# Natera (NTRA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NTRA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:43.276Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $404.79 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 10

- Operating margin variation: 0.53×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.64×

- FY2018: -0.44×

- FY2019: -0.38×

- FY2020: -0.55×

- FY2021: -0.75×

- FY2022: -0.66×

- FY2023: -0.41×

- FY2024: -0.13×

- FY2025: -0.13×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.11×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -220.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -763.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -15.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 44.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 60.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -317.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -763.5%

- FY2017: -356.2%

- FY2018: -5019.7%

- FY2019: -21.1%

- FY2020: -568.5%

- FY2021: -271.4%

- FY2022: -168.6%

- FY2023: -107.4%

- FY2024: -42.4%

- FY2025: -34.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$1.9B

- Net income, five-year total: -$1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -37.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.5%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$472M

- FY2022: -$548M

- FY2023: -$435M

- FY2024: -$190M

- FY2025: -$208M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -763.5% vs -42.4%

- Per-share earnings: -2.54 to -1.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 18.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 11.0%

- Market cap gain: $31B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$2.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 18.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 11.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $1.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.54

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.53

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $518M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$2.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -763.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -42.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.86

- FY2017: -$2.54

- FY2018: -$2.22

- FY2019: -$1.79

- FY2020: -$2.84

- FY2021: -$5.21

- FY2022: -$5.57

- FY2023: -$3.78

- FY2024: -$1.53

- FY2025: -$1.52

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -16.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.69×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 164.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.3%

- FY2017: -17.9%

- FY2018: -21.5%

- FY2019: -10.5%

- FY2020: -5.1%

- FY2021: -11.0%

- FY2022: -8.3%

- FY2023: -13.0%

- FY2024: -19.6%

- FY2025: -16.9%

## Holders

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 926% since Oct 2023 · "Natera Expects Q4 Revenue To Climb 39% On Record Signatera Testing Growth" (nasdaq.com, Jan 2026) · sales +17.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:17.101Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-05-09: Natera Inc (NTRA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natera-inc-ntra-q1-2025-073957128.html))

- 2025-06-04: Natera Announces Medicare Coverage for Signatera™ Genome ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natera-announces-medicare-coverage-signatera-110000555.html))

- 2025-08-19: Natera (NTRA) Reports Positive Phase III Trial Results in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natera-ntra-reports-positive-phase-174013950.html))

- 2025-11-10: Natera (NTRA): Valuation Insights Following Strong Q3 Results and Upbeat Guidance Boost ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natera-ntra-valuation-insights-following-220927526.html))

- 2026-01-12: Natera Expects Q4 Revenue To Climb 39% On Record Signatera Testing Growth ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/natera-expects-q4-revenue-climb-39-record-signatera-testing-growth))

- 2026-04-09: Judge Awards 30% Ongoing Royalty to Natera for its MRD-Related Patents ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/judge-awards-30-ongoing-royalty-100000788.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +17.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1604821/000110465926020881/ntra-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $211M 

- FY2018: $258M 

- FY2019: $302M 

- FY2020: $391M 

- FY2021: $625M 

- FY2022: $820M 

- FY2023: $1.1B 

- FY2024: $1.7B 

- FY2025: $2.3B 

- FY2026: $2.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 64.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1604821/000110465926020881/ntra-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 37.5% 

- FY2017: 33.8% 

- FY2018: 35.6% 

- FY2019: 42.0% 

- FY2020: 47.9% 

- FY2021: 49.1% 

- FY2022: 44.4% 

- FY2023: 45.5% 

- FY2024: 60.3% 

- FY2025: 64.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in diagnostics & research; annual sales are USD 2.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1604821/000110465926020881/ntra-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 2306113000; grossProfit 1495486000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NTRA.US: Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, engages in the development and commercialization of molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Signatera, a personalized ctDNA blood test for MRD assessment, early recurrence monitoring, and evaluation of treatment response in patients previously diagnosed with cancer; Latitude, a blood-based MRD test for colorectal cancer; Altera, a tissue based comprehensive genomic profiling test; and Empower, a hereditary cancer screening test. The company also provides Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test; Horizon, a carrier screening test; Fetal Focus, a single-gene NIPT, or sgNIPT, that screens for 21 single-gene inherited conditions; and Vistara, a single-gene NIPT, which screens for 25 single-gene conditions. In addition, it offers Anora, which tests and analyzes miscarriage tissue from women who have experienced one or more pregnancy losses; Empower, a hereditary cancer screening test; Prospera, a test to assess active rejection in patients who have undergone solid organ transplantation; Renasight, a kidney gene panel test; and Constellation software, a cloud-based distribution model. Further, the company provides NateraCore, a platform to support the patient and provider experience; phlebotomy services; and EMR integration services. The company serves independent laboratories, national and regional reference laboratories, medical centers and physician practices for its screening tests, research laboratories, and pharmaceutical companies through its direct sales force and laboratory distribution partners, as well as Constellation licensees under its cloud-based distribution model. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays for clinical and commercial use. The company has a collaboration with Diakonos Oncology Corp. to assess molecular response in patients with refractory melanoma. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, LLC and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in Januar

