# NVR (NVR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NVR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:45.925Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $5,940.83 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $6,777.99 per share, central $7,673.05 per share, high $8,865.36 per share. Buy at or below the central value $7,673.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:45.925Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.2% at the stated quote. About 12.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.18×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.15×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 44.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 33.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 43.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 26.9%

- FY2017: 33.8%

- FY2018: 45.2%

- FY2019: 44.2%

- FY2020: 40.0%

- FY2021: 48.5%

- FY2022: 85.5%

- FY2023: 69.8%

- FY2024: 61.5%

- FY2025: 40.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 128.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 33.8% vs 61.5%

- Per-share earnings: 103.62 to 463.31 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.8%

- Market cap gain: $14B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $11B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 20.6%

- Per-share value change: $359.69

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $103.62

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $463.31

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.70

- Average buyback yield: 6.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $722M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $11B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 33.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 61.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $103.62

- FY2017: $126.77

- FY2018: $194.82

- FY2019: $221.13

- FY2020: $230.11

- FY2021: $320.48

- FY2022: $491.82

- FY2023: $463.31

- FY2024: $506.69

- FY2025: $436.55

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 3.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.84×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.5%

- FY2017: -1.0%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: 0.3%

- FY2020: -0.4%

- FY2021: -0.1%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: 1.4%

- FY2024: 4.8%

- FY2025: 3.7%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 39% since Sep 2024 · "NVR Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Margin Pressure, Stock Down" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales -8.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:17.632Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-23: NVR (NVR) Margin Miss Challenges High Quality Narrative as Valuation Premium Widens ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvr-nvr-margin-miss-challenges-171421403.html))

- 2026-07-24: NVR Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Margin Pressure, Stock Down ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvr-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-144600396.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -8.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906163/000090616326000018/nvr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: $6.3B 

- FY2018: $7.2B 

- FY2019: $7.4B 

- FY2020: $7.5B 

- FY2021: $9.0B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $9.5B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $10B 

- FY2026: $9.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 23%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906163/000090616326000018/nvr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 19.2% 

- FY2017: 21.0% 

- FY2018: 20.7% 

- FY2019: 21.0% 

- FY2020: 21.3% 

- FY2021: 24.5% 

- FY2022: 27.3% 

- FY2023: 26.0% 

- FY2024: 25.5% 

- FY2025: 23.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in residential construction; annual sales are USD 10.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 10323959000; grossProfit 2370558000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23% to 26% during 2023–25; it earns 44.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 25.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 23%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.2685093186272881],[2017,0.33843989180126915],[2018,0.4520034113462044],[2019,0.44249829129661417],[2020,0.4002844651965529],[2021,0.48543988565522017],[2022,0.855092631347795],[2023,0.6976008723779044],[2024,0.6147087192923978],[2025,0.409389893916455]]; median 0.4472508513214093. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Segment New Orders decreased 3% while the average sales price of New Orders remained flat year over year.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906163/000090616326000018/nvr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); SG&A expenses were 12% higher year over year, resulting primarily from higher personnel and marketing costs attributable to a 23% increase in the average number of active communities year over year. Segment New Orders decreased 3% while the average sales price of New Orders remained flat year over year. The decrease in New Orders was primarily attributable to a 21% lower absorption rate due to weaker demand, offset partially by the aforementioned increase in the average number of active communities within the segment year over year.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 3.6% of cash earnings; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 100000; upkeep 22269000; owner earnings 425262000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00023514915510908569.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 20269000; owner earnings 539919000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 19665000; owner earnings 797700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 1881000; upkeep 20818000; owner earnings 878539000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.002141054637301247.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 16119000; owner earnings 907121000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 17875000; owner earnings 1238307000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 1032000; upkeep 17396000; cash acquisitions 9735000; owner earnings 1725575000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0062396592440201095.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 24877000; cash acquisitions 1776000; owner earnings 1583650000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0011214599185426072.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 10837000; upkeep 18375000; cash acquisitions 3100000; owner earnings 1681928000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.008286323790316828.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 24508000; cash acquisitions 47614000; owner earnings 1339818000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.035537662578051646.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Incremental return on capital 1.2852171647091162, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,150000000],[2017,0],[2018,234000000],[2019,274028000],[2020,180866000],[2021,142370000],[2022,196717000],[2023,250509000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NVR.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 1833316000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NVR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 5.550999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If the market value of our inventory or controlled lot position declines" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906163/000090616326000018/nvr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); If the market value of our inventory or controlled lot position declines

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 17%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06442625011471623. Price 5940.8301; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 90.76004700352526 → FY2025 436.55035363752864. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $1,523.00 per share

