# Blue Owl Capital (OBDC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/OBDC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:49.664Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $10.35 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $5.93 per share, central $6.69 per share, high $7.70 per share. Buy at or below the central value $6.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:49.664Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.45×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.78×

- FY2017: 1.08×

- FY2018: 1.24×

- FY2019: 1.37×

- FY2020: 0.49×

- FY2021: 0.62×

- FY2022: 0.40×

- FY2023: 0.51×

- FY2024: 0.38×

- FY2025: 0.66×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 13.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 13.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 67.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -12.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.0%

- FY2017: 5.3%

- FY2018: 4.8%

- FY2019: 7.2%

- FY2020: 3.6%

- FY2021: 5.0%

- FY2022: 3.6%

- FY2023: 6.3%

- FY2024: 4.6%

- FY2025: 7.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.45×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 52.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 83.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 903.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -2.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -1.96×

- FY2022: 0.47×

- FY2023: 0.65×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 2.78×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.8% vs 6.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.44 to 1.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Per-share value growth: 19.3%

- Per-share value change: $1.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.44

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.53

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.70

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.06

- FY2017: $0.44

- FY2018: $1.10

- FY2019: $1.28

- FY2020: $1.00

- FY2021: $1.59

- FY2022: $1.18

- FY2023: $2.03

- FY2024: $1.53

- FY2025: $1.24

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.73×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.78×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 81.4%

- FY2017: 58.9%

- FY2018: 56.7%

- FY2019: 32.9%

- FY2020: 17.2%

- FY2021: 13.9%

- FY2022: 1.8%

- FY2023: 2.1%

- FY2024: 3.1%

- FY2025: -6.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 39% since May 2024 · "Blue Owl BDC Q2 Key Metrics: Activity subdued as refis 'grind to a halt'" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +15.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:18.487Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-18: Blue Owl sinks as investor withdrawals halted at private credit fund ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4523155-blue-owl-sinks-as-investor-withdrawals-halted-at-private-credit-fund?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-19: Blue Owl Move to Curb Redemptions at Private Credit Fund Hits Alt Manager Stocks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d449e64f-af6a-386d-9288-2c6f31c1a44b/blue-owl-move-to-curb.html))

- 2026-04-30: Blue Owl shares surge after private credit firm cites 10X gains from SpaceX loan ([cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/blue-owl-shares-private-credit-spacex-gains.html))

- 2026-05-07: Blue Owl Capital Q1 Earnings Miss on Lower Net Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/blue-owl-capital-q1-earnings-162000925.html))

- 2026-08-11: Blue Owl Capital Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Lower Interest Expenses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/blue-owl-capital-q2-earnings-142900843.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +15.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655888/000165588826000010/obdc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: $25M 

- FY2017: $117M 

- FY2018: $222M 

- FY2019: $457M 

- FY2020: $803M 

- FY2021: $1.0B 

- FY2022: $1.2B 

- FY2023: $1.6B 

- FY2024: $1.6B 

- FY2025: $1.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 68.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655888/000165588826000010/obdc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2020: 37.7% 

- FY2021: 67.5% 

- FY2022: 44.6% 

- FY2023: 54.6% 

- FY2024: 41.7% 

- FY2025: 68.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655888/000165588826000010/obdc-20251231.htm#000165588826000010 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 1851304000; grossProfit 1264668000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 41.7% to 68.3% during 2023–25; it earns 4.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 54.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 41.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655888/000165588826000010/obdc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 68.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.019656222471362835],[2017,0.05292334000254819],[2018,0.047855247825103066],[2019,0.07153903385704811],[2020,0.0362709897750121],[2021,0.04962713453851829],[2022,0.03638997524868362],[2023,0.06333378306850851],[2024,0.045842542600710974],[2025,0.07195193737971664]]; median 0.04874119118181068. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 148.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 217268000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 514374000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 160215000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655888/000165588826000010/obdc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 1741520000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,1645200],[2017,28074000],[2018,90035000],[2019,221107000],[2020,453497000],[2021,460854000],[2022,488422000],[2023,613374000],[2024,655558000],[2025,752524000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655888/000165588826000010/obdc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 148200000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); OBDC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.27299999999999996 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08251262298935125. Price 10.35; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-07: $15.85 per share

- 2019-08: $15.90 per share

- 2019-09: $15.77 per share

- 2019-10: $17.10 per share

- 2019-11: $18.11 per share

- 2019-12: $17.89 per share

- 2020-01: $15.76 per share

- 2020-02: $15.23 per share

- 2020-03: $11.54 per share

- 2020-04: $12.90 per share

- 2020-05: $12.34 per share

- 2020-06: $12.33 per share

- 2020-07: $12.25 per share

- 2020-08: $12.34 per share

- 2020-09: $12.06 per share

- 2020-10: $11.38 per share

- 2020-11: $13.52 per share

- 2020-12: $12.66 per share

- 2021-01: $12.90 per share

- 2021-02: $13.98 per share

- 2021-03: $13.77 per share

- 2021-04: $14.45 per share

- 2021-05: $14.40 per share

- 2021-06: $14.27 per share

- 2021-07: $14.39 per share

- 2021-08: $14.60 per share

- 2021-09: $14.12 per share

- 2021-10: $14.38 per share

- 2021-11: $13.94 per share

- 2021-12: $14.16 per share

- 2022-01: $14.68 per share

- 2022-02: $15.05 per share

- 2022-03: $14.78 per share

- 2022-04: $14.31 per share

- 2022-05: $13.56 per share

- 2022-06: $12.33 per share

- 2022-07: $12.89 per share

- 2022-08: $13.14 per share

- 2022-09: $10.37 per share

- 2022-10: $11.87 per share

- 2022-11: $12.91 per share

- 2022-12: $11.55 per share

- 2023-01: $13.07 per share

- 2023-02: $13.70 per share

- 2023-03: $12.61 per share

- 2023-04: $12.98 per share

- 2023-05: $13.43 per share

- 2023-06: $13.42 per share

- 2023-07: $14.16 per share

- 2023-08: $13.92 per share

- 2023-09: $13.85 per share

- 2023-10: $13.24 per share

- 2023-11: $14.66 per share

- 2023-12: $14.76 per share

- 2024-01: $14.82 per share

- 2024-02: $15.08 per share

- 2024-03: $15.38 per share

- 2024-04: $15.90 per share

- 2024-05: $16.86 per share

- 2024-06: $15.36 per share

- 2024-07: $15.52 per share

- 2024-08: $15.16 per share

- 2024-09: $14.57 per share

- 2024-10: $15.04 per share

- 2024-11: $15.22 per share

- 2024-12: $15.12 per share

- 2025-01: $15.11 per share

- 2025-02: $15.46 per share

- 2025-03: $14.66 per share

- 2025-04: $14.01 per share

- 2025-05: $14.65 per share

- 2025-06: $14.34 per share

- 2025-07: $14.28 per share

- 2025-08: $14.34 per share

- 2025-09: $12.77 per share

- 2025-10: $13.02 per share

- 2025-11: $13.17 per share

- 2025-12: $12.43 per share

- 2026-01: $12.00 per share

- 2026-02: $11.29 per share

- 2026-03: $11.06 per share

- 2026-04: $11.72 per share

- 2026-05: $11.26 per share

- 2026-06: $10.87 per share

- 2026-07: $10.75 per share

- 2026-08: $11.53 per share

- 2026-09: $10.49 per share

- 2026-10: $10.35 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2024: low $5.51 per share, central $6.13 per share, high $6.96 per share

- FY2025: low $7.23 per share, central $8.22 per share, high $9.55 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655888/000165588826000010/obdc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.