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 45.5% to 64.8% during 2023–25.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 45.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 60.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1604821/000110465926020881/ntra-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 64.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-7.634767628205128],[2017,-3.5617899552595285],[2018,-50.19740576496674],[2019,-0.21141825805590458],[2020,-5.6848720678755615],[2021,-2.714430630577736],[2022,-1.685609158776043],[2023,-1.073674632929589],[2024,-0.42391592760137303],[2025,-0.34503465430254515]]; median -2.200019894676889. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 3 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,2589000],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,7114000],[2021,0],[2022,30000000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NTRA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.735 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 24 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Closing price 404.79 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 16.86729178399807; price multiple 23.99851767454587. FY2025 cash earnings/share -1.522516658011571. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $8.48 per share

- 2016-11: $12.00 per share

- 2016-12: $11.71 per share

- 2017-01: $8.96 per share

- 2017-02: $9.56 per share

- 2017-03: $8.87 per share

- 2017-04: $9.05 per share

- 2017-05: $10.24 per share

- 2017-06: $10.86 per share

- 2017-07: $8.07 per share

- 2017-08: $12.35 per share

- 2017-09: $12.89 per share

- 2017-10: $10.99 per share

- 2017-11: $9.73 per share

- 2017-12: $8.99 per share

- 2018-01: $10.41 per share

- 2018-02: $9.00 per share

- 2018-03: $9.27 per share

- 2018-04: $11.13 per share

- 2018-05: $11.66 per share

- 2018-06: $18.82 per share

- 2018-07: $22.96 per share

- 2018-08: $27.64 per share

- 2018-09: $23.94 per share

- 2018-10: $21.96 per share

- 2018-11: $17.32 per share

- 2018-12: $13.96 per share

- 2019-01: $13.59 per share

- 2019-02: $15.84 per share

- 2019-03: $20.62 per share

- 2019-04: $19.11 per share

- 2019-05: $22.90 per share

- 2019-06: $27.58 per share

- 2019-07: $27.58 per share

- 2019-08: $32.95 per share

- 2019-09: $32.80 per share

- 2019-10: $38.52 per share

- 2019-11: $36.49 per share

- 2019-12: $33.69 per share

- 2020-01: $35.01 per share

- 2020-02: $37.91 per share

- 2020-03: $29.86 per share

- 2020-04: $37.04 per share

- 2020-05: $43.85 per share

- 2020-06: $49.86 per share

- 2020-07: $48.02 per share

- 2020-08: $63.71 per share

- 2020-09: $72.24 per share

- 2020-10: $67.26 per share

- 2020-11: $88.27 per share

- 2020-12: $99.52 per share

- 2021-01: $106.64 per share

- 2021-02: $116.09 per share

- 2021-03: $101.54 per share

- 2021-04: $110.02 per share

- 2021-05: $94.14 per share

- 2021-06: $113.53 per share

- 2021-07: $114.52 per share

- 2021-08: $118.43 per share

- 2021-09: $111.44 per share

- 2021-10: $114.57 per share

- 2021-11: $91.46 per share

- 2021-12: $93.39 per share

- 2022-01: $70.65 per share

- 2022-02: $65.75 per share

- 2022-03: $40.68 per share

- 2022-04: $35.12 per share

- 2022-05: $36.69 per share

- 2022-06: $35.44 per share

- 2022-07: $47.00 per share

- 2022-08: $49.26 per share

- 2022-09: $43.82 per share

- 2022-10: $46.96 per share

- 2022-11: $41.12 per share

- 2022-12: $40.17 per share

- 2023-01: $42.93 per share

- 2023-02: $48.55 per share

- 2023-03: $55.52 per share

- 2023-04: $50.72 per share

- 2023-05: $47.11 per share

- 2023-06: $48.66 per share

- 2023-07: $45.22 per share

- 2023-08: $58.73 per share

- 2023-09: $44.25 per share

- 2023-10: $39.47 per share

- 2023-11: $55.95 per share

- 2023-12: $62.64 per share

- 2024-01: $65.94 per share

- 2024-02: $86.49 per share

- 2024-03: $91.46 per share

- 2024-04: $92.88 per share

- 2024-05: $106.53 per share

- 2024-06: $108.29 per share

- 2024-07: $102.39 per share

- 2024-08: $118.26 per share

- 2024-09: $126.95 per share

- 2024-10: $120.96 per share

- 2024-11: $167.78 per share

- 2024-12: $158.30 per share

- 2025-01: $176.92 per share

- 2025-02: $155.59 per share

- 2025-03: $141.41 per share

- 2025-04: $150.93 per share

- 2025-05: $157.73 per share

- 2025-06: $168.94 per share

- 2025-07: $133.66 per share

- 2025-08: $168.25 per share

- 2025-09: $160.97 per share

- 2025-10: $198.93 per share

- 2025-11: $238.81 per share

- 2025-12: $229.09 per share

- 2026-01: $231.14 per share

- 2026-02: $208.04 per share

- 2026-03: $199.99 per share

- 2026-04: $206.16 per share

- 2026-05: $223.37 per share

- 2026-06: $271.45 per share

- 2026-07: $267.76 per share

- 2026-08: $321.96 per share

- 2026-09: $413.31 per share

- 2026-10: $395.66 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1604821/000110465926020881/ntra-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.