# Nvidia (NVDA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NVDA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:44.711Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $217.23 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $87.92 per share, central $123.94 per share, high $144.92 per share. Buy at or below the central value $123.94 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:44.711Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- FY2023 operating-margin dip fully recovered the next year and stayed recovered; holding that year at the preceding margin meets the existing variation limit. Raw variation still determines the price discount.

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.40×

- One fully recovered margin dip: Yes

- Variation with recovered dip held at prior margin: 0.33

- Recovered dip fiscal year: FY2023

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.26×

- FY2021: 0.27×

- FY2022: 0.37×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.54×

- FY2025: 0.62×

- FY2026: 0.60×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.65×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 51.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -8.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 62.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 71.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 91.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 82.7%

- FY2021: 51.0%

- FY2022: 77.3%

- FY2023: 25.9%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

- FY2026: >100%

- LTM to Jul 2026: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $237B

- Net income, five-year total: $237B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 201.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 145.6% vs 129.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.07 to 2.94 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: $4.58T

- Cumulative retained earnings: $141B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 60.6%

- Per-share value change: $2.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.94

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.27

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $25B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $253B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.07

- FY2018: $0.12

- FY2019: $0.17

- FY2020: $0.11

- FY2021: $0.17

- FY2022: $0.38

- FY2023: $0.17

- FY2024: $1.19

- FY2025: $2.94

- FY2026: $4.90

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 8.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.86×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.1%

- FY2018: -4.0%

- FY2019: 3.0%

- FY2020: -11.3%

- FY2021: -5.2%

- FY2022: 1.5%

- FY2023: -3.1%

- FY2024: 2.5%

- FY2025: 7.9%

- FY2026: 8.4%

## Holders

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [John Armitage](https://gigainvestors.com/EC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.8% a year for ten years · sales +65.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:17.415Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-29: NVIDIA (NasdaqGS:NVDA) Projects Q2 Revenue At US$45 Billion Despite Export Challenges ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-nasdaqgs-nvda-projects-q2-172950288.html))

- 2025-06-20: Jensen Huang Has Created Nearly Insatiable Demand for Nvidia’s AI Products ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/44527a7d-b313-3b3d-8582-3815d697d596/jensen-huang-has-created.html))

- 2025-07-31: Nvidia (NVDA) Boosts H20 Chip Orders to Meet Soaring Chinese Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-nvda-boosts-h20-chip-153028104.html))

- 2025-11-25: Nvidia Shares Drop on Report of Google Challenge in AI Chips ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-shares-dip-google-appears-014603931.html))

- 2026-04-28: NVDA's Blackwell Platform Boosts its Top-Line Growth: What's Ahead? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvdas-blackwell-platform-boosts-top-154500200.html))

- 2026-08-27: Nvidia Sees AI-Fueled Demand Boosting Sales 70% Next Year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-sees-ai-fueled-demand-150459095.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +65.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $6.9B 

- FY2018: $9.7B 

- FY2019: $12B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $17B 

- FY2022: $27B 

- FY2023: $27B 

- FY2024: $61B 

- FY2025: $130B 

- FY2026: $216B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 71.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 58.8% 

- FY2018: 59.9% 

- FY2019: 61.2% 

- FY2020: 62.0% 

- FY2021: 62.3% 

- FY2022: 64.9% 

- FY2023: 56.9% 

- FY2024: 72.7% 

- FY2025: 75.0% 

- FY2026: 71.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 215.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2026: revenue 215938000000; grossProfit 153463000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NVDA.US: NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 71.1% to 75% during 2024–26; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 72.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 75%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 71.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,1.4555608259810897],[2018,1.753780692914854],[2019,1.1251109139307898],[2020,0.8266783852097027],[2021,0.5097128999374406],[2022,0.773041813123421],[2023,0.2593320235756385],[2024,1.2284299744876306],[2025,1.7148063533728952],[2026,1.2972372913222432]]; median 1.1767704442092102. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 2.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 176000000; owner earnings 1677000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 297881860.8252951; upkeep 295118139.1747049; owner earnings 2950881860.825295. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10094672537720106.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 204167933.40416384; upkeep 395832066.59583616; owner earnings 4007167933.404164. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0509506805797179.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 489000000; owner earnings 2688000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 30000000; upkeep 1098000000; owner earnings 4332000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.006925207756232687.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 976000000; owner earnings 9950000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 9776111.057808876; upkeep 1823223888.9421911; owner earnings 4087776111.057809. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.002391547578000566.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1069000000; owner earnings 30199000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 1372000000; upkeep 1864000000; owner earnings 72880000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.018825466520307355.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2026: growth capex 3199000000; upkeep 2843000000; owner earnings 120067000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02664345740295002.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Incremental return on capital 2.018951231184676, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,261000000],[2018,341000000],[2019,371000000],[2020,390000000],[2021,395000000],[2022,399000000],[2023,398000000],[2024,395000000],[2025,834000000],[2026,974000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2026: cash repurchases 40086000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NVDA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.007000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Competition could adversely impact our market share and financial results." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Competition could adversely impact our market share and financial results.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 67.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18620419928824694. Price 217.23; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.027756508422664625 → FY2026 4.897895080362242. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $2.31 per share

