# NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NXPI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:48.466Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $231.09 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $133.35 per share, central $150.12 per share, high $172.44 per share. Buy at or below the central value $150.12 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:48.466Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.56×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.02×

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.27×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 35.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 53.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 15.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.3%

- FY2017: 27.4%

- FY2018: 40.5%

- FY2019: 10.1%

- FY2020: 7.7%

- FY2021: 52.5%

- FY2022: 63.3%

- FY2023: 53.2%

- FY2024: 39.8%

- FY2025: 30.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.08×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $13B

- Net income, five-year total: $12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.18×

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.04×

- FY2024: 1.08×

- FY2025: 1.15×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 27.4% vs 39.8%

- Per-share earnings: 5.62 to 9.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.1%

- Market cap gain: $21B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.1%

- Per-share value change: $4.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.62

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.12

- Average buyback yield: 4.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $17B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 27.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 39.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.58

- FY2017: $6.38

- FY2018: $7.49

- FY2019: $0.85

- FY2020: $0.18

- FY2021: $6.96

- FY2022: $10.66

- FY2023: $10.75

- FY2024: $9.73

- FY2025: $7.95

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -3.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 16.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.40×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.18×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.4%

- FY2017: -1.0%

- FY2018: -10.0%

- FY2019: -10.6%

- FY2020: -12.2%

- FY2021: -5.8%

- FY2022: -4.8%

- FY2023: -2.9%

- FY2024: -1.1%

- FY2025: -3.0%

## Holders

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 28% since May 2026 · "NXP downgraded by UBS as China and AI risks cloud growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -2.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:18.166Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-28: Update: NXP Semiconductors Q1 Non-GAAP Earnings, Sales Fall; CEO Sievers to Retire ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nxp-semiconductors-q1-non-gaap-215216954.html))

- 2025-07-21: NXP Shares Decline After Automotive Chip Sales Remain Sluggish ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nxp-shares-decline-automotive-chip-202957261.html))

- 2026-04-30: NXP Semiconductors (NXP) Climbs to All-Time High as Earnings Soar 129% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nxp-semiconductors-nxp-climbs-time-023055999.html))

- 2026-05-05: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Is Up 22.8% After Strong Q1 Results And Upbeat Q2 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nxp-semiconductors-nxpi-22-8-111401642.html))

- 2026-09-12: NXP Semiconductors Eyes Physical AI Leadership, Sees Data Center Growth Surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nxp-semiconductors-eyes-physical-ai-130200789.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413447/000141344726000008/nxpi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $9.5B 

- FY2017: $9.3B 

- FY2018: $9.4B 

- FY2019: $8.9B 

- FY2020: $8.6B 

- FY2021: $11B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $13B 

- FY2024: $13B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 54.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413447/000141344726000008/nxpi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 42.8% 

- FY2017: 49.9% 

- FY2018: 51.6% 

- FY2019: 52.0% 

- FY2020: 49.2% 

- FY2021: 54.8% 

- FY2022: 56.9% 

- FY2023: 56.9% 

- FY2024: 56.4% 

- FY2025: 54.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 12.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413447/000141344726000008/nxpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 12269000000; grossProfit 6678000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NXPI.US: NXP Semiconductors N.V. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Netherlands, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, Thread, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface products; radio frequency devices, and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to direct sales offices and independent distributors. NXP Semiconductors N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 54.4% to 56.9% during 2023–25; it earns 35% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 56.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 56.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413447/000141344726000008/nxpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 54.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.01262653169952051],[2017,0.2737335590571689],[2018,0.40464231901170455],[2019,0.10121984919663653],[2020,0.07690265486725664],[2021,0.5245814545377827],[2022,0.6331989183542022],[2023,0.5318740358461246],[2024,0.3976454992883045],[2025,0.3030108257180896]]; median 0.3503281625031971. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 899 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 448000000; owner earnings 1957000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 618000000; owner earnings 3770000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 661000000; owner earnings 3534000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 628000000; owner earnings 1662000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 522000000; owner earnings 1518000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 932000000; owner earnings 2201000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1227000000; owner earnings 2810000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1006000000; owner earnings 2897000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 727000000; owner earnings 2708000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413447/000141344726000008/nxpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 537000000; owner earnings 2315999999. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,74000000],[2017,74000000],[2018,74000000],[2019,319000000],[2020,420000000],[2021,562000000],[2022,815000000],[2023,1006000000],[2024,1038000000],[2025,1025000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413447/000141344726000008/nxpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 898999999 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NXPI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.13899999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our business has suffered, and could in the future suffer, from manufacturing problems." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413447/000141344726000008/nxpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); Our business has suffered, and could in the future suffer, from manufacturing problems.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08272589938879815. Price 231.09; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.218974126859712 → FY2025 9.115311042278355. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $100.00 per share

