# NTPC (NTPC.NSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NTPC.NSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2026.

Listing currency: INR. Reporting currency: INR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: INR 314.65 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low INR 175.82 per share, central INR 242.48 per share, high INR 276.44 per share. Buy at or below the central value INR 242.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.5% at the stated quote. About 9.5% a year at today's price (required return 11.4%). required return 11.4% a year (IN 10-year bond 7.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.20×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- FY2026: 0.19×

### moat: fail

- The return floor includes all equity, debt and leases without deducting cash or goodwill. Only a floor above the hurdle establishes a pass.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.4%

- Conservative return floor, median: 5.9%

- Conservative return floor, second lowest: 4.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 21.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 6.0%

- FY2023: 6.4%

- FY2024: 6.8%

- FY2025: 6.4%

- FY2026: 7.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.57×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: INR 600B

- Net income, five-year total: INR 1.05T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 12.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 11.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 0.47×

- FY2025: 0.62×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 10.83 to 24.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: INR 2.22T

- Cumulative retained earnings: INR 384B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 10.5%

- Per-share value change: INR 13.33

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: INR 10.83

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: INR 24.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 4.3%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: INR 1.66T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: INR 10.83

- FY2018: INR 10.66

- FY2019: INR 12.77

- FY2020: INR 11.72

- FY2021: INR 14.87

- FY2022: INR 17.20

- FY2023: INR 17.44

- FY2024: INR 21.46

- FY2025: INR 24.16

- FY2026: INR 27.90

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.88×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.8%

- FY2018: -3.2%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -3.4%

- FY2021: -4.5%

- FY2022: -6.0%

- FY2023: -6.8%

- FY2024: -4.0%

- FY2025: -5.2%

- FY2026: -4.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 29% since Sep 2024 · sales -0.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.007Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -0.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: INR 820B 

- FY2018: INR 881B 

- FY2019: INR 1.00T 

- FY2020: INR 1.09T 

- FY2021: INR 1.12T 

- FY2022: INR 1.33T 

- FY2023: INR 1.76T 

- FY2024: INR 1.79T 

- FY2025: INR 1.88T 

- FY2026: INR 1.87T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 41.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2023: 35.6% 

- FY2024: 36.9% 

- FY2025: 38.0% 

- FY2026: 41.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in power generation; annual sales are INR 1.9 trillion.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2026: revenue 1873850000000; grossProfit 771533400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.9% to 41.2% during 2024–26; it earns 6.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 36.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 41.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2022,0.05989637700037761],[2023,0.06439034459982435],[2024,0.06818225528402684],[2025,0.06430847720590852],[2026,0.07620178421426914]]; median 0.06439034459982435. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2017: growth capex 106318119088.92285; upkeep 137681880911.07715; owner earnings 29618119088.92285. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.589631021798603.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2018: growth capex 77702299646.1511; upkeep 109957700353.8489; owner earnings 70082299646.1511. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1087293088051298.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2019: growth capex 129380000000; upkeep 86690000000; owner earnings 137370000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9418359175948169.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2020: growth capex 78740000000; upkeep 103560000000; owner earnings 116000000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6787931034482758.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2021: growth capex 32136028222.490967; upkeep 200983971777.50903; owner earnings 69866028222.49097. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4599664391992141.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2022: growth capex 106560000000; upkeep 137880000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 166209000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6411205169395159.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2023: growth capex 100270000000; upkeep 147920000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 166829000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6010345923070929.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2024: growth capex 37311437922.359344; upkeep 270848562077.64066; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 98002537922.35934. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.38071909884536487.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2025: growth capex 149487747006.6559; upkeep 263862252993.3441; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 144367747006.6559. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.035464985124163.

- Source: https://www.screener.in/company/NTPC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 440500000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 24222800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,35950000000],[2018,40400000000],[2019,54610000000],[2020,31330000000],[2021,57780000000],[2022,71070000000],[2023,72480000000],[2024,74190000000],[2025,82070000000],[2026,87590000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.129Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1298621730646078. Price 314.65; FX 1; discount 0.11391000000000001; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -4.616305897602074 → FY2026 2.4981189516874283. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (INR per share)

