# Nestle (NSRGY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NSRGY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:41.267Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: CHF.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $97.78 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $42.69 per share, central $48.29 per share, high $55.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value $48.29 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:41.267Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.3% at the stated quote. About 6.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.16×

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.16×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 18.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 48.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 45.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 20.8%

- FY2017: 20.5%

- FY2018: 20.7%

- FY2019: 26.1%

- FY2020: 23.5%

- FY2021: 18.8%

- FY2022: 16.0%

- FY2023: 20.7%

- FY2024: 18.6%

- FY2025: 18.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.88×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CHF 50B

- Net income, five-year total: CHF 57B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 8.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.94×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.76×

- FY2024: 0.78×

- FY2025: 0.92×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.7% vs 18.6%

- Per-share earnings: 2.74 to 4.19 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: CHF 26B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CHF -20B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.2%

- Per-share value change: CHF 1.44

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CHF 2.74

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CHF 4.19

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.22

- Average buyback yield: 2.5%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CHF 38B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CHF 108B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CHF 2.74

- FY2017: CHF 2.32

- FY2018: CHF 3.37

- FY2019: CHF 4.32

- FY2020: CHF 4.32

- FY2021: CHF 6.07

- FY2022: CHF 3.46

- FY2023: CHF 4.25

- FY2024: CHF 4.19

- FY2025: CHF 3.34

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.14×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.76×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.35×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.3%

- FY2017: -5.3%

- FY2018: -3.8%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: -1.7%

- FY2021: 2.2%

- FY2022: -2.0%

- FY2023: -3.7%

- FY2024: -4.2%

- FY2025: -5.2%

## Holders

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 30% since Dec 2021 · "CHF 3.51, driven by lower net profit.                   in the second half of the year." (NSRGY filing, Feb 2026) · sales -6.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:16.696Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: Nestle Sales Get Boost From Coffee, Chocolate Price Hikes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0ac80023-2066-333f-a993-20e263766940/nestle-sales-get-boost-from.html))

- 2025-07-24: Nestle struggles amid weak China market ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-struggles-amid-weak-china-084253328.html))

- 2025-10-16: Nestle to axe 16,000 jobs around world over next two years in cost-cutting drive ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-axe-16-000-jobs-075633857.html))

- 2026-02-19: Nestle in talks to sell ice cream arm as formula recall squeezes profits ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-talks-sell-ice-cream-081003987.html))

- 2026-04-23: Nestle sales slump under strong franc but volumes recover ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nestle-sales-slump-under-strong-113413528.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -6.8%; source https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: CHF 90B 

- FY2017: CHF 90B 

- FY2018: CHF 92B 

- FY2019: CHF 93B 

- FY2020: CHF 84B 

- FY2021: CHF 87B 

- FY2022: CHF 94B 

- FY2023: CHF 93B 

- FY2024: CHF 92B 

- FY2025: CHF 85B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 45.6%; source https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 50.8% 

- FY2017: 49.3% 

- FY2018: 49.8% 

- FY2019: 49.6% 

- FY2020: 49.2% 

- FY2021: 47.8% 

- FY2022: 45.2% 

- FY2023: 46.1% 

- FY2024: 46.9% 

- FY2025: 45.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are CHF 85.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 85466790000; grossProfit 38961931000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NSRGY.US: Nestlé S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes food and beverage, and nutritional science products in the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Greater China, the Philippines, India, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, and internationally. The company offers cereals, chocolate and confectionery, coffee, culinary, chilled and frozen food, dairy, drinks, food service, ice cream, nutrition and health, petcare, water, plant-based portfolio, and recipe products. It sells its products under the Nesquik Cereal, Fitness, Cheerios, Lion Cereals, Cini Minis, KitKat Cereal, Chocapic, Koko Krunch, Shreddies, Shredded Wheat Original, Corn Flakes, Trix Cereal, Aero, Baci Perugina, KitKat, Milkybar, Smarties, Cailler, Quality Street, Garoto, Nestlé Toll House, Munch, Damak, Hsu Fu Chi, Sahne Nuss, Nestlé Sustainably Sourced Cocoa, Blue Bottle Coffee, Nescafé, Nescafé Dolce Gusto, Nespresso, Starbucks Coffee At Home, DiGiorno, Garden Gourmet, Maggi, Thomy, Stouffer's, Hot Pockets, Lean Cuisine, Life Cuisine, Buitoni, Nestlé carnation, Nestlé Coffee Mate, and Nestea brands. The company also offers its products under the Roastelier by Nescafé, Plant-based and so good!, Milo, Chef, Maggi Professional, La Lechera, Minor's, Antica Gelateria Del Corso, Drumstick, Extrême, Häagen-Dazs, Maxibon, Mövenpick, Nancare, Gerber, Cerelac, Nestum, Alfaré HMO, Athéra HMO, Alfamino HMO, Bear Brand, Nido, Orgain, Nestlé Vital, Garden of Life, Pure Encapsulations, Solgar, Compleat, Impact, Peptamen, Vitaflo, Resource, Cat Chow, Dentalife, Dog Chow, Fancy Feast, Felix, Friskies, Gourmet, Purina, Purina ONE, Purina Pro Plan, Purina Pro Plan Veterinary Diets, Acqua Panna, Nestlé Pure Life, Perrier, S.Pellegrino, Sanpellegrino, Buxton, Erikli, Levissima, Vittel, Contrex, HENNIEZ, Hépar, La Vie, Naleczowianka, and Essentia brands. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Vevey, Switzerland. Aimmune Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Nestlé S.A.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 45.6% to 46.9% during 2023–25; it earns 20.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 46.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.9%.

