# One Gas (OGS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/OGS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:51.379Z. Financial observations: FY2010–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $74.56 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $34.58 per share, central $39.35 per share, high $45.69 per share. Buy at or below the central value $39.35 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:51.379Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.21×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 26.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.2%

- FY2018: 6.4%

- FY2019: 6.4%

- FY2020: 6.2%

- FY2021: 4.1%

- FY2022: 5.1%

- FY2023: 5.7%

- FY2024: 5.5%

- FY2025: 5.7%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 5.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.31×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $353M

- Net income, five-year total: $1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 6.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.67×

- FY2024: -0.82×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.2% vs 5.7%

- Per-share earnings: 2.65 to 4.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Market cap gain: $1.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $748M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.8%

- Per-share value change: $1.49

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $324M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.65

- FY2017: $3.08

- FY2018: $3.25

- FY2019: $3.51

- FY2020: $3.68

- FY2021: $3.85

- FY2022: $4.08

- FY2023: $4.14

- FY2024: $3.91

- FY2025: $4.37

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.19×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.9%

- FY2017: -1.7%

- FY2018: -5.4%

- FY2019: -2.2%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: 20.7%

- FY2022: -17.3%

- FY2023: -9.1%

- FY2024: -1.7%

- FY2025: -3.4%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.9% a year for ten years · sales -4.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:18.960Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-06: ONE Gas Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y, EPS View Up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-gas-q2-earnings-meet-135300750.html))

- 2025-11-04: Stronger Q3 and Raised Guidance Could Be a Game Changer for ONE Gas (OGS) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stronger-q3-raised-guidance-could-142055494.html))

- 2026-08-25: Improved Infrastructure-Driven Earnings Outlook Might Change The Case For Investing In ONE Gas (OGS) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/improved-infrastructure-driven-earnings-outlook-090540285.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587732/000158773226000009/ogs-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $1.5B 

- FY2018: $1.6B 

- FY2019: $1.7B 

- FY2020: $1.5B 

- FY2021: $1.8B 

- FY2022: $2.6B 

- FY2023: $2.4B 

- FY2024: $2.1B 

- FY2025: $2.4B 

- FY2026: $2.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 58.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587732/000158773226000009/ogs-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 34.2% 

- FY2017: 34.2% 

- FY2018: 31.1% 

- FY2019: 32.4% 

- FY2020: 36.7% 

- FY2021: 32.3% 

- FY2022: 25.1% 

- FY2023: 30.7% 

- FY2024: 37.2% 

- FY2025: 58.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated gas; annual sales are USD 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587732/000158773226000009/ogs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 2427428000; grossProfit 1428515000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); OGS.US: ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company offers natural gas distribution services. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 43,200 miles of distribution pipelines and 2,200 miles of transmission pipelines. The company serves approximately 2.3 million residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and wholesale customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.7% to 58.8% during 2023–25; it earns 5.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 30.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587732/000158773226000009/ogs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 58.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06151600151582792],[2017,0.06166979449213151],[2018,0.06380992302228185],[2019,0.06393570925713334],[2020,0.06157525347120941],[2021,0.040811519945793816],[2022,0.05118576245102564],[2023,0.05698747767857043],[2024,0.05517284657033024],[2025,0.056609995885142046]]; median 0.05925173959719918. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 6.9% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 204472000; upkeep 151889000; owner earnings 162995000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2544679284640634.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 224320762.0390887; upkeep 170129237.9609113; owner earnings 162190762.0390887. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3830674399632354.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 288013000; upkeep 207233000; owner earnings 206434000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3951819952139668.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 381007000; upkeep 228479000; owner earnings 221742000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.718244626638165.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587732/000158773226000009/ogs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 389970000; upkeep 317256000; owner earnings 264224000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4759068063461305.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Incremental return on capital 0.06859668789982837, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,73209000],[2017,87951000],[2018,96594000],[2019,105424000],[2020,114372000],[2021,123912000],[2022,133954000],[2023,144094000],[2024,149456000],[2025,160705000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); OGS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.08 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11531778158874195. Price 74.56; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.7936868592030646 → FY2025 4.366400608133789. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $61.28 per share

