# NatWest Group (NWG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NWG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:47.406Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 674.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 218.88 per share, central GBX 270.44 per share, high GBX 353.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 270.44 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:47.406Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- positive earnings in fewer than 9 of 10 years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 8

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 1.56×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP -7.0B

- FY2017: GBP 752M

- FY2018: GBP 1.6B

- FY2019: GBP 3.1B

- FY2020: GBP -753M

- FY2021: GBP 3.0B

- FY2022: GBP 3.3B

- FY2023: GBP 4.6B

- FY2024: GBP 4.8B

- FY2025: GBP 5.8B

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- return on tangible common equity below 5% in more than one year

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 8.4%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: -2.0%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -16.5%

- FY2017: 1.8%

- FY2018: 4.1%

- FY2019: 8.5%

- FY2020: -2.0%

- FY2021: 8.4%

- FY2022: 11.4%

- FY2023: 15.7%

- FY2024: 15.1%

- FY2025: 19.0%

### economics: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 3.3%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: GBP 4.37

- Ending book value per share: GBP 3.80

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.7%

- FY2017: -1.3%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: 2.9%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: 2.9%

- FY2022: 1.5%

- FY2023: -6.1%

- FY2024: 52.2%

- FY2025: 5.7%

### management: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book per share gain below retained common earnings per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.4%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -2.8%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -6.4%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book value created per share: GBP -0.58

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: GBP -1.16

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 8.3% a year forever · net income +21.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.760Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 8.3% a year forever

### Net income · FY2025

net income +21.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138005O9XJIJN4JPN90/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138005O9XJIJN4JPN90-2025-12-31/reports/2138005O9XJIJN4JPN90-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-04-29.

- FY2016: GBP -7.0B 

- FY2017: GBP 752M 

- FY2018: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.1B 

- FY2020: GBP -753M 

- FY2021: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2022: GBP 3.3B 

- FY2023: GBP 4.6B 

- FY2024: GBP 4.8B 

- FY2025: GBP 5.8B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in regional banking; annual sales are GBP 29.5 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2025: revenue 29478000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NWG.LSE: NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments. The Retail Banking segment offers a range of banking products and related financial services, such as current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits, as well as mobile and online banking services. Its Private Banking segment provides banking, lending, and wealth management products for high-net-worth individuals and their business interests. The Commercial & Institutional segment consists of customer businesses under business banking, commercial mid-market, and corporates and institutions; and offers banking operations services in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, and Luxembourg, as well as products and solutions for businesses comprising start-ups, corporates, and large institutions. The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. NatWest Group plc was founded in 1727 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