- Source: https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 45.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.20783988539866338],[2017,0.2054961496917727],[2018,0.20730797913161225],[2019,0.2611486954369767],[2020,0.23540791848580406],[2021,0.18758118373439808],[2022,0.16015822581667308],[2023,0.20745979699501163],[2024,0.18613065049932928],[2025,0.18644308634455536]]; median 0.20640206441169248. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"Pricing contribution was        improved significantly." (NSRGY filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report (filed 2026-02-19); Pricing contribution was        improved significantly.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CHF 203.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 4010000000; owner earnings 7653000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 4000000; upkeep 3934000000; owner earnings 7156000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0005589714924538849.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 3869000000; owner earnings 10190000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 263059923.33206654; upkeep 3947940076.6679335; owner earnings 12374059923.332066. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02125898249741385.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4364000000; owner earnings 11333000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 884611802.5788288; upkeep 4456388197.421171; owner earnings 15888611802.578829. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05567583962465811.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 1820000000; upkeep 3541000000; owner earnings 9270000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19633225458468176.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6203000000; owner earnings 8464000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 5963000000; owner earnings 8503000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4323479275; owner earnings 7936423725. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,6937000000],[2017,7126000000],[2018,7124000000],[2019,7230000000],[2020,7700000000],[2021,7681000000],[2022,7618000000],[2023,7829000000],[2024,7816000000],[2025,7496131841]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 203424140 CHF.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NSRGY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Sanctions restrict its business in Russia.

- Source: https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report (filed 2026-02-19); Group controls are fully consolidated from the date at which
 the Group obtains control. The Group controls a company when it is exposed to, or has
 rights to, variable returns from its involvement with the company and has the ability to
 affect those returns through its power over the company. Though the Group generally
 holds a majority of voting rights in the companies which are controlled, this applies
 irrespective of the percentage of interest in the share capital if control is obtained
 through agreements with other shareholders.

The war in Ukraine and the related sanctions imposed on Russia, Belarus and certain
regions in Ukraine still continue to limit the freedom of Nestlé Russia Region businesses
to operate. In accordance with the accounting policy described above, the Group has
re-assessed and confirmed that the changes in the legal and operating environment
of Russia and Ukraine have not impacted the ability to exercise control over the Group
entities in these countries.

As part of the Consolidated Financial Statements, the list of the principal subsidiaries
is provided in the section Companies of the Nestlé Group, joint arrangements and
associates after Note 21.



2.1 Change of scope of consolidation

Acquisitions
There were no significant acquisitions in 2025 nor in 2024.
   In 2024, among several other non-significant acquisitions, in March, the Group closed
the acquisition of Grupo CRM, a premium chocolate player in Brazil, and end of September
the acquisition of the global rights of the VOWST business from Seres Therapeutics, Inc.
Previously, Nestlé Health Science held the rights to the commercialization of the VOWST
business in the USA under a license with Seres Therapeutics, Inc., accounted for as
an operating right intangible asset, which has been subsumed following the acquisition
of the global rights to the full VOWST business.

Disposals
There were no significant disposals in 2025 nor in 2024.

Cash flows related to disposals in 2025 and 2024 are related to non-significant disposals.




90                                                                           Consolidated Financial Statements of the Nestlé Group 2025


2. Scope of consolidation, acquisitions of businesses and acquisitions of non-controlling interests




2.2 Acquisitions of businesses
The major classes of assets acquired and liabilities assumed at the acquisition date are:

In millions of CHF
                                                                                                                                    2025   2024
Inventories                                                                                                                           5      93
Other assets                                                                                                                         —       64
Property, plant and equipment      

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13163142711333753. Price 97.78; FX 1.2082; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $72.65 per share