- 2016-11: INR 135.96 per share

- 2016-12: INR 137.29 per share

- 2017-01: INR 143.63 per share

- 2017-02: INR 135.79 per share

- 2017-03: INR 138.33 per share

- 2017-04: INR 137.08 per share

- 2017-05: INR 133.50 per share

- 2017-06: INR 132.46 per share

- 2017-07: INR 136.83 per share

- 2017-08: INR 140.63 per share

- 2017-09: INR 139.54 per share

- 2017-10: INR 151.04 per share

- 2017-11: INR 150.96 per share

- 2017-12: INR 147.50 per share

- 2018-01: INR 141.88 per share

- 2018-02: INR 136.04 per share

- 2018-03: INR 141.42 per share

- 2018-04: INR 143.46 per share

- 2018-05: INR 139.63 per share

- 2018-06: INR 133.04 per share

- 2018-07: INR 129.04 per share

- 2018-08: INR 142.92 per share

- 2018-09: INR 139.04 per share

- 2018-10: INR 133.04 per share

- 2018-11: INR 116.92 per share

- 2018-12: INR 124.21 per share

- 2019-01: INR 116.42 per share

- 2019-02: INR 117.71 per share

- 2019-03: INR 134.70 per share

- 2019-04: INR 134.05 per share

- 2019-05: INR 133.25 per share

- 2019-06: INR 141.35 per share

- 2019-07: INR 126.55 per share

- 2019-08: INR 121.65 per share

- 2019-09: INR 117.50 per share

- 2019-10: INR 122.40 per share

- 2019-11: INR 116.35 per share

- 2019-12: INR 119.05 per share

- 2020-01: INR 112.85 per share

- 2020-02: INR 106.55 per share

- 2020-03: INR 84.20 per share

- 2020-04: INR 95.05 per share

- 2020-05: INR 97.85 per share

- 2020-06: INR 95.80 per share

- 2020-07: INR 87.00 per share

- 2020-08: INR 96.40 per share

- 2020-09: INR 85.10 per share

- 2020-10: INR 87.60 per share

- 2020-11: INR 94.70 per share

- 2020-12: INR 99.35 per share

- 2021-01: INR 88.95 per share

- 2021-02: INR 107.30 per share

- 2021-03: INR 106.55 per share

- 2021-04: INR 102.45 per share

- 2021-05: INR 110.50 per share

- 2021-06: INR 116.40 per share

- 2021-07: INR 118.20 per share

- 2021-08: INR 115.95 per share

- 2021-09: INR 141.85 per share

- 2021-10: INR 132.65 per share

- 2021-11: INR 127.25 per share

- 2021-12: INR 124.40 per share

- 2022-01: INR 142.05 per share

- 2022-02: INR 133.50 per share

- 2022-03: INR 135.00 per share

- 2022-04: INR 156.20 per share

- 2022-05: INR 156.00 per share

- 2022-06: INR 142.90 per share

- 2022-07: INR 152.95 per share

- 2022-08: INR 164.00 per share

- 2022-09: INR 159.65 per share

- 2022-10: INR 173.10 per share

- 2022-11: INR 172.20 per share

- 2022-12: INR 166.45 per share

- 2023-01: INR 171.15 per share

- 2023-02: INR 170.50 per share

- 2023-03: INR 175.10 per share

- 2023-04: INR 172.00 per share

- 2023-05: INR 173.85 per share

- 2023-06: INR 189.15 per share

- 2023-07: INR 218.35 per share

- 2023-08: INR 220.30 per share

- 2023-09: INR 245.55 per share

- 2023-10: INR 235.80 per share

- 2023-11: INR 261.30 per share

- 2023-12: INR 311.15 per share

- 2024-01: INR 317.50 per share

- 2024-02: INR 335.60 per share

- 2024-03: INR 335.80 per share

- 2024-04: INR 363.20 per share

- 2024-05: INR 359.00 per share

- 2024-06: INR 378.35 per share

- 2024-07: INR 416.00 per share

- 2024-08: INR 416.20 per share

- 2024-09: INR 443.20 per share

- 2024-10: INR 408.15 per share

- 2024-11: INR 363.65 per share

- 2024-12: INR 333.35 per share

- 2025-01: INR 324.00 per share

- 2025-02: INR 311.45 per share

- 2025-03: INR 357.60 per share

- 2025-04: INR 354.55 per share

- 2025-05: INR 333.90 per share

- 2025-06: INR 334.90 per share

- 2025-07: INR 334.25 per share

- 2025-08: INR 327.55 per share

- 2025-09: INR 340.45 per share

- 2025-10: INR 336.95 per share

- 2025-11: INR 326.45 per share

- 2025-12: INR 329.55 per share

- 2026-01: INR 356.00 per share

- 2026-02: INR 381.90 per share

- 2026-03: INR 370.65 per share

- 2026-04: INR 399.15 per share

- 2026-05: INR 386.90 per share

- 2026-06: INR 356.65 per share

- 2026-07: INR 347.25 per share

- 2026-08: INR 327.40 per share

- 2026-09: INR 322.75 per share

- 2026-10: INR 314.65 per share

## Annual estimated value (INR per share)

- FY2019: low INR 32.38 per share, central INR 35.99 per share, high INR 40.58 per share

- FY2020: low INR 83.44 per share, central INR 92.89 per share, high INR 104.87 per share

- FY2021: low INR 86.63 per share, central INR 96.31 per share, high INR 108.58 per share

- FY2022: low INR 137.65 per share, central INR 153.22 per share, high INR 172.97 per share

- FY2023: low INR 181.78 per share, central INR 202.45 per share, high INR 228.67 per share

- FY2024: low INR 166.59 per share, central INR 185.30 per share, high INR 209.03 per share

- FY2025: low INR 180.09 per share, central INR 247.03 per share, high INR 281.14 per share

- FY2026: low INR 175.82 per share, central INR 242.48 per share, high INR 276.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:09.744Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.