# NRG Energy (NRG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NRG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:39.916Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $102.86 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $93.90 per share, central $106.85 per share, high $124.08 per share. Buy at or below the central value $106.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:39.916Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.3% at the stated quote. About 10.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.90×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.08×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.01×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.6%

- FY2018: 23.3%

- FY2019: 18.0%

- FY2020: 11.9%

- FY2021: 26.0%

- FY2022: 14.7%

- FY2023: 3.7%

- FY2024: 25.1%

- FY2025: 22.8%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 8.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.64×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $8.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.26×

- FY2022: 1.28×

- FY2023: -2.45×

- FY2024: 1.83×

- FY2025: 1.94×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.2% vs 22.8%

- Per-share earnings: -6.79 to 4.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.2%

- Market cap gain: $26B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $11.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$6.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.34

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.21

- Average buyback yield: 6.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $6.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 22.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.45

- FY2017: -$6.79

- FY2018: $0.87

- FY2019: $16.81

- FY2020: $2.07

- FY2021: $8.93

- FY2022: $5.17

- FY2023: -$0.89

- FY2024: $5.31

- FY2025: $4.34

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.21×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 4.36×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.8%

- FY2017: -16.1%

- FY2018: -10.4%

- FY2019: 24.1%

- FY2020: -8.9%

- FY2021: 7.3%

- FY2022: 3.0%

- FY2023: 0.1%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -3.6%

## Holders

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 43% since Feb 2026 · "NRG Energy Weighs AI Power Demand Against Debt And Gas Risks" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:16.316Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-12: NRG Energy bets on growing power demand with $12 billion assets deal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nrg-energy-bets-growing-power-110838725.html))

- 2025-06-13: NRG Energy CEO Coben expects data center deals all over US ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4457843-nrg-energy-ceo-coben-expects-data-center-deals-all-over-us?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-08-07: NRG Energy (NRG) Slashes 13.6% After Swing to Net Loss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nrg-energy-nrg-slashes-13-160737995.html))

- 2025-09-17: NRG Energy, Inc. Raises 2025 Guidance and Announces Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nrg-energy-inc-raises-2025-203000328.html))

- 2026-02-24: NRG Energy Doubles Generation Capacity and Targets 14% EPS Growth Through 2030 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nrg-energy-doubles-generation-capacity-145633466.html))

- 2026-03-26: NRG Energy Weighs AI Power Demand Against Debt And Gas Risks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/nrg-energy-weighs-ai-power-210445235.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000101387126000004/nrg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $9.1B 

- FY2018: $9.5B 

- FY2019: $9.8B 

- FY2020: $9.1B 

- FY2021: $27B 

- FY2022: $32B 

- FY2023: $29B 

- FY2024: $28B 

- FY2025: $31B 

- FY2026: $33B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 19.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000101387126000004/nrg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: 24.1% 

- FY2018: 25.0% 

- FY2019: 25.6% 

- FY2020: 28.1% 

- FY2021: 24.1% 

- FY2022: 13.0% 

- FY2023: 8.0% 

- FY2024: 21.4% 

- FY2025: 21.8% 

- FY2026: 19.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities independent power producers; annual sales are USD 30.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 30710000000; grossProfit 6710000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NRG.US: NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8% to 21.8% during 2023–25; it earns 16.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.0757394229525165],[2018,0.23302349166914707],[2019,0.17964071856287425],[2020,0.11877125337340497],[2021,0.25967356637815575],[2022,0.14742750468942123],[2023,0.03673973598159138],[2024,0.25137310368628935],[2025,0.2280095072432675],[2026,0.08432380209940052]]; median 0.16353411162614773. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 35.6% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 388000000; cash acquisitions 243000000; owner earnings 420000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5785714285714286.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 228000000; cash acquisitions 355000000; owner earnings 4707000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07541958784788613.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 230000000; owner earnings 839000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 269000000; owner earnings 2754000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 373000000; cash acquisitions 62000000; owner earnings 1568000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.039540816326530615.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 598000000; cash acquisitions 2523000000; owner earnings 495000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 5.096969696969697.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 472000000; cash acquisitions 38000000; owner earnings 2056000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01848249027237354.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1147000000; cash acquisitions 596000000; owner earnings 1672000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.35645933014354064.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,76000000],[2017,38000000],[2018,37000000],[2019,32000000],[2020,295000000],[2021,319000000],[2022,332000000],[2023,381000000],[2024,405000000],[2025,411000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NRG.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 1403000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NRG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.457 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"NRG may not have sufficient liquidity to hedge market risks effectively." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000101387126000004/nrg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); NRG may not have sufficient liquidity to hedge market risks effectively.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.006761634041508292. Price 102.86; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -18.595744680851062 → FY2025 8.402010050251256. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $10.63 per share