It earns 8.4% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,-0.16508818153765814],[2017,0.017996027472658962],[2018,0.041462167689161555],[2019,0.08484766418415708],[2020,-0.02023921515925279],[2021,0.08411028426424885],[2022,0.11371374097780199],[2023,0.15692380597772737],[2024,0.15118695296265977],[2025,0.18971238938053098]]; median 0.08447897422420297. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 2.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); Dividend observations: [[2016,504000000],[2017,612000000],[2018,803000000],[2019,3424000000],[2020,381000000],[2021,1016000000],[2022,3205000000],[2023,1703000000],[2024,1800000000],[2025,2376000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); FY2025: cash repurchases 2558000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NWG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.055999999999999994 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 8.3% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-29); Price 674; FX 100; original perpetual distributable cash 0.11482328270754448; discount 0.1; growth 0.08296390464279756. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-11: GBX 209.25 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 241.88 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 238.86 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 256.09 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 260.72 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 285.82 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 280.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 266.22 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 267.72 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 271.28 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 288.94 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 304.23 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 297.88 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 299.38 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 309.83 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 288.29 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 278.71 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 290.98 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 296.26 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 275.80 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 275.05 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 259.86 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 269.23 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 254.58 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 234.98 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 233.37 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 259.43 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 286.14 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 266.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 258.03 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 230.14 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 236.71 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 233.69 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 199.72 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 223.57 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 229.06 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 243.60 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 258.78 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 235.09 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 192.39 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 121.58 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 119.05 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 118.84 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 130.95 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 114.15 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 121.48 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 114.21 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 133.75 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 166.49 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 180.55 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 158.95 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 198.37 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 211.35 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 211.72 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 222.92 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 218.83 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 217.97 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 229.49 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 242.20 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 238.11 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 228.95 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 243.06 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 261.05 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 247.37 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 232.51 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 234.77 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 245.75 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 235.09 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 267.72 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 246.45 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 225.90 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 234.80 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 261.90 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 265.20 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 308.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 292.30 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 263.60 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 262.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 259.60 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 240.80 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 244.30 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 230.40 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 235.70 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 178.20 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 207.90 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 219.40 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 225.20 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 239.10 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 265.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 303.50 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 315.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 311.80 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 368.10 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 345.20 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 343.90 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 367.70 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 402.70 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 402.10 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 433.10 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 478.80 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 451.80 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 478.20 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 524.60 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 511.40 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 527.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 510.60 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 521.60 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 584.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 632.20 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 651.80 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 665.20 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 619.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 553.20 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 585.20 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 599.40 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 667.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 705.80 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 679.40 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 688.40 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 667.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2022: low GBX 8.51 per share, central GBX 9.40 per share, high GBX 10.49 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 57.58 per share, central GBX 65.38 per share, high GBX 75.61 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 169.07 per share, central GBX 200.60 per share, high GBX 246.59 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 267.45 per share, central GBX 330.44 per share, high GBX 432.24 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:33.335Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138005O9XJIJN4JPN90/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138005O9XJIJN4JPN90-2025-12-31/reports/2138005O9XJIJN4JPN90-2025-12-31-T01.html); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-04-29.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

NatWest Group

NWG · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 674.00
Buy up to: GBX 270.44
Expected / yr: 7.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Profits were positive in 8 years (at least 9 needed).

Net income

10y median: GBP 3.0B
Worst year: GBP -7.0B
Latest · 2025: GBP 5.8B

Earned a median 8.4% on tangible equity (minimum 12%), and the second-worst year -2% (minimum 5%).

Return on tangible common equity

10y median: 8.4%
Worst year: -16.5%
Latest · 2025: 19.0%

Book value plus dividends grew 3.3% a year (minimum 7%).

Annual book + dividend return

10y median: 1.6%
Worst year: -10.7%
Latest · 2025: 5.7%

Book value gained -0.58 per share against 0 kept (must cover the amount kept).

Filing signals · estimated likelihood

per-share value change
Passing bar: ≥ GBP 0

0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).

