# Ora Banda Mining (OBM.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/OBM.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 1.32 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 0.73 per share, central AUD 0.99 per share, high AUD 1.14 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 0.99 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 6

- Operating margin variation: 2.99×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3,545.80×

- FY2018: -5.20×

- FY2019: -3.17×

- FY2020: -0.55×

- FY2021: -0.85×

- FY2022: -0.14×

- FY2023: -0.35×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.28×

- FY2026: 0.40×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -22.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -92.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -51.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): -13.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 30.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -17.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -53.6%

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: -92.4%

- FY2020: -28.8%

- FY2021: -16.1%

- FY2022: -53.4%

- FY2023: -97.2%

- FY2024: 3.8%

- FY2025: 30.8%

- FY2026: 76.2%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 281M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 298M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 79.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 18528.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 113245.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 0.80×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.97×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -53.6% vs 30.8%

- Per-share earnings: -0.02 to 0.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 6.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 13.8%

- Market cap gain: AUD 2.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 206M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 6.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 13.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.11

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.02

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.09

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.64

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 173M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -53.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 30.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD -0.02

- FY2018: AUD -0.08

- FY2019: AUD 0.01

- FY2020: AUD -0.01

- FY2021: AUD -0.02

- FY2022: AUD -0.06

- FY2023: AUD -0.02

- FY2024: AUD 0.01

- FY2025: AUD 0.09

- FY2026: AUD 0.11

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -23.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 3.83×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.97×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.8%

- FY2018: -132.3%

- FY2019: 62.8%

- FY2020: 5.4%

- FY2021: -6.4%

- FY2022: -111.9%

- FY2023: -18.0%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -1.0%

- FY2026: -23.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.6% a year for ten years · sales +104.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.816Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.6% a year for ten years

- 2026-02-26: Ora Banda posts record $336.3m half-year revenue as EBITDA more than doubles ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ora-banda-posts-record-336-232000851.html))

- 2026-04-16: Ora Banda posts record production and cash flow as Davyhurst gains momentum ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/ora-banda-posts-record-production-013200553.html))

- 2026-07-15: Ora Banda delivers record gold quarter as ‘DRIVE to 300’ expansion gathers momentum ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/ora-banda-delivers-record-gold-231600510.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +104.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 5K 

- FY2018: AUD 16M 

- FY2019: AUD 6.4M 

- FY2020: AUD 25M 

- FY2021: AUD 25M 

- FY2022: AUD 154M 

- FY2023: AUD 136M 

- FY2024: AUD 214M 

- FY2025: AUD 404M 

- FY2026: AUD 826M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 44.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2024: 10.5% 

- FY2025: 37.8% 

- FY2026: 44.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are AUD 826.1 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); FY2026: revenue 826103000; grossProfit 364744000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.5% to 44.2% during 2024–26; it lost 22.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 44.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.5359882897707704],[2018,0],[2019,-0.92425417064476],[2020,-0.2880830206626856],[2021,-0.1606261846930514],[2022,-0.534142584341184],[2023,-0.9717900668326562],[2024,0.03809834767982586],[2025,0.3077148510107477],[2026,0.7619711083630947]]; median -0.2243546026778685. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 46.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 79.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1565000; owner earnings 8577000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); FY2024: growth capex 45696000; upkeep 23395000; owner earnings 22148600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.063155233287883.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); FY2025: growth capex 44010000; upkeep 69982000; owner earnings 186080000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23651117798796217.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); FY2026: growth capex 97142000; upkeep 116663000; owner earnings 209840600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4629323400714638.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); Incremental return on capital 0.7958292989680821, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,32094000],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,16619000],[2021,64267000],[2022,5054000],[2023,10748000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 25.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); OBM.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 25.495 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:10.670Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14022276446738402. Price 1.32; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.01704859169602606 → FY2026 0.10235205660758825. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 0.15 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 0.11 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 0.14 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 0.19 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 0.18 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 0.19 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 0.15 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 0.17 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 0.18 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 0.14 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 0.07 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 0.07 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 0.15 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 0.16 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 0.18 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 0.16 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 0.16 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 0.15 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 0.17 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 0.17 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 0.15 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 0.10 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 0.18 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 0.25 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 0.25 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 0.32 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 0.31 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 0.34 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 0.28 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 0.27 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 0.28 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 0.28 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 0.22 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 0.22 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 0.21 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 0.19 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 0.14 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 0.09 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 0.09 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 0.08 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 0.07 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 0.05 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 0.05 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 0.05 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 0.04 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 0.04 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 0.03 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 0.06 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 0.08 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 0.08 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 0.08 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 0.09 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 0.10 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 0.12 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 0.15 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 0.14 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 0.13 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 0.11 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 0.10 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 0.11 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 0.16 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 0.24 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 0.24 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 0.22 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 0.26 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 0.28 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 0.34 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 0.33 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 0.34 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 0.44 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 0.58 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 0.63 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 0.94 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 0.73 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 0.65 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 0.83 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 0.93 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 1.09 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 1.00 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 1.15 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 0.77 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 0.65 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 0.85 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 1.18 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 1.21 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 1.33 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 1.53 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 1.28 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 1.29 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 1.17 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 1.32 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 1.37 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 1.06 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 1.14 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 1.53 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 1.49 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 1.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2026: low AUD 0.69 per share, central AUD 0.93 per share, high AUD 1.07 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:47:00.623Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.