- 2016-11: $11.34 per share

- 2016-12: $12.26 per share

- 2017-01: $16.54 per share

- 2017-02: $16.56 per share

- 2017-03: $18.70 per share

- 2017-04: $16.90 per share

- 2017-05: $16.06 per share

- 2017-06: $17.22 per share

- 2017-07: $24.62 per share

- 2017-08: $24.91 per share

- 2017-09: $25.59 per share

- 2017-10: $25.00 per share

- 2017-11: $27.65 per share

- 2017-12: $28.48 per share

- 2018-01: $26.01 per share

- 2018-02: $25.86 per share

- 2018-03: $30.53 per share

- 2018-04: $31.00 per share

- 2018-05: $34.23 per share

- 2018-06: $30.70 per share

- 2018-07: $31.67 per share

- 2018-08: $35.39 per share

- 2018-09: $37.40 per share

- 2018-10: $36.19 per share

- 2018-11: $38.43 per share

- 2018-12: $39.60 per share

- 2019-01: $40.91 per share

- 2019-02: $41.68 per share

- 2019-03: $42.48 per share

- 2019-04: $41.17 per share

- 2019-05: $34.04 per share

- 2019-06: $35.12 per share

- 2019-07: $34.14 per share

- 2019-08: $36.40 per share

- 2019-09: $39.60 per share

- 2019-10: $40.12 per share

- 2019-11: $39.73 per share

- 2019-12: $39.75 per share

- 2020-01: $36.89 per share

- 2020-02: $33.21 per share

- 2020-03: $27.26 per share

- 2020-04: $33.53 per share

- 2020-05: $36.05 per share

- 2020-06: $32.56 per share

- 2020-07: $33.81 per share

- 2020-08: $34.41 per share

- 2020-09: $30.74 per share

- 2020-10: $31.62 per share

- 2020-11: $32.75 per share

- 2020-12: $37.55 per share

- 2021-01: $41.41 per share

- 2021-02: $36.51 per share

- 2021-03: $37.73 per share

- 2021-04: $35.82 per share

- 2021-05: $32.15 per share

- 2021-06: $40.30 per share

- 2021-07: $41.24 per share

- 2021-08: $45.67 per share

- 2021-09: $40.83 per share

- 2021-10: $39.89 per share

- 2021-11: $36.02 per share

- 2021-12: $43.08 per share

- 2022-01: $39.93 per share

- 2022-02: $37.84 per share

- 2022-03: $38.36 per share

- 2022-04: $35.90 per share

- 2022-05: $46.04 per share

- 2022-06: $38.17 per share

- 2022-07: $37.75 per share

- 2022-08: $41.28 per share

- 2022-09: $38.27 per share

- 2022-10: $44.40 per share

- 2022-11: $42.45 per share

- 2022-12: $31.82 per share

- 2023-01: $34.22 per share

- 2023-02: $32.79 per share

- 2023-03: $34.29 per share

- 2023-04: $34.17 per share

- 2023-05: $33.79 per share

- 2023-06: $37.39 per share

- 2023-07: $37.99 per share

- 2023-08: $37.55 per share

- 2023-09: $38.52 per share

- 2023-10: $42.38 per share

- 2023-11: $47.84 per share

- 2023-12: $51.70 per share

- 2024-01: $53.04 per share

- 2024-02: $55.32 per share

- 2024-03: $67.69 per share

- 2024-04: $72.67 per share

- 2024-05: $81.00 per share

- 2024-06: $77.86 per share

- 2024-07: $75.17 per share

- 2024-08: $85.01 per share

- 2024-09: $91.10 per share

- 2024-10: $90.40 per share

- 2024-11: $101.61 per share

- 2024-12: $90.22 per share

- 2025-01: $102.44 per share

- 2025-02: $105.71 per share

- 2025-03: $95.46 per share

- 2025-04: $109.58 per share

- 2025-05: $155.90 per share

- 2025-06: $160.58 per share

- 2025-07: $167.20 per share

- 2025-08: $145.56 per share

- 2025-09: $161.95 per share

- 2025-10: $171.86 per share

- 2025-11: $169.49 per share

- 2025-12: $159.24 per share

- 2026-01: $152.63 per share

- 2026-02: $178.96 per share

- 2026-03: $146.14 per share

- 2026-04: $155.58 per share

- 2026-05: $134.08 per share

- 2026-06: $146.06 per share

- 2026-07: $134.29 per share

- 2026-08: $110.12 per share

- 2026-09: $95.65 per share

- 2026-10: $102.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $33.04 per share, central $35.51 per share, high $38.79 per share

- FY2021: low $138.18 per share, central $197.40 per share, high $231.88 per share

- FY2022: low $134.80 per share, central $153.38 per share, high $178.12 per share

- FY2023: low $127.49 per share, central $145.07 per share, high $168.47 per share

- FY2024: low $107.91 per share, central $122.52 per share, high $141.98 per share

- FY2025: low $123.56 per share, central $136.22 per share, high $153.08 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:23.586Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013871/000101387126000004/nrg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.