Filing signals · estimated likelihood

accounting warnings: 0
Passing bar: ≤ 0

Profit record · pass 2 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 0.58 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-11 · Price GBX 209.25; 2016-12 · Price GBX 241.88; 2017-01 · Price GBX 238.86; 2017-02 · Price GBX 256.09; 2017-03 · Price GBX 260.72; 2017-04 · Price GBX 285.82; 2017-05 · Price GBX 280.00; 2017-06 · Price GBX 266.22; 2017-07 · Price GBX 267.72; 2017-08 · Price GBX 271.28; 2017-09 · Price GBX 288.94; 2017-10 · Price GBX 304.23; 2017-11 · Price GBX 297.88; 2017-12 · Price GBX 299.38; 2018-01 · Price GBX 309.83; 2018-02 · Price GBX 288.29; 2018-03 · Price GBX 278.71; 2018-04 · Price GBX 290.98; 2018-05 · Price GBX 296.26; 2018-06 · Price GBX 275.80; 2018-07 · Price GBX 275.05; 2018-08 · Price GBX 259.86; 2018-09 · Price GBX 269.23; 2018-10 · Price GBX 254.58; 2018-11 · Price GBX 234.98; 2018-12 · Price GBX 233.37; 2019-01 · Price GBX 259.43; 2019-02 · Price GBX 286.14; 2019-03 · Price GBX 266.00; 2019-04 · Price GBX 258.03; 2019-05 · Price GBX 230.14; 2019-06 · Price GBX 236.71; 2019-07 · Price GBX 233.69; 2019-08 · Price GBX 199.72; 2019-09 · Price GBX 223.57; 2019-10 · Price GBX 229.06; 2019-11 · Price GBX 243.60; 2019-12 · Price GBX 258.78; 2020-01 · Price GBX 235.09; 2020-02 · Price GBX 192.39; 2020-03 · Price GBX 121.58; 2020-04 · Price GBX 119.05; 2020-05 · Price GBX 118.84; 2020-06 · Price GBX 130.95; 2020-07 · Price GBX 114.15; 2020-08 · Price GBX 121.48; 2020-09 · Price GBX 114.21; 2020-10 · Price GBX 133.75; 2020-11 · Price GBX 166.49; 2020-12 · Price GBX 180.55; 2021-01 · Price GBX 158.95; 2021-02 · Price GBX 198.37; 2021-03 · Price GBX 211.35; 2021-04 · Price GBX 211.72; 2021-05 · Price GBX 222.92; 2021-06 · Price GBX 218.83; 2021-07 · Price GBX 217.97; 2021-08 · Price GBX 229.49; 2021-09 · Price GBX 242.20; 2021-10 · Price GBX 238.11; 2021-11 · Price GBX 228.95; 2021-12 · Price GBX 243.06; 2022-01 · Price GBX 261.05 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-02 · Price GBX 247.37 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-03 · Price GBX 232.51 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-04 · Price GBX 234.77 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-05 · Price GBX 245.75 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-06 · Price GBX 235.09 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-07 · Price GBX 267.72 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-08 · Price GBX 246.45 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-09 · Price GBX 225.90 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-10 · Price GBX 234.80 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-11 · Price GBX 261.90 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2022-12 · Price GBX 265.20 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2023-01 · Price GBX 308.00 · Value 9.40 · Buy at or below 9.40; 2023-02 · Price GBX 292.30 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-03 · Price GBX 263.60 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-04 · Price GBX 262.00 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-05 · Price GBX 259.60 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-06 · Price GBX 240.80 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-07 · Price GBX 244.30 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-08 · Price GBX 230.40 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-09 · Price GBX 235.70 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-10 · Price GBX 178.20 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-11 · Price GBX 207.90 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2023-12 · Price GBX 219.40 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2024-01 · Price GBX 225.20 · Value 65.38 · Buy at or below 65.38; 2024-02 · Price GBX 239.10 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-03 · Price GBX 265.50 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-04 · Price GBX 303.50 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-05 · Price GBX 315.00 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-06 · Price GBX 311.80 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-07 · Price GBX 368.10 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-08 · Price GBX 345.20 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-09 · Price GBX 343.90 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-10 · Price GBX 367.70 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-11 · Price GBX 402.70 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2024-12 · Price GBX 402.10 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2025-01 · Price GBX 433.10 · Value 200.60 · Buy at or below 200.60; 2025-02 · Price GBX 478.80 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-03 · Price GBX 451.80 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-04 · Price GBX 478.20 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-05 · Price GBX 524.60 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-06 · Price GBX 511.40 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-07 · Price GBX 527.00 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-08 · Price GBX 510.60 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-09 · Price GBX 521.60 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-10 · Price GBX 584.00 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-11 · Price GBX 632.20 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2025-12 · Price GBX 651.80 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2026-01 · Price GBX 665.20 · Value 330.44 · Buy at or below 330.44; 2026-02 · Price GBX 619.00 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-03 · Price GBX 553.20 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-04 · Price GBX 585.20 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-05 · Price GBX 599.40 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-06 · Price GBX 667.00 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-07 · Price GBX 705.80 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-08 · Price GBX 679.40 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-09 · Price GBX 688.40 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-10 · Price GBX 667.20 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44; 2026-10 · Price GBX 674.00 · Value 270.44 · Buy at or below 270.44

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 218.88 – GBX 353.75
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 270.44
Discount to value	1 − 674.00 / 270.44 = -149.2%
Return / year	About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Book GBX 310.60/share; ROE 9.5%; first payout GBX 11.48/share, growing 5.8% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied).
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

Net incomeGBP 5.8B

Net income

Book / shareGBP 3.80

Book / share

Dividend / shareGBP 0.29

Dividend / share

Return on tangible equity19.0%

Return on tangible equity

Diluted shares8.1B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·