- 2016-11: $67.30 per share

- 2016-12: $71.74 per share

- 2017-01: $73.22 per share

- 2017-02: $73.69 per share

- 2017-03: $76.90 per share

- 2017-04: $77.00 per share

- 2017-05: $85.16 per share

- 2017-06: $87.20 per share

- 2017-07: $84.29 per share

- 2017-08: $84.76 per share

- 2017-09: $84.01 per share

- 2017-10: $84.23 per share

- 2017-11: $85.41 per share

- 2017-12: $85.97 per share

- 2018-01: $86.40 per share

- 2018-02: $79.53 per share

- 2018-03: $79.05 per share

- 2018-04: $77.36 per share

- 2018-05: $75.67 per share

- 2018-06: $77.43 per share

- 2018-07: $81.51 per share

- 2018-08: $83.75 per share

- 2018-09: $83.20 per share

- 2018-10: $84.28 per share

- 2018-11: $85.22 per share

- 2018-12: $80.96 per share

- 2019-01: $87.24 per share

- 2019-02: $90.33 per share

- 2019-03: $95.32 per share

- 2019-04: $96.53 per share

- 2019-05: $99.16 per share

- 2019-06: $103.40 per share

- 2019-07: $106.08 per share

- 2019-08: $112.39 per share

- 2019-09: $108.40 per share

- 2019-10: $107.16 per share

- 2019-11: $103.94 per share

- 2019-12: $108.26 per share

- 2020-01: $110.26 per share

- 2020-02: $102.91 per share

- 2020-03: $102.99 per share

- 2020-04: $105.10 per share

- 2020-05: $108.03 per share

- 2020-06: $110.44 per share

- 2020-07: $117.85 per share

- 2020-08: $120.41 per share

- 2020-09: $119.26 per share

- 2020-10: $112.27 per share

- 2020-11: $111.08 per share

- 2020-12: $117.80 per share

- 2021-01: $112.30 per share

- 2021-02: $104.82 per share

- 2021-03: $111.51 per share

- 2021-04: $119.53 per share

- 2021-05: $123.67 per share

- 2021-06: $124.74 per share

- 2021-07: $126.66 per share

- 2021-08: $126.29 per share

- 2021-09: $120.21 per share

- 2021-10: $131.82 per share

- 2021-11: $128.50 per share

- 2021-12: $140.37 per share

- 2022-01: $129.14 per share

- 2022-02: $130.03 per share

- 2022-03: $130.10 per share

- 2022-04: $128.64 per share

- 2022-05: $121.96 per share

- 2022-06: $116.39 per share

- 2022-07: $122.86 per share

- 2022-08: $117.06 per share

- 2022-09: $107.61 per share

- 2022-10: $108.71 per share

- 2022-11: $118.99 per share

- 2022-12: $115.34 per share

- 2023-01: $122.22 per share

- 2023-02: $112.52 per share

- 2023-03: $121.69 per share

- 2023-04: $128.26 per share

- 2023-05: $118.73 per share

- 2023-06: $120.35 per share

- 2023-07: $122.90 per share

- 2023-08: $120.13 per share

- 2023-09: $113.17 per share

- 2023-10: $107.76 per share

- 2023-11: $113.92 per share

- 2023-12: $115.63 per share

- 2024-01: $113.90 per share

- 2024-02: $103.97 per share

- 2024-03: $106.20 per share

- 2024-04: $100.60 per share

- 2024-05: $106.30 per share

- 2024-06: $102.45 per share

- 2024-07: $100.99 per share

- 2024-08: $106.92 per share

- 2024-09: $100.67 per share

- 2024-10: $94.52 per share

- 2024-11: $86.78 per share

- 2024-12: $81.70 per share

- 2025-01: $84.98 per share

- 2025-02: $96.50 per share

- 2025-03: $101.17 per share

- 2025-04: $106.59 per share

- 2025-05: $106.51 per share

- 2025-06: $99.32 per share

- 2025-07: $86.98 per share

- 2025-08: $94.12 per share

- 2025-09: $91.77 per share

- 2025-10: $95.52 per share

- 2025-11: $99.58 per share

- 2025-12: $98.78 per share

- 2026-01: $95.06 per share

- 2026-02: $109.04 per share

- 2026-03: $99.10 per share

- 2026-04: $101.48 per share

- 2026-05: $101.44 per share

- 2026-06: $102.69 per share

- 2026-07: $99.95 per share

- 2026-08: $97.25 per share

- 2026-09: $90.78 per share

- 2026-10: $91.76 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $46.65 per share, central $52.67 per share, high $60.69 per share

- FY2021: low $60.54 per share, central $68.16 per share, high $78.29 per share

- FY2022: low $64.39 per share, central $72.97 per share, high $84.39 per share

- FY2023: low $64.37 per share, central $72.99 per share, high $84.47 per share

- FY2024: low $48.56 per share, central $54.87 per share, high $63.27 per share

- FY2025: low $42.75 per share, central $48.35 per share, high $55.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original annual-report filing](https://www.nestle.com/investors/annual-report); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.