# Nutrien (NTR.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NTR.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:13.790Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 98.77 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 80.14 per share, central CAD 91.05 per share, high CAD 105.56 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 91.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:13.790Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.4% at the stated quote. About 9.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.57×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.14×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 29.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.1%

- FY2017: 1.0%

- FY2018: 1.6%

- FY2019: 6.6%

- FY2020: 8.0%

- FY2021: 16.7%

- FY2022: 33.1%

- FY2023: 10.3%

- FY2024: 7.9%

- FY2025: 11.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $14B

- Net income, five-year total: $15B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 56.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.39×

- FY2024: 0.87×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.6% vs 10.3%

- Per-share earnings: 1.00 to 2.54 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Market cap gain: $1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.4%

- Per-share value change: $1.54

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.00

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.54

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.69

- Average buyback yield: 4.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $15B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $21B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.00

- FY2017: $0.97

- FY2018: $5.83

- FY2019: $1.73

- FY2020: $0.81

- FY2021: $5.53

- FY2022: $14.79

- FY2023: $2.54

- FY2024: $1.36

- FY2025: $4.77

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.77×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.55×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.3%

- FY2017: -5.3%

- FY2018: 3.3%

- FY2019: -5.7%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: -1.5%

- FY2022: -0.8%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -5.5%

- FY2025: -3.4%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 24% since Mar 2022 · "Nutrien misses profit estimates as lower volumes blunt higher fertilizer prices" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +3.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.698Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-12-24: Nutrien Earnings Soared 149% Last Quarter; Analysts See Even Stronger Growth Ahead ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b4535104-f271-33a1-ac73-ee351e20c4ae/nutrien-earnings-soared-149%25.html))

- 2026-02-25: Nutrien’s Record Sales And Payout Moves Weighed Against Mixed Earnings Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nutrien-record-sales-payout-moves-191201686.html))

- 2026-03-13: NTR- Benefiting from Higher Fertilizer Prices Tied to the Iran War ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ntr-benefiting-higher-fertilizer-prices-050100849.html))

- 2026-08-06: Nutrien misses profit estimates as lower volumes blunt higher fertilizer prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nutrien-misses-profit-estimates-lower-093426074.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526081326/d56746d40f.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $4.5B 

- FY2018: $20B 

- FY2019: $20B 

- FY2020: $21B 

- FY2021: $28B 

- FY2022: $38B 

- FY2023: $29B 

- FY2024: $26B 

- FY2025: $27B 

- FY2026: $28B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 31%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526081326/d56746d40f.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 19.1% 

- FY2017: 14.8% 

- FY2018: 27.5% 

- FY2019: 27.2% 

- FY2020: 25.1% 

- FY2021: 34.0% 

- FY2022: 40.7% 

- FY2023: 29.2% 

- FY2024: 29.0% 

- FY2025: 31.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in agricultural inputs; annual sales are USD 26.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526081326/d56746d40f.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 26885000000; grossProfit 8347000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NTR.TO: Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and financing services and solutions; and produces proprietary products, including proprietary crop nutrient, crop protection, and seed products. The Potash segment includes mining and processing of potash. The Nitrogen segment owns and operates ammonia production facilities that offers ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate (UAN), urea solutions, nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate, as well as environmentally smart nitrogen and ammonium sulfate. The Phosphate segment manufactures and sells solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers, phosphate feed, and purified phosphoric acid, which is used in feed and industrial products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29% to 31% during 2023–25; it earns 8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 29.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526081326/d56746d40f.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.041346120040129476],[2017,0.009753662570888468],[2018,0.01643269858815254],[2019,0.06624878126321673],[2020,0.08040651621581228],[2021,0.1674339898821339],[2022,0.33130642524334036],[2023,0.10277303518937825],[2024,0.07887778600213834],[2025,0.11227907106171148]]; median 0.07964215110897531. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 560.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 895000000; owner earnings 136000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 652000000; owner earnings 367000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1405000000; owner earnings 3760000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 92000000; upkeep 1799000000; owner earnings 777400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11834319526627218.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1549000000; owner earnings 671000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1783000000; owner earnings 3077000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 426000000; upkeep 2012000000; owner earnings 7419200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.057418589605348284.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2671000000; owner earnings 490800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2154000000; owner earnings 588000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526081326/d56746d40f.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2040098593; owner earnings 2378986451. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,809000000],[2017,330000000],[2018,952000000],[2019,1022000000],[2020,1030000000],[2021,1045000000],[2022,1031000000],[2023,1032000000],[2024,1060000000],[2025,1079573370]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526081326/d56746d40f.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 560645548 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NTR.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.031 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.014672468860561172. Price 98.77; FX 1.4190435646374344; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.0036836723968237 → FY2025 4.92305270531461. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2018-01: CAD 64.35 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 63.05 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 60.89 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 58.45 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 65.61 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 71.52 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 70.65 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 73.34 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 74.58 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 69.69 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 68.44 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 64.12 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 68.07 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 71.63 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 70.48 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 72.66 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 65.92 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 70.05 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 72.36 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 67.05 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 66.00 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 63.01 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 62.70 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 62.17 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 56.49 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 54.25 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 48.11 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 49.71 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 47.00 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 43.62 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 43.62 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 48.31 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 52.21 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 54.16 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 64.10 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 61.24 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 62.98 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 68.69 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 67.70 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 67.85 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 74.36 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 75.11 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 74.18 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 76.70 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 82.21 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 86.50 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 84.68 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 95.08 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 88.78 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 109.01 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 129.22 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 126.24 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 123.61 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 102.51 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 109.62 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 120.57 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 115.20 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 115.11 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 108.11 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 98.85 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 110.14 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 106.32 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 99.81 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 93.99 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 71.52 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 78.21 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 90.87 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 85.59 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 83.88 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 74.48 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 72.58 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 74.65 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 67.04 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 70.84 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 73.59 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 72.59 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 79.87 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 69.65 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 70.81 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 65.27 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 64.99 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 66.39 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 65.40 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 64.32 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 75.01 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 75.82 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 71.42 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 78.70 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 81.08 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 79.35 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 82.21 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 79.15 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 81.73 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 76.39 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 81.30 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 84.72 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 93.75 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 102.59 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 105.01 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 103.25 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 94.41 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 89.35 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 96.76 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 104.54 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 99.94 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 99.16 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2016: low CAD 21.98 per share, central CAD 25.01 per share, high CAD 29.04 per share

- FY2017: low CAD 22.52 per share, central CAD 25.61 per share, high CAD 29.72 per share

- FY2018: low CAD 57.55 per share, central CAD 64.87 per share, high CAD 74.61 per share

- FY2019: low CAD 47.06 per share, central CAD 56.80 per share, high CAD 66.07 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 24.69 per share, central CAD 27.74 per share, high CAD 31.80 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 60.90 per share, central CAD 69.30 per share, high CAD 80.48 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 155.44 per share, central CAD 219.53 per share, high CAD 257.68 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 36.39 per share, central CAD 41.26 per share, high CAD 47.75 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 27.08 per share, central CAD 30.68 per share, high CAD 35.47 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 76.83 per share, central CAD 87.36 per share, high CAD 101.38 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:59.267Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526081326/d56746d40f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.