# Nova (NVMI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NVMI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:45.399Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $329.44 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $136.21 per share, central $181.08 per share, high $207.20 per share. Buy at or below the central value $181.08 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:45.399Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.06×

- FY2017: 0.26×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.21×

- FY2021: 0.27×

- FY2022: 0.26×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.28×

- FY2025: 0.29×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 31.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 20.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 56.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 57.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 29.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.5%

- FY2017: 77.7%

- FY2018: 61.1%

- FY2019: 23.4%

- FY2020: 33.2%

- FY2021: 36.2%

- FY2022: 32.3%

- FY2023: 23.3%

- FY2024: 30.1%

- FY2025: 20.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $816M

- Net income, five-year total: $813M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 76.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 36.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.04×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 61.1% vs 23.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.58 to 5.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1,000M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 33.3%

- Per-share value change: $5.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.58

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.65

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $135M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 61.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.35

- FY2017: $1.61

- FY2018: $1.90

- FY2019: $1.23

- FY2020: $1.65

- FY2021: $3.07

- FY2022: $4.42

- FY2023: $4.26

- FY2024: $5.73

- FY2025: $7.66

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.83×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.95×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.10×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.3%

- FY2017: -5.4%

- FY2018: 5.5%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -1.9%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: 2.1%

- FY2023: 1.1%

- FY2024: -3.7%

- FY2025: 0.6%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 39% since Jun 2026 · sales +31%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:17.597Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-08: Nova (NASDAQ:NVMI) Q1: Beats On Revenue, Provides Encouraging Quarterly Revenue Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nova-nasdaq-nvmi-q1-beats-123048952.html))

- 2025-06-09: NVMI Q1 Earnings Call: AI Demand Drives Growth as Tariffs Introduce Marginal Headwinds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvmi-q1-earnings-call-ai-162503876.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +31%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109345/000117891326000504/zk2634307.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: $164M 

- FY2017: $222M 

- FY2018: $251M 

- FY2019: $225M 

- FY2020: $269M 

- FY2021: $416M 

- FY2022: $571M 

- FY2023: $518M 

- FY2024: $672M 

- FY2025: $881M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 57.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109345/000117891326000504/zk2634307.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: 45.9% 

- FY2017: 59.1% 

- FY2018: 57.8% 

- FY2019: 54.2% 

- FY2020: 56.8% 

- FY2021: 57.0% 

- FY2022: 56.5% 

- FY2023: 56.6% 

- FY2024: 57.6% 

- FY2025: 57.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductor equipment & materials; annual sales are USD 880.6 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109345/000117891326000504/zk2634307.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 880577000; grossProfit 507458000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NVMI.US: Nova Ltd. engages in the design, development, production, and sale of process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. The company's product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for dimensional, films, and materials and chemical metrology measurements for process control for various semiconductor manufacturing process steps, such as lithography, Etch, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. It serves various sectors of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, including logic, foundry, memory, and packaging sectors, as well as process equipment manufacturers. Nova Ltd. was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. and changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021. Nova Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 56.6% to 57.6% during 2023–25; it earns 31.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 56.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 57.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109345/000117891326000504/zk2634307.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 57.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.13532670100029667],[2017,0.7769086857514853],[2018,0.61106184067732],[2019,0.23390382198446016],[2020,0.33191597007790297],[2021,0.36219750784324384],[2022,0.3232748315852735],[2023,0.2325549447931872],[2024,0.30120138464108204],[2025,0.2088411448389917]]; median 0.31223810811317776. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 56% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109345/000117891326000504/zk2634307.htm (filed 2026-02-17); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5704243799160325],[2022,0.5648845599224851],[2023,0.5660640019153463]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 23.8% of cash earnings; earns 76.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3133000; owner earnings 13105000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 116000; upkeep 6179000; owner earnings 46459000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.002496825157665899.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 3678000; owner earnings 58381000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 21269000; owner earnings 21928000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 6443000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 49842000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 4816000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 97218000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 6660000; upkeep 14654000; cash acquisitions 78469000; owner earnings 140213000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6071405647122592.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 17188000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 135323000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 17215000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 183926000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109345/000117891326000504/zk2634307.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 5332000; upkeep 22366000; cash acquisitions 56355000; owner earnings 259223000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.23796885307245114.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Incremental return on capital 0.7625327176160445, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109345/000117891326000504/zk2634307.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 35003000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NVMI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.13 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 25.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2078571819321674. Price 329.44; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.7672495792785542 → FY2025 7.662518474726574. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $11.97 per share

