# Northern Trust (NTRS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NTRS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:43.738Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $165.44 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $517.51 per share, central $550.09 per share, high $593.46 per share. Buy at or below the central value $550.09 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:43.738Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.30×

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.27×

- FY2021: 0.31×

- FY2022: 0.26×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.29×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 100.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 100.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.9%

- FY2017: 5.2%

- FY2018: 5.8%

- FY2019: 6.2%

- FY2020: 0.7%

- FY2021: 0.9%

- FY2022: 5.1%

- FY2023: 3.8%

- FY2024: 7.1%

- FY2025: 5.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.19×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $9.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -118.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1056.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1651.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.27×

- FY2022: 1.32×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.41×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.8% vs 5.9%

- Per-share earnings: 4.51 to 9.03 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: $5.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $7.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.1%

- Per-share value change: $4.53

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.51

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.03

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 3.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $14B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.51

- FY2017: $5.22

- FY2018: $6.93

- FY2019: $6.92

- FY2020: $5.79

- FY2021: $7.40

- FY2022: $6.40

- FY2023: $5.33

- FY2024: $10.06

- FY2025: $9.03

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.1%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.19×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.4%

- FY2017: -0.4%

- FY2018: -0.2%

- FY2019: -0.8%

- FY2020: -0.4%

- FY2021: 0.1%

- FY2022: -0.7%

- FY2023: -1.0%

- FY2024: 1.6%

- FY2025: -2.1%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 151% since Oct 2023 · "Northern Trust (NTRS) Secures NMERB Asset Servicing Deal for US$18 Billion Fund" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales -2.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:17.165Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-05-27: Fixed Income Activity Drives Northern Trust’s Outsourced Trading Business Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fixed-income-activity-drives-northern-130000005.html))

- 2025-06-23: Northern Trust Stock Surges on Reported Merger Talks With BNY ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/northern-trust-stock-surges-reported-125210975.html))

- 2025-07-23: Northern Trust beats profit estimates on higher fees, market rally ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/northern-trust-beats-profit-estimates-114558775.html))

- 2026-01-22: Northern Trust Q4 earnings, revenue beats helped by NII, servicing fee growth ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4541541-northern-trust-q4-earnings-revenue-beats-helped-by-nii-servicing-fee-growth?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-09-14: Northern Trust CFO expects 'seasonal downturn' in Q3, shares down ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4642613-northern-trust-cfo-expects-seasonal-downturn-in-q3-shares-down?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000007312426000016/ntrs-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: $5.0B 

- FY2017: $5.4B 

- FY2018: $6.0B 

- FY2019: $6.1B 

- FY2020: $6.1B 

- FY2021: $6.5B 

- FY2022: $6.8B 

- FY2023: $6.8B 

- FY2024: $8.3B 

- FY2025: $8.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 100%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000007312426000016/ntrs-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 98.0% 

- FY2020: 98.0% 

- FY2022: 99.8% 

- FY2023: 99.6% 

- FY2025: 100.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 8.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000007312426000016/ntrs-20251231.htm#000007312426000016 (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 8086400000; grossProfit 8085800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NTRS.US: Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytics services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage, transition management, banking, and cash management services. It serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic services; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage; and private and business banking services. This segment also provides global custody, fiduciary services, family office consulting, and technology solutions to high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately held businesses. In addition, it offers asset management and related services comprising active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; multi-asset and alternative asset classes that include private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange-traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. Further, the company provides overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

It earns 5.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 99.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000007312426000016/ntrs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.058541038260041284],[2017,0.05159075066908772],[2018,0.058046469995897514],[2019,0.06172951864047788],[2020,0.007132838424959803],[2021,0.008555218334398144],[2022,0.051175386784032974],[2023,0.038007139424727124],[2024,0.07056865599560835],[2025,0.05890546363982516]]; median 0.05481861033249262. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 27187762.14409697; upkeep 446212237.855903; owner earnings 959587762.144097. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.028332752059435192.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 40546146.58611196; upkeep 432253853.41388804; owner earnings 1188446146.586112. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.034116940597252454.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 45100000; upkeep 460900000; owner earnings 1556400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.028977126702647134.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 158000000; owner earnings 1793100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 135800000; owner earnings 1573800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 95500000; owner earnings 1965400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 128600000; owner earnings 1761000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 953850.003034234; upkeep 674846149.9969658; owner earnings 1067053850.0030342. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0008939099025147809.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 28700000; upkeep 716800000; owner earnings 2031100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.014130274235635861.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000007312426000016/ntrs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 74000000; owner earnings 2442000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,356400000],[2017,406600000],[2018,451800000],[2019,576100000],[2020,630500000],[2021,625100000],[2022,796700000],[2023,663300000],[2024,644100000],[2025,633400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000007312426000016/ntrs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 1273500000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NTRS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.859 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We are dependent on fee-based business for a majority of our revenues" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000007312426000016/ntrs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); We are dependent on fee-based business for a majority of our revenues

### What the price says

The price is 3.9 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Closing price 165.44 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 42.06265886990675; price multiple 3.933179795211714. FY2025 cash earnings/share 12.702440265175145. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $72.42 per share

