# Nextpower (NXT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NXT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:48.844Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $83.45 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $38.53 per share, central $42.92 per share, high $48.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value $42.92 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:48.844Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.00×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.22×

- FY2026: 0.20×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.19×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 84.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -13.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 32.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 42.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 1.0%

- FY2020: 50.0%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 24.4%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: 97.1%

- FY2026: 71.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 1572.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.97×

- FY2026: 0.99×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 50.0% vs 97.1%

- Per-share earnings: 2.58 to 3.41 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 29.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 29.5%

- Per-share value growth: 5.8%

- Per-share value change: $0.83

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.58

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.41

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.50

- Average buyback yield: 6.6%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: 50.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 97.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -$0.04

- FY2020: $2.58

- FY2021: $2.97

- FY2022: $1.11

- FY2023: $0.82

- FY2024: $2.08

- FY2025: $3.41

- FY2026: $3.84

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 0.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.32×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 21.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.95×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.24×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 2.2%

- FY2020: -19.8%

- FY2021: 3.4%

- FY2022: 19.5%

- FY2023: 0.8%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -4.6%

- FY2026: 0.7%

## Holders

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 47% since May 2026 · "Nextpower (NXT) Is Down 5.3% After Cutting EBITDA Guidance Despite Q2 Revenue Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:18.297Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.3% a year for ten years

- 2026-01-25: Why Nextpower (NXT) Is Up 9.0% After Launching MENA-Focused Solar JV And Jeddah Factory ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-nextpower-nxt-9-0-070840272.html))

- 2026-05-28: Nextpower enters BESS, AI data center markets in $365M deal for Prevalon Energy ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4598133-nextpower-enters-bess-ai-data-center-markets-in-365m-deal-for-prevalon-energy?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-27: Nextpower (NXT) Is Down 5.3% After Cutting EBITDA Guidance Despite Q2 Revenue Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nextpower-nxt-down-5-3-210641491.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852131/000185213126000017/nxt-20260331.htm; observed 2026-05-19.

- FY2019: $661M 

- FY2020: $1.2B 

- FY2021: $1.2B 

- FY2022: $1.5B 

- FY2023: $1.9B 

- FY2024: $2.5B 

- FY2025: $3.0B 

- FY2026: $3.6B 

- FY2027: $3.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 32.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852131/000185213126000017/nxt-20260331.htm; observed 2026-05-19.

- FY2019: 8.6% 

- FY2020: 18.2% 

- FY2021: 19.4% 

- FY2022: 10.1% 

- FY2023: 15.1% 

- FY2024: 27.7% 

- FY2025: 33.7% 

- FY2026: 32.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in solar; annual sales are USD 3.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852131/000185213126000017/nxt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-19); FY2026: revenue 3559390000; grossProfit 1160095000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NXT.US: Nextpower Inc. provides solar and energy technology solutions for utility-scale power plants in the United States and internationally. It offers tracking solutions, including NX Horizon, a solar tracking solution; NX Horizon-XTR, a terrain-following tracker to expand the addressable market for trackers on sites with sloped, uneven, and challenging terrain; NX Horizon Hail Pro adds automatic stowing using weather service information; and NX Horizon Low Carbon, a solar tracker solution with a reduced carbon footprint. The company also provides TrueCapture, an energy yield management system that addresses power production shortfalls; NX Anchor and NX Earth Truss, a solar foundation technology to facilitate solar project development in challenging soil conditions; Truss Driver, an advanced installation equipment; and NX Navigator, which assists solar power plant owners and operators in monitoring, controlling, and protecting their solar projects. It serves engineering, procurement, and construction firms, as well as solar project developers and owners. The company was formerly known as Nextracker Inc. and changed its name to Nextpower Inc. in November 2025. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.7% to 33.7% during 2024–26; it earns 84.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852131/000185213126000017/nxt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-19); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 32.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.009504090812273689],[2020,0.5000209037013076],[2021,25.961083840372325],[2022,0.2437812787100337],[2023,1.000001],[2024,1.135902201754982],[2025,0.9714654134373033],[2026,0.7123994537822282]]; median 0.8419324336097658. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 21.8% of cash earnings; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 4524000; owner earnings 12386000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1655000; owner earnings 134301000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2963000; owner earnings 138194000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5917000; owner earnings 56196000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3183000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 120300909.99151097. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2024: growth capex 2297000; upkeep 4363000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 306241000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.007500628589901417.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); FY2025: growth capex 5512557.062065445; upkeep 28408442.937934555; cash acquisitions 144675000; owner earnings 494166557.0620654. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3039209248698764.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852131/000185213126000017/nxt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-19); FY2026: growth capex 9339997.193540603; upkeep 35472002.8064594; cash acquisitions 117162000; owner earnings 581012997.1935406. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2177266219595457.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); Incremental return on capital 15.723907527440948, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); Dividend observations: [[2019,0],[2020,331396000],[2021,331396000],[2022,19924000],[2023,170000000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852131/000185213126000017/nxt-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-19); FY2026: cash repurchases 395000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NXT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.641 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1359101543865585. Price 83.45; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2023-02: $30.44 per share

- 2023-03: $36.26 per share

- 2023-04: $31.49 per share

- 2023-05: $38.25 per share

- 2023-06: $39.81 per share

- 2023-07: $42.35 per share

- 2023-08: $42.12 per share

- 2023-09: $40.16 per share

- 2023-10: $34.76 per share

- 2023-11: $40.64 per share

- 2023-12: $46.85 per share

- 2024-01: $45.27 per share

- 2024-02: $56.24 per share

- 2024-03: $56.27 per share

- 2024-04: $42.79 per share

- 2024-05: $55.17 per share

- 2024-06: $46.88 per share

- 2024-07: $49.14 per share

- 2024-08: $40.67 per share

- 2024-09: $37.48 per share

- 2024-10: $39.82 per share

- 2024-11: $38.16 per share

- 2024-12: $36.53 per share

- 2025-01: $50.42 per share

- 2025-02: $44.02 per share

- 2025-03: $42.14 per share

- 2025-04: $40.61 per share

- 2025-05: $56.69 per share

- 2025-06: $54.37 per share

- 2025-07: $58.26 per share

- 2025-08: $67.26 per share

- 2025-09: $73.99 per share

- 2025-10: $101.22 per share

- 2025-11: $91.62 per share

- 2025-12: $87.11 per share

- 2026-01: $117.09 per share

- 2026-02: $105.10 per share

- 2026-03: $120.55 per share

- 2026-04: $119.13 per share

- 2026-05: $156.40 per share

- 2026-06: $119.14 per share

- 2026-07: $89.87 per share

- 2026-08: $82.03 per share

- 2026-09: $77.93 per share

- 2026-10: $83.45 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $9.63 per share, central $10.88 per share, high $12.53 per share

- FY2024: low $24.15 per share, central $27.08 per share, high $30.99 per share

- FY2025: low $29.78 per share, central $33.23 per share, high $37.83 per share

- FY2026: low $37.91 per share, central $42.22 per share, high $47.95 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852131/000185213126000017/nxt-20260331.htm); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.