- 2016-12: $2.67 per share

- 2017-01: $2.73 per share

- 2017-02: $2.54 per share

- 2017-03: $2.72 per share

- 2017-04: $2.61 per share

- 2017-05: $3.61 per share

- 2017-06: $3.61 per share

- 2017-07: $4.06 per share

- 2017-08: $4.24 per share

- 2017-09: $4.47 per share

- 2017-10: $5.17 per share

- 2017-11: $5.02 per share

- 2017-12: $4.84 per share

- 2018-01: $6.14 per share

- 2018-02: $6.05 per share

- 2018-03: $5.79 per share

- 2018-04: $5.62 per share

- 2018-05: $6.30 per share

- 2018-06: $5.92 per share

- 2018-07: $6.12 per share

- 2018-08: $7.02 per share

- 2018-09: $7.03 per share

- 2018-10: $5.27 per share

- 2018-11: $4.09 per share

- 2018-12: $3.34 per share

- 2019-01: $3.59 per share

- 2019-02: $3.86 per share

- 2019-03: $4.49 per share

- 2019-04: $4.53 per share

- 2019-05: $3.39 per share

- 2019-06: $4.11 per share

- 2019-07: $4.22 per share

- 2019-08: $4.19 per share

- 2019-09: $4.35 per share

- 2019-10: $5.03 per share

- 2019-11: $5.42 per share

- 2019-12: $5.88 per share

- 2020-01: $5.91 per share

- 2020-02: $6.75 per share

- 2020-03: $6.59 per share

- 2020-04: $7.31 per share

- 2020-05: $8.88 per share

- 2020-06: $9.50 per share

- 2020-07: $10.61 per share

- 2020-08: $13.37 per share

- 2020-09: $13.53 per share

- 2020-10: $12.53 per share

- 2020-11: $13.40 per share

- 2020-12: $13.06 per share

- 2021-01: $12.99 per share

- 2021-02: $13.71 per share

- 2021-03: $13.35 per share

- 2021-04: $15.01 per share

- 2021-05: $16.24 per share

- 2021-06: $20.00 per share

- 2021-07: $19.50 per share

- 2021-08: $22.39 per share

- 2021-09: $20.72 per share

- 2021-10: $25.57 per share

- 2021-11: $32.68 per share

- 2021-12: $29.41 per share

- 2022-01: $24.49 per share

- 2022-02: $24.39 per share

- 2022-03: $27.29 per share

- 2022-04: $18.55 per share

- 2022-05: $18.67 per share

- 2022-06: $15.16 per share

- 2022-07: $18.16 per share

- 2022-08: $15.09 per share

- 2022-09: $12.14 per share

- 2022-10: $13.50 per share

- 2022-11: $16.92 per share

- 2022-12: $14.61 per share

- 2023-01: $19.54 per share

- 2023-02: $23.22 per share

- 2023-03: $27.78 per share

- 2023-04: $27.75 per share

- 2023-05: $37.83 per share

- 2023-06: $42.30 per share

- 2023-07: $46.73 per share

- 2023-08: $49.35 per share

- 2023-09: $43.50 per share

- 2023-10: $40.78 per share

- 2023-11: $46.77 per share

- 2023-12: $49.52 per share

- 2024-01: $61.53 per share

- 2024-02: $79.11 per share

- 2024-03: $90.36 per share

- 2024-04: $86.40 per share

- 2024-05: $109.63 per share

- 2024-06: $123.54 per share

- 2024-07: $117.02 per share

- 2024-08: $119.37 per share

- 2024-09: $121.44 per share

- 2024-10: $132.76 per share

- 2024-11: $138.25 per share

- 2024-12: $134.29 per share

- 2025-01: $120.07 per share

- 2025-02: $124.92 per share

- 2025-03: $108.38 per share

- 2025-04: $108.92 per share

- 2025-05: $135.13 per share

- 2025-06: $157.99 per share

- 2025-07: $177.87 per share

- 2025-08: $174.18 per share

- 2025-09: $186.58 per share

- 2025-10: $202.49 per share

- 2025-11: $177.00 per share

- 2025-12: $186.50 per share

- 2026-01: $191.13 per share

- 2026-02: $177.19 per share

- 2026-03: $174.40 per share

- 2026-04: $199.57 per share

- 2026-05: $211.14 per share

- 2026-06: $200.09 per share

- 2026-07: $200.75 per share

- 2026-08: $220.78 per share

- 2026-09: $228.38 per share

- 2026-10: $228.52 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $0.80 per share, central $1.02 per share, high $1.15 per share

- FY2018: low $1.09 per share, central $1.41 per share, high $1.61 per share

- FY2019: low $1.85 per share, central $2.52 per share, high $2.91 per share

- FY2020: low $1.91 per share, central $2.54 per share, high $2.91 per share

- FY2021: low $2.95 per share, central $4.10 per share, high $4.74 per share

- FY2022: low $5.20 per share, central $7.08 per share, high $8.17 per share

- FY2023: low $4.57 per share, central $6.43 per share, high $7.47 per share

- FY2024: low $9.62 per share, central $13.32 per share, high $15.47 per share

- FY2025: low $28.08 per share, central $39.41 per share, high $46.01 per share

- FY2026: low $61.74 per share, central $87.18 per share, high $101.99 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:28.620Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm); period 2026-01-25, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.