- 2016-11: $82.15 per share

- 2016-12: $89.05 per share

- 2017-01: $82.96 per share

- 2017-02: $87.35 per share

- 2017-03: $86.58 per share

- 2017-04: $90.00 per share

- 2017-05: $87.44 per share

- 2017-06: $97.21 per share

- 2017-07: $87.51 per share

- 2017-08: $88.50 per share

- 2017-09: $91.93 per share

- 2017-10: $93.52 per share

- 2017-11: $97.78 per share

- 2017-12: $99.89 per share

- 2018-01: $105.39 per share

- 2018-02: $105.87 per share

- 2018-03: $103.13 per share

- 2018-04: $106.75 per share

- 2018-05: $102.52 per share

- 2018-06: $102.89 per share

- 2018-07: $109.22 per share

- 2018-08: $107.46 per share

- 2018-09: $102.13 per share

- 2018-10: $94.07 per share

- 2018-11: $99.23 per share

- 2018-12: $83.59 per share

- 2019-01: $88.46 per share

- 2019-02: $93.20 per share

- 2019-03: $90.41 per share

- 2019-04: $98.55 per share

- 2019-05: $85.52 per share

- 2019-06: $90.00 per share

- 2019-07: $98.00 per share

- 2019-08: $87.93 per share

- 2019-09: $93.32 per share

- 2019-10: $99.68 per share

- 2019-11: $107.24 per share

- 2019-12: $106.24 per share

- 2020-01: $97.81 per share

- 2020-02: $87.76 per share

- 2020-03: $75.46 per share

- 2020-04: $79.16 per share

- 2020-05: $79.01 per share

- 2020-06: $79.34 per share

- 2020-07: $78.35 per share

- 2020-08: $81.89 per share

- 2020-09: $77.97 per share

- 2020-10: $78.27 per share

- 2020-11: $93.12 per share

- 2020-12: $93.14 per share

- 2021-01: $89.19 per share

- 2021-02: $95.13 per share

- 2021-03: $105.11 per share

- 2021-04: $113.80 per share

- 2021-05: $121.19 per share

- 2021-06: $115.62 per share

- 2021-07: $112.85 per share

- 2021-08: $118.52 per share

- 2021-09: $107.81 per share

- 2021-10: $123.04 per share

- 2021-11: $115.70 per share

- 2021-12: $119.61 per share

- 2022-01: $116.64 per share

- 2022-02: $113.90 per share

- 2022-03: $116.45 per share

- 2022-04: $103.05 per share

- 2022-05: $111.75 per share

- 2022-06: $96.48 per share

- 2022-07: $99.78 per share

- 2022-08: $95.09 per share

- 2022-09: $85.56 per share

- 2022-10: $84.35 per share

- 2022-11: $93.11 per share

- 2022-12: $88.49 per share

- 2023-01: $96.97 per share

- 2023-02: $95.27 per share

- 2023-03: $88.13 per share

- 2023-04: $78.16 per share

- 2023-05: $71.92 per share

- 2023-06: $74.14 per share

- 2023-07: $80.12 per share

- 2023-08: $76.07 per share

- 2023-09: $69.48 per share

- 2023-10: $65.91 per share

- 2023-11: $79.25 per share

- 2023-12: $84.38 per share

- 2024-01: $79.64 per share

- 2024-02: $82.13 per share

- 2024-03: $88.92 per share

- 2024-04: $82.39 per share

- 2024-05: $84.24 per share

- 2024-06: $83.98 per share

- 2024-07: $88.65 per share

- 2024-08: $91.21 per share

- 2024-09: $90.03 per share

- 2024-10: $100.52 per share

- 2024-11: $111.16 per share

- 2024-12: $102.50 per share

- 2025-01: $112.29 per share

- 2025-02: $110.22 per share

- 2025-03: $98.65 per share

- 2025-04: $93.98 per share

- 2025-05: $106.74 per share

- 2025-06: $126.79 per share

- 2025-07: $130.00 per share

- 2025-08: $131.28 per share

- 2025-09: $134.60 per share

- 2025-10: $128.67 per share

- 2025-11: $131.34 per share

- 2025-12: $136.59 per share

- 2026-01: $149.43 per share

- 2026-02: $143.09 per share

- 2026-03: $139.57 per share

- 2026-04: $166.34 per share

- 2026-05: $165.45 per share

- 2026-06: $173.84 per share

- 2026-07: $182.19 per share

- 2026-08: $185.56 per share

- 2026-09: $169.36 per share

- 2026-10: $167.48 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $65.38 per share, central $71.96 per share, high $79.93 per share

- FY2017: low $74.54 per share, central $89.85 per share, high $101.74 per share

- FY2018: low $83.57 per share, central $99.46 per share, high $112.67 per share

- FY2019: low $88.21 per share, central $97.60 per share, high $110.09 per share

- FY2020: low $102.72 per share, central $114.07 per share, high $129.18 per share

- FY2021: low $102.34 per share, central $114.52 per share, high $130.73 per share

- FY2022: low $448.54 per share, central $461.28 per share, high $478.24 per share

- FY2023: low $405.08 per share, central $417.88 per share, high $434.94 per share

- FY2024: low $395.06 per share, central $411.03 per share, high $432.28 per share

- FY2025: low $450.67 per share, central $467.19 per share, high $489.16 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:27.592Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000007312426000016/ntrs-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.