- 2016-11: $99.15 per share

- 2016-12: $98.01 per share

- 2017-01: $97.85 per share

- 2017-02: $102.81 per share

- 2017-03: $103.50 per share

- 2017-04: $105.75 per share

- 2017-05: $109.90 per share

- 2017-06: $109.45 per share

- 2017-07: $110.33 per share

- 2017-08: $112.96 per share

- 2017-09: $113.09 per share

- 2017-10: $117.05 per share

- 2017-11: $113.39 per share

- 2017-12: $117.09 per share

- 2018-01: $120.32 per share

- 2018-02: $124.66 per share

- 2018-03: $117.00 per share

- 2018-04: $104.90 per share

- 2018-05: $114.00 per share

- 2018-06: $109.27 per share

- 2018-07: $95.34 per share

- 2018-08: $93.14 per share

- 2018-09: $85.50 per share

- 2018-10: $74.99 per share

- 2018-11: $83.37 per share

- 2018-12: $73.28 per share

- 2019-01: $87.03 per share

- 2019-02: $91.32 per share

- 2019-03: $88.39 per share

- 2019-04: $105.62 per share

- 2019-05: $88.16 per share

- 2019-06: $97.61 per share

- 2019-07: $103.39 per share

- 2019-08: $102.14 per share

- 2019-09: $109.12 per share

- 2019-10: $113.68 per share

- 2019-11: $115.58 per share

- 2019-12: $127.26 per share

- 2020-01: $126.86 per share

- 2020-02: $113.69 per share

- 2020-03: $82.93 per share

- 2020-04: $99.57 per share

- 2020-05: $96.10 per share

- 2020-06: $114.04 per share

- 2020-07: $117.53 per share

- 2020-08: $125.76 per share

- 2020-09: $124.81 per share

- 2020-10: $135.12 per share

- 2020-11: $158.42 per share

- 2020-12: $159.01 per share

- 2021-01: $160.47 per share

- 2021-02: $182.55 per share

- 2021-03: $201.34 per share

- 2021-04: $192.51 per share

- 2021-05: $211.42 per share

- 2021-06: $205.72 per share

- 2021-07: $206.39 per share

- 2021-08: $215.13 per share

- 2021-09: $195.87 per share

- 2021-10: $200.86 per share

- 2021-11: $223.36 per share

- 2021-12: $227.78 per share

- 2022-01: $205.44 per share

- 2022-02: $190.12 per share

- 2022-03: $185.08 per share

- 2022-04: $170.90 per share

- 2022-05: $189.76 per share

- 2022-06: $148.03 per share

- 2022-07: $183.88 per share

- 2022-08: $164.58 per share

- 2022-09: $147.51 per share

- 2022-10: $146.08 per share

- 2022-11: $175.84 per share

- 2022-12: $158.03 per share

- 2023-01: $184.31 per share

- 2023-02: $178.48 per share

- 2023-03: $186.48 per share

- 2023-04: $163.74 per share

- 2023-05: $179.10 per share

- 2023-06: $204.68 per share

- 2023-07: $222.98 per share

- 2023-08: $205.72 per share

- 2023-09: $199.92 per share

- 2023-10: $172.43 per share

- 2023-11: $204.08 per share

- 2023-12: $229.68 per share

- 2024-01: $210.57 per share

- 2024-02: $249.73 per share

- 2024-03: $247.77 per share

- 2024-04: $256.19 per share

- 2024-05: $272.10 per share

- 2024-06: $269.09 per share

- 2024-07: $263.16 per share

- 2024-08: $256.36 per share

- 2024-09: $240.01 per share

- 2024-10: $234.50 per share

- 2024-11: $229.37 per share

- 2024-12: $207.85 per share

- 2025-01: $208.55 per share

- 2025-02: $215.59 per share

- 2025-03: $190.06 per share

- 2025-04: $184.31 per share

- 2025-05: $191.13 per share

- 2025-06: $218.49 per share

- 2025-07: $213.77 per share

- 2025-08: $234.85 per share

- 2025-09: $227.73 per share

- 2025-10: $209.12 per share

- 2025-11: $194.94 per share

- 2025-12: $217.06 per share

- 2026-01: $226.14 per share

- 2026-02: $227.01 per share

- 2026-03: $196.86 per share

- 2026-04: $293.59 per share

- 2026-05: $321.35 per share

- 2026-06: $281.03 per share

- 2026-07: $229.16 per share

- 2026-08: $224.64 per share

- 2026-09: $237.53 per share

- 2026-10: $226.32 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $43.37 per share, central $48.66 per share, high $55.71 per share

- FY2017: low $69.73 per share, central $78.01 per share, high $89.03 per share

- FY2018: low $105.38 per share, central $118.70 per share, high $136.42 per share

- FY2019: low $96.95 per share, central $109.89 per share, high $127.13 per share

- FY2020: low $72.46 per share, central $81.47 per share, high $93.47 per share

- FY2021: low $99.16 per share, central $111.49 per share, high $127.91 per share

- FY2022: low $122.66 per share, central $137.80 per share, high $157.96 per share

- FY2023: low $125.48 per share, central $140.77 per share, high $161.13 per share

- FY2024: low $124.56 per share, central $140.25 per share, high $161.14 per share

- FY2025: low $124.21 per share, central $139.69 per share, high $160.31 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413447/000141344726000008/nxpi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.