- 2016-11: $60.01 per share

- 2016-12: $63.96 per share

- 2017-01: $64.62 per share

- 2017-02: $65.55 per share

- 2017-03: $67.60 per share

- 2017-04: $68.83 per share

- 2017-05: $70.65 per share

- 2017-06: $69.81 per share

- 2017-07: $72.78 per share

- 2017-08: $75.24 per share

- 2017-09: $73.64 per share

- 2017-10: $76.98 per share

- 2017-11: $79.25 per share

- 2017-12: $73.26 per share

- 2018-01: $70.83 per share

- 2018-02: $63.59 per share

- 2018-03: $66.02 per share

- 2018-04: $69.72 per share

- 2018-05: $75.05 per share

- 2018-06: $74.74 per share

- 2018-07: $77.04 per share

- 2018-08: $78.53 per share

- 2018-09: $82.28 per share

- 2018-10: $78.91 per share

- 2018-11: $85.09 per share

- 2018-12: $79.60 per share

- 2019-01: $82.15 per share

- 2019-02: $86.45 per share

- 2019-03: $89.03 per share

- 2019-04: $88.52 per share

- 2019-05: $87.56 per share

- 2019-06: $90.30 per share

- 2019-07: $91.18 per share

- 2019-08: $91.61 per share

- 2019-09: $96.11 per share

- 2019-10: $92.84 per share

- 2019-11: $88.87 per share

- 2019-12: $93.57 per share

- 2020-01: $94.50 per share

- 2020-02: $82.14 per share

- 2020-03: $83.62 per share

- 2020-04: $79.71 per share

- 2020-05: $83.97 per share

- 2020-06: $77.05 per share

- 2020-07: $75.70 per share

- 2020-08: $74.12 per share

- 2020-09: $69.01 per share

- 2020-10: $69.04 per share

- 2020-11: $79.18 per share

- 2020-12: $76.77 per share

- 2021-01: $73.13 per share

- 2021-02: $66.97 per share

- 2021-03: $76.91 per share

- 2021-04: $80.47 per share

- 2021-05: $74.32 per share

- 2021-06: $74.12 per share

- 2021-07: $73.78 per share

- 2021-08: $71.82 per share

- 2021-09: $63.37 per share

- 2021-10: $67.30 per share

- 2021-11: $64.84 per share

- 2021-12: $77.59 per share

- 2022-01: $77.89 per share

- 2022-02: $83.09 per share

- 2022-03: $88.24 per share

- 2022-04: $84.37 per share

- 2022-05: $87.02 per share

- 2022-06: $81.19 per share

- 2022-07: $84.94 per share

- 2022-08: $78.27 per share

- 2022-09: $70.39 per share

- 2022-10: $77.48 per share

- 2022-11: $86.95 per share

- 2022-12: $75.72 per share

- 2023-01: $82.36 per share

- 2023-02: $80.16 per share

- 2023-03: $79.23 per share

- 2023-04: $76.95 per share

- 2023-05: $80.94 per share

- 2023-06: $76.81 per share

- 2023-07: $79.13 per share

- 2023-08: $72.47 per share

- 2023-09: $68.28 per share

- 2023-10: $60.40 per share

- 2023-11: $57.63 per share

- 2023-12: $63.72 per share

- 2024-01: $61.37 per share

- 2024-02: $59.60 per share

- 2024-03: $64.53 per share

- 2024-04: $64.52 per share

- 2024-05: $61.63 per share

- 2024-06: $63.85 per share

- 2024-07: $69.63 per share

- 2024-08: $68.94 per share

- 2024-09: $74.42 per share

- 2024-10: $71.27 per share

- 2024-11: $77.97 per share

- 2024-12: $69.25 per share

- 2025-01: $70.64 per share

- 2025-02: $75.15 per share

- 2025-03: $75.59 per share

- 2025-04: $78.51 per share

- 2025-05: $74.76 per share

- 2025-06: $71.86 per share

- 2025-07: $72.70 per share

- 2025-08: $76.50 per share

- 2025-09: $80.94 per share

- 2025-10: $80.19 per share

- 2025-11: $83.74 per share

- 2025-12: $77.25 per share

- 2026-01: $79.56 per share

- 2026-02: $87.44 per share

- 2026-03: $86.13 per share

- 2026-04: $89.22 per share

- 2026-05: $77.74 per share

- 2026-06: $77.07 per share

- 2026-07: $77.65 per share

- 2026-08: $79.27 per share

- 2026-09: $71.87 per share

- 2026-10: $74.56 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $18.65 per share, central $21.22 per share, high $24.64 per share

- FY2018: low $20.33 per share, central $23.13 per share, high $26.86 per share

- FY2021: low $37.42 per share, central $43.63 per share, high $50.74 per share

- FY2022: low $52.07 per share, central $69.68 per share, high $81.60 per share

- FY2025: low $37.71 per share, central $42.91 per share, high $49.83 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:35.501Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587732/000158773226000009/ogs-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.