- 2016-11: $1,595.00 per share

- 2016-12: $1,669.00 per share

- 2017-01: $1,858.00 per share

- 2017-02: $1,934.97 per share

- 2017-03: $2,106.88 per share

- 2017-04: $2,111.25 per share

- 2017-05: $2,282.38 per share

- 2017-06: $2,410.61 per share

- 2017-07: $2,610.44 per share

- 2017-08: $2,720.85 per share

- 2017-09: $2,855.00 per share

- 2017-10: $3,281.37 per share

- 2017-11: $3,475.00 per share

- 2017-12: $3,508.22 per share

- 2018-01: $3,178.17 per share

- 2018-02: $2,843.17 per share

- 2018-03: $2,800.00 per share

- 2018-04: $3,100.00 per share

- 2018-05: $2,990.54 per share

- 2018-06: $2,970.35 per share

- 2018-07: $2,759.43 per share

- 2018-08: $2,668.45 per share

- 2018-09: $2,470.80 per share

- 2018-10: $2,239.03 per share

- 2018-11: $2,450.00 per share

- 2018-12: $2,436.99 per share

- 2019-01: $2,660.00 per share

- 2019-02: $2,620.00 per share

- 2019-03: $2,767.00 per share

- 2019-04: $3,152.48 per share

- 2019-05: $3,201.57 per share

- 2019-06: $3,370.25 per share

- 2019-07: $3,344.14 per share

- 2019-08: $3,599.00 per share

- 2019-09: $3,717.35 per share

- 2019-10: $3,636.59 per share

- 2019-11: $3,791.89 per share

- 2019-12: $3,808.41 per share

- 2020-01: $3,816.97 per share

- 2020-02: $3,667.18 per share

- 2020-03: $2,569.11 per share

- 2020-04: $3,100.00 per share

- 2020-05: $3,221.61 per share

- 2020-06: $3,258.75 per share

- 2020-07: $3,930.15 per share

- 2020-08: $4,168.34 per share

- 2020-09: $4,083.12 per share

- 2020-10: $3,953.09 per share

- 2020-11: $3,997.18 per share

- 2020-12: $4,079.86 per share

- 2021-01: $4,446.48 per share

- 2021-02: $4,500.84 per share

- 2021-03: $4,710.93 per share

- 2021-04: $5,018.10 per share

- 2021-05: $4,887.23 per share

- 2021-06: $4,973.30 per share

- 2021-07: $5,222.60 per share

- 2021-08: $5,179.94 per share

- 2021-09: $4,794.08 per share

- 2021-10: $4,894.80 per share

- 2021-11: $5,225.34 per share

- 2021-12: $5,908.87 per share

- 2022-01: $5,327.22 per share

- 2022-02: $4,958.44 per share

- 2022-03: $4,467.27 per share

- 2022-04: $4,376.21 per share

- 2022-05: $4,450.62 per share

- 2022-06: $4,004.14 per share

- 2022-07: $4,393.10 per share

- 2022-08: $4,140.06 per share

- 2022-09: $3,987.08 per share

- 2022-10: $4,237.75 per share

- 2022-11: $4,639.01 per share

- 2022-12: $4,612.58 per share

- 2023-01: $5,270.00 per share

- 2023-02: $5,173.62 per share

- 2023-03: $5,572.19 per share

- 2023-04: $5,840.00 per share

- 2023-05: $5,554.22 per share

- 2023-06: $6,350.62 per share

- 2023-07: $6,306.44 per share

- 2023-08: $6,377.33 per share

- 2023-09: $5,963.30 per share

- 2023-10: $5,412.62 per share

- 2023-11: $6,155.39 per share

- 2023-12: $7,000.45 per share

- 2024-01: $7,075.29 per share

- 2024-02: $7,625.57 per share

- 2024-03: $8,099.96 per share

- 2024-04: $7,438.85 per share

- 2024-05: $7,680.73 per share

- 2024-06: $7,588.56 per share

- 2024-07: $8,607.48 per share

- 2024-08: $9,172.46 per share

- 2024-09: $9,811.80 per share

- 2024-10: $9,152.81 per share

- 2024-11: $9,235.58 per share

- 2024-12: $8,178.90 per share

- 2025-01: $8,016.18 per share

- 2025-02: $7,245.58 per share

- 2025-03: $7,244.39 per share

- 2025-04: $7,125.75 per share

- 2025-05: $7,115.93 per share

- 2025-06: $7,385.66 per share

- 2025-07: $7,549.49 per share

- 2025-08: $8,117.65 per share

- 2025-09: $8,034.66 per share

- 2025-10: $7,210.82 per share

- 2025-11: $7,507.29 per share

- 2025-12: $7,292.77 per share

- 2026-01: $7,635.73 per share

- 2026-02: $7,517.79 per share

- 2026-03: $6,589.83 per share

- 2026-04: $6,315.87 per share

- 2026-05: $6,104.80 per share

- 2026-06: $6,813.40 per share

- 2026-07: $6,147.05 per share

- 2026-08: $6,315.23 per share

- 2026-09: $6,154.39 per share

- 2026-10: $5,940.83 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $1,041.24 per share, central $1,175.44 per share, high $1,354.09 per share

- FY2017: low $1,704.67 per share, central $2,428.24 per share, high $2,831.80 per share

- FY2018: low $2,042.47 per share, central $2,915.79 per share, high $3,402.87 per share

- FY2019: low $2,562.82 per share, central $3,624.00 per share, high $4,215.86 per share

- FY2020: low $3,780.95 per share, central $5,207.80 per share, high $6,003.61 per share

- FY2021: low $4,622.65 per share, central $6,458.76 per share, high $7,482.82 per share

- FY2022: low $5,902.08 per share, central $8,307.48 per share, high $9,649.06 per share

- FY2023: low $6,450.68 per share, central $9,006.14 per share, high $10,431.41 per share

- FY2024: low $8,080.52 per share, central $11,455.94 per share, high $13,338.54 per share

- FY2025: low $6,688.82 per share, central $7,544.32 per share, high $8,683.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:29.825Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906163/000090616326000018/nvr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.