# Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ODFL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:50.880Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $188.88 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $52.97 per share, central $60.16 per share, high $69.73 per share. Buy at or below the central value $60.16 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:50.880Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.2% at the stated quote. About 5.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.16×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.23×

- FY2021: 0.26×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.26×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 24.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 20.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 32.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 21.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 16.3%

- FY2017: 20.8%

- FY2018: 24.1%

- FY2019: 22.6%

- FY2020: 24.9%

- FY2021: 29.1%

- FY2022: 39.1%

- FY2023: 31.6%

- FY2024: 27.3%

- FY2025: 23.6%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.84×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 22.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 10.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.65×

- FY2024: 0.64×

- FY2025: 0.95×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.8% vs 27.3%

- Per-share earnings: 1.78 to 5.48 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Market cap gain: $28B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 15.1%

- Per-share value change: $3.69

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.78

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.48

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.03

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 27.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.78

- FY2017: $2.81

- FY2018: $2.46

- FY2019: $2.55

- FY2020: $2.84

- FY2021: $4.44

- FY2022: $6.09

- FY2023: $5.63

- FY2024: $5.48

- FY2025: $4.84

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.34×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.0%

- FY2017: -2.4%

- FY2018: -8.3%

- FY2019: -7.9%

- FY2020: -5.4%

- FY2021: -3.7%

- FY2022: -6.5%

- FY2023: -6.0%

- FY2024: -8.6%

- FY2025: -6.2%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.5% a year for ten years · "ODFL Suffering From Weak Revenues Despite Dividend Strength" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales +1.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:18.798Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: ODFL Q1 Earnings Call: Management Focuses on Cost Discipline Amid Freight Demand Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/odfl-q1-earnings-call-management-210522377.html))

- 2025-07-30: Earnings call transcript: Old Dominion Q2 2025 misses forecasts, stock drops ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-old-dominion-q2-2025-misses-forecasts-stock-drops-93CH-4160810))

- 2025-09-11: Old Dominion Faces Analyst Split After Earnings Miss and August LTL Decline ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/old-dominion-faces-analyst-split-153647897.html))

- 2025-12-03: Old Dominion again sees yields improve as volumes sag ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/old-dominion-again-sees-yields-151617046.html))

- 2026-02-04: Old Dominion Beats on Q4 Earnings and Revenues, Hikes Dividend ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/old-dominion-beats-q4-earnings-155500911.html))

- 2026-04-09: Old Dominion Freight Line Pricing Strength Draws Fresh Analyst Attention ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/old-dominion-freight-line-pricing-101028372.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000119312526067161/odfl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $3.4B 

- FY2018: $4.0B 

- FY2019: $4.1B 

- FY2020: $4.0B 

- FY2021: $5.3B 

- FY2022: $6.3B 

- FY2023: $5.9B 

- FY2024: $5.8B 

- FY2025: $5.5B 

- FY2026: $5.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000119312526067161/odfl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 24.9% 

- FY2017: 26.1% 

- FY2018: 28.3% 

- FY2019: 28.5% 

- FY2020: 30.6% 

- FY2021: 33.8% 

- FY2022: 36.0% 

- FY2023: 35.3% 

- FY2024: 34.8% 

- FY2025: 32.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in trucking; annual sales are USD 5.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000119312526067161/odfl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 5496389000; grossProfit 1767304000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ODFL.US: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. The company offers regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services, as well as expedited transportation services. It also provides various value-added services, including container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. In addition, the company operates fleet maintenance centers. As of December 31, 2025, it owned and operated 10,184 tractors, 30,824 linehaul trailers, and 14,313 pickup and delivery trailers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32.2% to 35.3% during 2023–25; it earns 24.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 35.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000119312526067161/odfl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.16324573747507784],[2017,0.20846395165756756],[2018,0.24120566097516277],[2019,0.2262941307624839],[2020,0.24862044570777217],[2021,0.29088609640867286],[2022,0.39139590073625957],[2023,0.31612766580091795],[2024,0.2731559775805881],[2025,0.23624652334350923]]; median 0.24491305334146746. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back USD 730.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 12824279.5799281; upkeep 405116720.4200719; owner earnings 80515279.5799281. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15927758863704056.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 176362000; upkeep 205763000; owner earnings 463774000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3802757377515773.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 357935000; upkeep 230357000; owner earnings 605668000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5909755839833044.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 46442713.32272422; upkeep 432882286.6772758; owner earnings 436316713.3227242. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10644266402046487.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 225081000; owner earnings 708868000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 290178000; upkeep 259899000; owner earnings 1034375000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28053462235649546.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 499082000; upkeep 276066000; owner earnings 1377159000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3623996938625097.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 757309000; owner earnings 806642000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 771318000; owner earnings 759333000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000119312526067161/odfl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 415034000; owner earnings 973355000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,32925000],[2018,42566000],[2019,71023000],[2020,92366000],[2021,134484000],[2022,134484000],[2023,175089000],[2024,223618000],[2025,235641000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000119312526067161/odfl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 730338000 USD.