- 2016-11: $12.57 per share

- 2016-12: $13.16 per share

- 2017-01: $15.00 per share

- 2017-02: $16.66 per share

- 2017-03: $18.59 per share

- 2017-04: $20.07 per share

- 2017-05: $24.48 per share

- 2017-06: $22.09 per share

- 2017-07: $23.32 per share

- 2017-08: $23.39 per share

- 2017-09: $28.11 per share

- 2017-10: $31.26 per share

- 2017-11: $27.81 per share

- 2017-12: $25.91 per share

- 2018-01: $27.12 per share

- 2018-02: $27.39 per share

- 2018-03: $27.13 per share

- 2018-04: $26.25 per share

- 2018-05: $29.16 per share

- 2018-06: $27.25 per share

- 2018-07: $27.99 per share

- 2018-08: $29.45 per share

- 2018-09: $26.31 per share

- 2018-10: $22.56 per share

- 2018-11: $24.77 per share

- 2018-12: $22.78 per share

- 2019-01: $24.65 per share

- 2019-02: $24.70 per share

- 2019-03: $25.18 per share

- 2019-04: $27.86 per share

- 2019-05: $25.35 per share

- 2019-06: $25.59 per share

- 2019-07: $29.05 per share

- 2019-08: $27.70 per share

- 2019-09: $31.77 per share

- 2019-10: $33.51 per share

- 2019-11: $36.12 per share

- 2019-12: $37.83 per share

- 2020-01: $38.04 per share

- 2020-02: $35.34 per share

- 2020-03: $32.65 per share

- 2020-04: $38.31 per share

- 2020-05: $47.70 per share

- 2020-06: $48.19 per share

- 2020-07: $51.40 per share

- 2020-08: $53.08 per share

- 2020-09: $52.14 per share

- 2020-10: $55.63 per share

- 2020-11: $64.54 per share

- 2020-12: $70.60 per share

- 2021-01: $69.63 per share

- 2021-02: $84.00 per share

- 2021-03: $91.01 per share

- 2021-04: $94.37 per share

- 2021-05: $100.22 per share

- 2021-06: $102.89 per share

- 2021-07: $97.80 per share

- 2021-08: $101.15 per share

- 2021-09: $102.29 per share

- 2021-10: $108.62 per share

- 2021-11: $128.55 per share

- 2021-12: $146.50 per share

- 2022-01: $118.30 per share

- 2022-02: $104.78 per share

- 2022-03: $108.88 per share

- 2022-04: $98.61 per share

- 2022-05: $106.22 per share

- 2022-06: $88.53 per share

- 2022-07: $105.35 per share

- 2022-08: $99.32 per share

- 2022-09: $85.30 per share

- 2022-10: $73.71 per share

- 2022-11: $85.57 per share

- 2022-12: $81.68 per share

- 2023-01: $90.70 per share

- 2023-02: $90.58 per share

- 2023-03: $104.47 per share

- 2023-04: $91.45 per share

- 2023-05: $107.99 per share

- 2023-06: $117.30 per share

- 2023-07: $123.94 per share

- 2023-08: $128.94 per share

- 2023-09: $112.44 per share

- 2023-10: $94.97 per share

- 2023-11: $128.61 per share

- 2023-12: $137.39 per share

- 2024-01: $144.81 per share

- 2024-02: $173.45 per share

- 2024-03: $177.38 per share

- 2024-04: $169.90 per share

- 2024-05: $208.65 per share

- 2024-06: $234.53 per share

- 2024-07: $206.47 per share

- 2024-08: $223.55 per share

- 2024-09: $208.34 per share

- 2024-10: $185.30 per share

- 2024-11: $183.76 per share

- 2024-12: $196.95 per share

- 2025-01: $245.18 per share

- 2025-02: $239.18 per share

- 2025-03: $184.33 per share

- 2025-04: $196.21 per share

- 2025-05: $213.62 per share

- 2025-06: $275.20 per share

- 2025-07: $262.59 per share

- 2025-08: $263.34 per share

- 2025-09: $319.66 per share

- 2025-10: $344.64 per share

- 2025-11: $312.84 per share

- 2025-12: $328.39 per share

- 2026-01: $457.84 per share

- 2026-02: $438.86 per share

- 2026-03: $434.28 per share

- 2026-04: $500.43 per share

- 2026-05: $502.33 per share

- 2026-06: $542.94 per share

- 2026-07: $390.87 per share

- 2026-08: $348.45 per share

- 2026-09: $385.20 per share

- 2026-10: $329.44 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $11.38 per share, central $13.65 per share, high $15.42 per share

- FY2017: low $19.25 per share, central $24.53 per share, high $27.90 per share

- FY2018: low $23.79 per share, central $31.43 per share, high $35.88 per share

- FY2019: low $21.48 per share, central $27.93 per share, high $31.69 per share

- FY2020: low $37.07 per share, central $45.74 per share, high $51.16 per share

- FY2021: low $52.36 per share, central $69.11 per share, high $78.87 per share

- FY2022: low $68.24 per share, central $92.60 per share, high $106.78 per share

- FY2023: low $64.90 per share, central $86.92 per share, high $99.73 per share

- FY2024: low $87.92 per share, central $117.94 per share, high $135.41 per share

- FY2025: low $122.93 per share, central $162.55 per share, high $185.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109345/000117891326000504/zk2634307.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.