# Next (NXT.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NXT.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:36.834Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 15,205.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 8,504.41 per share, central GBX 10,690.07 per share, high GBX 12,490.22 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 10,690.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:36.834Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.20×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.18×

- FY2026: 0.19×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 26.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 44.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 48.6%

- FY2018: 42.0%

- FY2019: 24.3%

- FY2020: 24.9%

- FY2021: 15.3%

- FY2022: 28.6%

- FY2023: 26.4%

- FY2024: 25.7%

- FY2025: 26.2%

- FY2026: 30.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.84×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 3.2B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 3.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 78.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 32.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.69×

- FY2023: 0.71×

- FY2024: 0.81×

- FY2025: 0.93×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 42.0% vs 26.2%

- Per-share earnings: 4.38 to 6.55 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Market cap gain: GBP 10.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 1.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 5.2%

- Per-share value change: GBP 2.17

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 4.38

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 6.55

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.56

- Average buyback yield: 2.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 714M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 6.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 42.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 4.38

- FY2018: GBP 4.16

- FY2019: GBP 4.33

- FY2020: GBP 4.69

- FY2021: GBP 2.22

- FY2022: GBP 5.48

- FY2023: GBP 5.81

- FY2024: GBP 6.55

- FY2025: GBP 6.16

- FY2026: GBP 7.60

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.28×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -0.9%

- FY2019: -7.4%

- FY2020: -8.6%

- FY2021: -14.3%

- FY2022: -7.4%

- FY2023: -2.2%

- FY2024: -6.7%

- FY2025: -8.2%

- FY2026: -5.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.2% a year for ten years · sales +12.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.577Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-29: Next PLC Lifts Outlook After Quarterly Sales Beat Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f1ed6db0-fdb0-3c79-9fb6-6068b6109cb4/next-plc-lifts-outlook-after.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31/reports/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-21.

- FY2017: GBP 4.1B 

- FY2018: GBP 4.1B 

- FY2019: GBP 4.2B 

- FY2020: GBP 4.3B 

- FY2021: GBP 3.5B 

- FY2022: GBP 4.6B 

- FY2023: GBP 5.0B 

- FY2024: GBP 5.5B 

- FY2025: GBP 6.1B 

- FY2026: GBP 6.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 44.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31/reports/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-21.

- FY2017: 33.8% 

- FY2018: 34.8% 

- FY2019: 38.5% 

- FY2020: 39.4% 

- FY2021: 35.1% 

- FY2022: 42.9% 

- FY2023: 43.8% 

- FY2024: 44.1% 

- FY2025: 43.2% 

- FY2026: 44.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in apparel retail; annual sales are GBP 6.9 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31/reports/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-21); FY2026: revenue 6901300000; grossProfit 3053800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NXT.LSE: NEXT plc engages in the retail of clothing, homeware, and beauty products in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Retail Stores, Online (UK), Online (International), NEXT Finance, Total Platform, and Other Business Activities segments. The company offers NEXT branded products; and women's, men's, children's fashion clothing, and accessories; and third-party branded products. It also provides consumer credit; services to third-party brands, including websites, marketing, warehousing, distribution networks, and contact centers; and property management, which holds and leases properties. The company operates through retail stores, online retail platforms, and franchise stores. The company was formerly known as J Hepworth & Son and changed its name to NEXT plc in 1986. NEXT plc was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Enderby, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.2% to 44.2% during 2024–26; it earns 26.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.2%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31/reports/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-21); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 44.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.48614823837806836],[2018,0.41995242752667494],[2019,0.24348059492936647],[2020,0.2492586844544438],[2021,0.15250639913354586],[2022,0.2862021463659767],[2023,0.2639397264905638],[2024,0.25739384966097456],[2025,0.2623057933958407],[2026,0.30520527703553063]]; median 0.2631227599432022. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 300.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 157000000; owner earnings 593000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 112800000; owner earnings 602000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 123200000; owner earnings 725600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 136400000; owner earnings 483100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 161300000; owner earnings 143820000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2022: growth capex 45600000; upkeep 220700000; owner earnings 466000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09785407725321889.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2023: growth capex 26100000; upkeep 220000000; owner earnings 507040000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.051475228778794575.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 188200000; owner earnings 652560000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 157500000; owner earnings 686720000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31/reports/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-21); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 135400000; owner earnings 887840000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); Dividend observations: [[2017,314100000],[2018,479700000],[2019,215700000],[2020,213600000],[2021,118200000],[2022,344500000],[2023,237400000],[2024,248300000],[2025,257800000],[2026,286500000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31/reports/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-21); FY2026: cash repurchases 300400000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NXT.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.021 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13415357409072287. Price 15205; FX 100; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 4.367835762029048 → FY2026 7.59486740804106. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 4,816.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 4,904.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 4,983.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 3,830.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 3,827.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 4,320.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 4,305.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 4,360.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 3,856.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 3,950.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 4,129.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 5,260.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 4,921.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 4,477.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 4,525.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 5,092.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 4,856.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 4,759.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 5,256.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 5,800.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 6,050.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 5,936.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 5,500.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 5,494.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 5,204.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 4,901.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 3,991.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 4,847.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 5,088.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 5,580.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 5,766.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 5,762.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 5,526.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 6,064.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 5,936.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 6,186.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 6,582.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 6,758.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 7,018.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 6,892.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 6,082.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 4,072.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 4,726.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 4,864.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 4,894.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 5,450.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 6,038.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 5,950.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 5,840.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 6,552.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 7,086.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 7,730.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 7,560.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 7,866.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 7,802.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 8,158.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 7,856.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 7,882.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 7,910.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 8,212.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 7,966.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 7,862.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 8,150.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 7,498.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 6,862.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 6,032.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 6,026.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 6,478.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 5,860.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 6,806.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 5,812.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 4,801.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 4,929.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 5,840.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 5,806.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 6,618.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 6,842.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 6,572.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 6,740.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 6,346.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 6,900.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 7,048.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 6,988.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 7,296.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 6,884.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 7,930.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 8,118.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 8,468.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 8,314.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 9,232.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 9,008.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 9,338.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 9,036.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 9,074.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 10,165.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 9,782.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 9,790.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 10,080.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 9,498.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 9,952.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 10,025.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 11,085.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 12,330.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 12,865.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 12,440.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 12,310.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 11,955.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 12,375.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 14,300.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 14,120.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 13,680.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 13,265.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 13,520.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 12,675.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 12,945.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 13,215.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 14,545.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 14,845.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 15,575.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 14,795.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 14,800.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 6,134.17 per share, central GBX 8,813.66 per share, high GBX 10,353.58 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 5,390.66 per share, central GBX 6,979.52 per share, high GBX 8,160.47 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 5,313.07 per share, central GBX 6,038.24 per share, high GBX 7,003.61 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 6,097.90 per share, central GBX 8,077.18 per share, high GBX 9,454.09 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 4,752.07 per share, central GBX 5,348.73 per share, high GBX 6,143.01 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 5,360.25 per share, central GBX 6,611.96 per share, high GBX 7,665.48 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 4,828.37 per share, central GBX 5,882.36 per share, high GBX 6,855.86 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 5,422.46 per share, central GBX 6,711.54 per share, high GBX 7,819.55 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 6,096.14 per share, central GBX 7,432.57 per share, high GBX 8,653.69 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 8,304.49 per share, central GBX 10,438.78 per share, high GBX 12,196.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31/reports/213800WQD8ECPZP9PH98-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-04-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.