### What could break it

"Insurance and claims expenses could significantly reduce our profitability." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000119312526067161/odfl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Insurance and claims expenses could significantly reduce our profitability.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 20.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2114325779016909. Price 188.88; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.73929141562999 → FY2025 4.600019848958875. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $29.10 per share

- 2016-12: $28.60 per share

- 2017-01: $29.43 per share

- 2017-02: $30.59 per share

- 2017-03: $28.52 per share

- 2017-04: $29.51 per share

- 2017-05: $29.77 per share

- 2017-06: $31.75 per share

- 2017-07: $31.97 per share

- 2017-08: $33.30 per share

- 2017-09: $36.70 per share

- 2017-10: $40.38 per share

- 2017-11: $43.08 per share

- 2017-12: $43.85 per share

- 2018-01: $48.82 per share

- 2018-02: $46.31 per share

- 2018-03: $48.99 per share

- 2018-04: $44.62 per share

- 2018-05: $51.99 per share

- 2018-06: $49.65 per share

- 2018-07: $48.93 per share

- 2018-08: $50.80 per share

- 2018-09: $53.75 per share

- 2018-10: $43.47 per share

- 2018-11: $45.58 per share

- 2018-12: $41.16 per share

- 2019-01: $45.31 per share

- 2019-02: $50.26 per share

- 2019-03: $48.13 per share

- 2019-04: $49.76 per share

- 2019-05: $44.15 per share

- 2019-06: $49.75 per share

- 2019-07: $55.66 per share

- 2019-08: $54.59 per share

- 2019-09: $56.66 per share

- 2019-10: $60.69 per share

- 2019-11: $63.86 per share

- 2019-12: $63.26 per share

- 2020-01: $65.41 per share

- 2020-02: $64.60 per share

- 2020-03: $65.63 per share

- 2020-04: $72.64 per share

- 2020-05: $85.54 per share

- 2020-06: $84.79 per share

- 2020-07: $91.41 per share

- 2020-08: $101.09 per share

- 2020-09: $90.46 per share

- 2020-10: $95.18 per share

- 2020-11: $101.68 per share

- 2020-12: $97.59 per share

- 2021-01: $97.00 per share

- 2021-02: $107.39 per share

- 2021-03: $120.21 per share

- 2021-04: $128.90 per share

- 2021-05: $132.73 per share

- 2021-06: $126.90 per share

- 2021-07: $134.57 per share

- 2021-08: $144.36 per share

- 2021-09: $142.99 per share

- 2021-10: $170.68 per share

- 2021-11: $177.59 per share

- 2021-12: $179.19 per share

- 2022-01: $150.96 per share

- 2022-02: $157.01 per share

- 2022-03: $149.34 per share

- 2022-04: $140.06 per share

- 2022-05: $129.12 per share

- 2022-06: $128.14 per share

- 2022-07: $151.76 per share

- 2022-08: $135.71 per share

- 2022-09: $124.39 per share

- 2022-10: $137.30 per share

- 2022-11: $151.30 per share

- 2022-12: $141.89 per share

- 2023-01: $166.62 per share

- 2023-02: $169.63 per share

- 2023-03: $170.42 per share

- 2023-04: $160.20 per share

- 2023-05: $155.22 per share

- 2023-06: $184.88 per share

- 2023-07: $209.74 per share

- 2023-08: $213.68 per share

- 2023-09: $204.57 per share

- 2023-10: $188.33 per share

- 2023-11: $194.53 per share

- 2023-12: $202.66 per share

- 2024-01: $195.51 per share

- 2024-02: $221.24 per share

- 2024-03: $219.31 per share

- 2024-04: $181.71 per share

- 2024-05: $175.25 per share

- 2024-06: $176.60 per share

- 2024-07: $210.18 per share

- 2024-08: $192.80 per share

- 2024-09: $198.64 per share

- 2024-10: $201.32 per share

- 2024-11: $225.14 per share

- 2024-12: $176.40 per share

- 2025-01: $185.61 per share

- 2025-02: $176.50 per share

- 2025-03: $165.45 per share

- 2025-04: $153.28 per share

- 2025-05: $160.17 per share

- 2025-06: $162.30 per share

- 2025-07: $149.25 per share

- 2025-08: $150.97 per share

- 2025-09: $140.78 per share

- 2025-10: $140.42 per share

- 2025-11: $135.29 per share

- 2025-12: $156.80 per share

- 2026-01: $173.20 per share

- 2026-02: $203.05 per share

- 2026-03: $195.40 per share

- 2026-04: $212.43 per share

- 2026-05: $225.15 per share

- 2026-06: $216.60 per share

- 2026-07: $212.14 per share

- 2026-08: $199.96 per share

- 2026-09: $173.84 per share

- 2026-10: $183.17 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $10.39 per share, central $14.84 per share, high $17.43 per share

- FY2017: low $20.72 per share, central $29.44 per share, high $34.52 per share

- FY2018: low $21.88 per share, central $31.07 per share, high $36.42 per share

- FY2019: low $25.92 per share, central $36.46 per share, high $42.60 per share

- FY2020: low $33.39 per share, central $44.99 per share, high $52.29 per share

- FY2021: low $45.68 per share, central $63.79 per share, high $74.77 per share

- FY2022: low $66.93 per share, central $95.40 per share, high $111.98 per share

- FY2023: low $58.23 per share, central $70.15 per share, high $81.59 per share

- FY2024: low $54.07 per share, central $61.63 per share, high $71.70 per share

- FY2025: low $50.33 per share, central $57.26 per share, high $66.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:34.979Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000119312526067161/odfl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.