# NorthWestern (NWE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NWE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:46.812Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $73.85 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $37.47 per share, central $42.96 per share, high $49.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value $42.96 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:46.812Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.22×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.19×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -13.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 68.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 82.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 32.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.2%

- FY2017: 6.8%

- FY2018: 7.2%

- FY2019: 7.0%

- FY2020: 5.7%

- FY2021: 6.0%

- FY2022: 5.3%

- FY2023: 5.5%

- FY2024: 5.8%

- FY2025: 5.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.63×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $613M

- Net income, five-year total: $969M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.84×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.2% vs 5.5%

- Per-share earnings: 3.34 to 3.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Market cap gain: $1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $500M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -0.5%

- Per-share value change: -$0.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.34

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $36M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.39

- FY2017: $3.34

- FY2018: $3.92

- FY2019: $3.98

- FY2020: $3.06

- FY2021: $3.60

- FY2022: $3.25

- FY2023: $3.22

- FY2024: $3.65

- FY2025: $2.94

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.3%

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -3.3%

- FY2019: -1.6%

- FY2020: -3.1%

- FY2021: -0.5%

- FY2022: -1.7%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: -2.3%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.9% a year for ten years · sales +5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:17.791Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: NorthWestern beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; initiates FY and reaffirms long-term outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4475115-northwestern-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-initiates-fy-and-reaffirms-long-term-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-30: NorthWestern beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; reaffirms FY25 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4510989-northwestern-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-reaffirms-fy25-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73088/000007308823000028/nwe-20221231.htm; observed 2023-02-17.

- FY2017: $1.3B 

- FY2018: $1.2B 

- FY2019: $1.3B 

- FY2020: $1.2B 

- FY2021: $1.4B 

- FY2022: $1.5B 

- FY2023: $1.4B 

- FY2024: $1.5B 

- FY2025: $1.6B 

- FY2026: $1.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 82.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73088/000007308823000028/nwe-20221231.htm; observed 2023-02-17.

- FY2016: 68.1% 

- FY2017: 68.6% 

- FY2018: 77.1% 

- FY2019: 58.1% 

- FY2020: 74.5% 

- FY2021: 69.0% 

- FY2022: 51.7% 

- FY2023: 54.9% 

- FY2024: 85.0% 

- FY2025: 82.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated electric; annual sales are USD 1.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2025: revenue 1610559000; grossProfit 1325635000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NWE.US: NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,596 miles of electric transmission and 18,946 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 397 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,133 miles of natural gas transmission and 5,939 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 134 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,344 miles of electric transmission and 2,386 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota with approximately 123 transmission and distribution substations; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission, 1,853 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota, and 836 miles of natural gas distribution lines Nebraska. The company provides electricity and/or natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 54.9% to 85% during 2023–25; it earns 5.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 54.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 85%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 82.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07162039070062166],[2017,0.06766262630974197],[2018,0.07193635867030988],[2019,0.07045196135613854],[2020,0.05693860618002419],[2021,0.059689900515041985],[2022,0.05336410347742251],[2023,0.05549232932658015],[2024,0.05777112292585568],[2025,0.05289447191318085]]; median 0.05873051172044883. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 4% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 123863762.88641277; upkeep 164037237.11358723; owner earnings 159470762.88641277. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7767176919736565.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 110301000; upkeep 166137000; owner earnings 162703000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6779284954794933.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 283966000; owner earnings 87470000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 143077000; upkeep 172923000; owner earnings 202120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7078814565604591.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 246861000; upkeep 187467000; owner earnings 186840000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.321242774566474.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73088/000007308823000028/nwe-20221231.htm (filed 2023-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 320120000; upkeep 195020000; owner earnings 183008000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7492131491519496.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 321609000; upkeep 227635000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 224111000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.4350433490547094.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 274930000; upkeep 249526000; cash acquisitions 35938000; owner earnings 181092000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.7166302211030857.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); Incremental return on capital 0.04006044586414438, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,95765000],[2017,101270000],[2018,109202000],[2019,115100000],[2020,120350000],[2021,128483000],[2022,140062000],[2023,154050000],[2024,158589000],[2025,161389000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NWE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.668 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10018544617588432. Price 73.85; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.773072151373919 → FY2025 2.9426036299651073. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $57.55 per share

