per share, central EUR 4.70 per share, high EUR 5.32 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 4.70 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:53.851Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FI 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.01×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.05×

- FY2017: 0.00×

- FY2018: -0.00×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 39.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 42.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.9%

- FY2017: 0.2%

- FY2018: -0.7%

- FY2019: 5.9%

- FY2020: 10.5%

- FY2021: 23.2%

- FY2022: 19.3%

- FY2023: 8.8%

- FY2024: 15.2%

- FY2025: 8.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.19×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 10B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 8.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 29.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.23×

- FY2022: 1.08×

- FY2023: 1.35×

- FY2024: 1.29×

- FY2025: 1.50×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -0.7% vs 8.9%

- Per-share earnings: -0.13 to 0.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: EUR 4.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR -1.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.25

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR -0.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.12

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.26

- Average buyback yield: 2.1%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: EUR 11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 3.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -0.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR -0.13

- FY2017: EUR -0.27

- FY2018: EUR -0.06

- FY2019: EUR 0.00

- FY2020: EUR -0.43

- FY2021: EUR 0.28

- FY2022: EUR 0.75

- FY2023: EUR 0.12

- FY2024: EUR 0.23

- FY2025: EUR 0.11

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 16.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.29×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.35×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.5%

- FY2017: -8.1%

- FY2018: -1.8%

- FY2019: -1.0%

- FY2020: -11.5%

- FY2021: -2.5%

- FY2022: 6.5%

- FY2023: -1.6%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -3.8%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since May 2026 · "Nokia Cuts Outlook Due to Currency, Tariff Headwinds" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +3.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.206Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-22: Nokia Cuts Outlook Due to Currency, Tariff Headwinds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c2a81e2b-9fd6-3126-a422-92b814667fba/nokia-cuts-outlook-due-to.html))

- 2025-09-08: Super Micro Teams With Nokia To Tackle Surging AI And Cloud Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-teams-nokia-tackle-100553967.html))

- 2025-10-28: Nokia Shares Soar After Nvidia Agrees to Invest $1 Billion in Finnish Telecom Giant ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nokia-shares-soar-nvidia-agrees-194830327.html))

- 2025-11-19: Nokia stock falls as today’s CMD event yields no new deals ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nokia-stock-falls-today-cmd-141219176.html))

- 2026-04-23: AI boom lifts Nokia sales, shares hit 16-year high after earnings beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/nokia-beats-first-quarter-estimates-050749869.html))

- 2026-05-26: Nokia Surges 140% As AI Infrastructure Demand Reshapes Investor View ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nokia-surges-140-ai-infrastructure-181754919.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: EUR 24B 

- FY2017: EUR 23B 

- FY2018: EUR 23B 

- FY2019: EUR 23B 

- FY2020: EUR 22B 

- FY2021: EUR 22B 

- FY2022: EUR 25B 

- FY2023: EUR 22B 

- FY2024: EUR 19B 

- FY2025: EUR 20B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 42.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: 35.8% 

- FY2017: 39.5% 

- FY2018: 37.4% 

- FY2019: 35.7% 

- FY2020: 37.6% 

- FY2021: 39.8% 

- FY2022: 41.0% 

- FY2023: 39.7% 

- FY2024: 46.1% 

- FY2025: 42.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in communication equipment; annual sales are EUR 19.9 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: revenue 19889000000; grossProfit 8369000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NOKIA.HE: Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications. It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services. In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, private wireless and industrial edge, and network APIs. Further, it licenses intellectual property, including patents, technologies, and the Nokia brand. The company serves its products and services to defense communications energy and resources, enterprise and industrial campus, private networks, public sector, and transportation industries. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39.7% to 46.1% during 2023–25; it earns 8.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.09903133903133902],[2017,0.0020810009878169246],[2018,-0.0071236435885679355],[2019,0.059223192299082156],[2020,0.1047945205479452],[2021,0.23203151642707043],[2022,0.1927971388172669],[2023,0.08849814486207452],[2024,0.1520467812860275],[2025,0.08855047698792047]]; median 0.08852431092499749. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 41% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3978920817944329],[2022,0.4103408132953314],[2023,0.39707071614700334]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 624 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 477000000; owner earnings 351000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 672000000; owner earnings 443000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 690000000; owner earnings 806000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 560000000; owner earnings 1991200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 601000000; owner earnings 4580600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 652000000; owner earnings 900600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 472000000; owner earnings 1646400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 606000000; owner earnings 942000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,1514000000],[2017,970000000],[2018,1081000000],[2019,560000000],[2020,148000000],[2021,9000000],[2022,353000000],[2023,611000000],[2024,723000000],[2025,753000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 624000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NOKIA.HE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.678000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 12.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12141605233315744. Price 8.4; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.6262227746988773 → FY2025 0.16772668029371754. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 4.07 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 4.06 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 4.59 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 4.15 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 4.84 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 5.03 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 5.25 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 5.65 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 5.36 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 5.38 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 5.21 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 5.08 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 4.22 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 4.22 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 3.89 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 3.88 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 4.80 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 4.49 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 4.98 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 4.94 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 4.93 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 4.65 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 4.80 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 4.78 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 5.00 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 4.86 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 5.03 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 5.51 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 5.32 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 5.07 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 4.68 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 4.48 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 4.37 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 4.88 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 4.50 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 4.65 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 3.29 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 3.21 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 3.30 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 3.52 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 3.45 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 2.87 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 3.32 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 3.57 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 3.89 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 4.06 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 4.07 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 3.35 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 2.90 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 3.35 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 3.15 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 3.96 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 3.30 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 3.40 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 3.94 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 4.25 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 4.52 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 5.17 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 5.08 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 4.76 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 4.97 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 4.91 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 5.57 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 5.25 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 4.84 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 4.99 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 4.87 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 4.68 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 4.44 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 5.10 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 5.01 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 4.42 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 4.51 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 4.65 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 4.33 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 4.35 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 4.38 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 4.52 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 3.84 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 3.80 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 3.84 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 3.58 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 3.69 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 3.57 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 3.14 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 3.22 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 3.05 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 3.32 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 3.26 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 3.29 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 3.41 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 3.59 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 3.56 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 3.62 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 3.98 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 3.92 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 4.33 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 3.98 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 4.27 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 4.54 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 4.63 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 4.84 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 4.39 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 4.58 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 4.41 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 3.59 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 3.68 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 4.08 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 5.86 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 5.24 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 5.57 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 5.42 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 6.48 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 6.80 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 10.61 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 12.49 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 11.56 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 7.96 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 8.73 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 9.02 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 8.73 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 2.25 per share, central EUR 2.34 per share, high EUR 2.46 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 2.12 per share, central EUR 2.22 per share, high EUR 2.34 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 2.05 per share, central EUR 2.17 per share, high EUR 2.33 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 1.90 per share, central EUR 2.03 per share, high EUR 2.19 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 2.03 per share, central EUR 2.11 per share, high EUR 2.23 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 2.44 per share, central EUR 2.55 per share, high EUR 2.71 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 3.20 per share, central EUR 3.43 per share, high EUR 3.73 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 3.12 per share, central EUR 3.36 per share, high EUR 3.69 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 4.84 per share, central EUR 5.29 per share, high EUR 5.90 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 4.39 per share, central EUR 4.85 per share, high EUR 5.45 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:38.368Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/0/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/549300A0JPRWG1KI7U06-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.