- 2016-11: $56.10 per share

- 2016-12: $56.87 per share

- 2017-01: $57.11 per share

- 2017-02: $58.50 per share

- 2017-03: $58.70 per share

- 2017-04: $59.78 per share

- 2017-05: $61.96 per share

- 2017-06: $61.02 per share

- 2017-07: $57.79 per share

- 2017-08: $60.32 per share

- 2017-09: $56.94 per share

- 2017-10: $59.28 per share

- 2017-11: $64.26 per share

- 2017-12: $59.70 per share

- 2018-01: $54.34 per share

- 2018-02: $51.08 per share

- 2018-03: $53.80 per share

- 2018-04: $54.94 per share

- 2018-05: $54.48 per share

- 2018-06: $57.25 per share

- 2018-07: $59.33 per share

- 2018-08: $59.96 per share

- 2018-09: $58.66 per share

- 2018-10: $58.76 per share

- 2018-11: $63.96 per share

- 2018-12: $59.44 per share

- 2019-01: $63.91 per share

- 2019-02: $68.54 per share

- 2019-03: $70.41 per share

- 2019-04: $69.85 per share

- 2019-05: $70.94 per share

- 2019-06: $72.15 per share

- 2019-07: $69.92 per share

- 2019-08: $72.44 per share

- 2019-09: $75.05 per share

- 2019-10: $72.52 per share

- 2019-11: $71.57 per share

- 2019-12: $71.67 per share

- 2020-01: $76.97 per share

- 2020-02: $70.34 per share

- 2020-03: $59.83 per share

- 2020-04: $57.69 per share

- 2020-05: $60.12 per share

- 2020-06: $54.52 per share

- 2020-07: $56.26 per share

- 2020-08: $51.64 per share

- 2020-09: $48.64 per share

- 2020-10: $52.13 per share

- 2020-11: $58.00 per share

- 2020-12: $58.31 per share

- 2021-01: $54.47 per share

- 2021-02: $58.48 per share

- 2021-03: $65.20 per share

- 2021-04: $68.03 per share

- 2021-05: $63.35 per share

- 2021-06: $60.22 per share

- 2021-07: $61.99 per share

- 2021-08: $63.60 per share

- 2021-09: $57.30 per share

- 2021-10: $56.86 per share

- 2021-11: $55.30 per share

- 2021-12: $57.16 per share

- 2022-01: $58.12 per share

- 2022-02: $60.48 per share

- 2022-03: $60.49 per share

- 2022-04: $56.69 per share

- 2022-05: $61.27 per share

- 2022-06: $58.93 per share

- 2022-07: $55.45 per share

- 2022-08: $52.98 per share

- 2022-09: $49.28 per share

- 2022-10: $52.83 per share

- 2022-11: $58.41 per share

- 2022-12: $59.34 per share

- 2023-01: $56.80 per share

- 2023-02: $57.78 per share

- 2023-03: $57.86 per share

- 2023-04: $58.62 per share

- 2023-05: $56.59 per share

- 2023-06: $56.76 per share

- 2023-07: $56.47 per share

- 2023-08: $50.40 per share

- 2023-09: $48.06 per share

- 2023-10: $48.01 per share

- 2023-11: $50.31 per share

- 2023-12: $50.89 per share

- 2024-01: $48.12 per share

- 2024-02: $47.92 per share

- 2024-03: $50.93 per share

- 2024-04: $50.44 per share

- 2024-05: $51.96 per share

- 2024-06: $50.08 per share

- 2024-07: $53.77 per share

- 2024-08: $54.39 per share

- 2024-09: $57.22 per share

- 2024-10: $53.46 per share

- 2024-11: $55.24 per share

- 2024-12: $53.46 per share

- 2025-01: $53.91 per share

- 2025-02: $55.93 per share

- 2025-03: $57.87 per share

- 2025-04: $58.23 per share

- 2025-05: $55.33 per share

- 2025-06: $51.30 per share

- 2025-07: $53.70 per share

- 2025-08: $57.51 per share

- 2025-09: $58.61 per share

- 2025-10: $59.67 per share

- 2025-11: $69.09 per share

- 2025-12: $64.54 per share

- 2026-01: $67.86 per share

- 2026-02: $69.96 per share

- 2026-03: $65.94 per share

- 2026-04: $72.34 per share

- 2026-05: $70.61 per share

- 2026-06: $71.62 per share

- 2026-07: $68.74 per share

- 2026-08: $69.16 per share

- 2026-09: $68.38 per share

- 2026-10: $73.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $21.41 per share, central $24.36 per share, high $28.29 per share

- FY2017: low $23.88 per share, central $27.17 per share, high $31.55 per share

- FY2018: low $19.59 per share, central $22.29 per share, high $25.88 per share

- FY2019: low $33.76 per share, central $38.41 per share, high $44.61 per share

- FY2020: low $32.20 per share, central $36.64 per share, high $42.55 per share

- FY2021: low $36.03 per share, central $41.00 per share, high $47.62 per share

- FY2022: low $35.53 per share, central $40.43 per share, high $46.96 per share

- FY2023: low $31.89 per share, central $36.29 per share, high $42.14 per share

- FY2024: low $33.37 per share, central $37.97 per share, high $44.10 per share

- FY2025: low $35.68 per share, central $40.90 per share, high $47.52 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73088/000007308823000028/nwe-20221231.htm); period 2022-12-31, filed 2023-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.