# Olin (OLN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/OLN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:52.992Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $15.55 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $71.65 per share, central $81.48 per share, high $94.56 per share. Buy at or below the central value $81.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:52.992Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 43.4% at the stated quote. About 43.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.72×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: -0.13×

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.01×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 7.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.4%

- FY2017: 7.4%

- FY2018: 13.5%

- FY2019: 3.7%

- FY2020: -14.5%

- FY2021: 37.1%

- FY2022: 36.4%

- FY2023: 0.9%

- FY2024: 6.1%

- FY2025: 2.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.53×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.29×

- FY2022: 1.27×

- FY2023: 1.65×

- FY2024: 3.97×

- FY2025: -5.90×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.4% vs 2.6%

- Per-share earnings: -0.01 to 0.91 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -6.2%

- Market cap gain: -$1.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.92

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.91

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 7.1%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $189M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.02

- FY2017: $3.26

- FY2018: $1.95

- FY2019: -$0.07

- FY2020: -$6.14

- FY2021: $7.96

- FY2022: $8.94

- FY2023: $3.57

- FY2024: $0.91

- FY2025: -$0.37

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -7.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.86×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.87×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.9%

- FY2017: -1.1%

- FY2018: -6.4%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -16.8%

- FY2021: -5.2%

- FY2022: -7.4%

- FY2023: -6.7%

- FY2024: -5.2%

- FY2025: -7.1%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 76% since May 2022 · "Olin Suffers From High Debt Burdens and Dampened Demand" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales +3.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:19.351Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 21.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-28: Olin Q2 2025 slides: EBITDA falls 37% YoY, cost-cutting program accelerates ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/olin-q2-2025-slides-ebitda-falls-37-yoy-costcutting-program-accelerates-93CH-4156068))

- 2025-10-29: Olin Corp. (OLN) Falls 12.4% on Lower PT, Lower EBITDA Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/olin-corp-oln-falls-12-142835605.html))

- 2025-12-31: Olin Suffers From High Debt Burdens and Dampened Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/olin-suffers-high-debt-burdens-133200994.html))

- 2026-01-09: Olin Revises Q4 2025 EBITDA Outlook Citing Segment Shortfall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/olin-revises-q4-2025-ebitda-145700610.html))

- 2026-05-08: Olin expects $160M-$200M Q2 adjusted EBITDA as CAPV pricing improves despite Freeport vinyls outage ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4590051-olin-expects-160m-200m-q2-adjusted-ebitda-as-capv-pricing-improves-despite-freeport-vinyls?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/74303/000007430326000027/oln-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: $5.6B 

- FY2017: $6.3B 

- FY2018: $6.9B 

- FY2019: $6.1B 

- FY2020: $5.8B 

- FY2021: $8.9B 

- FY2022: $9.4B 

- FY2023: $6.8B 

- FY2024: $6.5B 

- FY2025: $6.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 7.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/74303/000007430326000027/oln-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: 10.9% 

- FY2017: 12.2% 

- FY2018: 14.6% 

- FY2019: 10.9% 

- FY2020: 6.7% 

- FY2021: 25.7% 

- FY2022: 23.3% 

- FY2024: 11.3% 

- FY2025: 7.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in chemicals; annual sales are USD 6.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/74303/000007430326000027/oln-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 6780800000; grossProfit 501500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); OLN.US: Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and India Middle East, Africa, India, Latin America, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls; Epoxy; and Winchester. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment offers chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, perchloroethylene, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, bleach products, potassium hydroxide, and chlorinated organics intermediates and solvents. The Epoxy segment provides Allylics, such as allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, and glycerin; aromatics, including acetone, and phenol; bisphenol, caustic soda, cumene, liquid and solid epoxy resins; and converted epoxy resins and additives. The Winchester segment offers sporting ammunition products, including shotshells, small caliber centerfire, and rimfire ammunition products for hunters, competitive, and recreational shooters, and law enforcement agencies; small caliber military ammunition products for use in infantry and mounted weapons; and industrial products comprising 8-gauge loads and powder-actuated tool loads for maintenance applications in power and concrete industries, and powder-actuated tools in construction industry. The company markets its products through its sales force, as well as directly to various industrial customers, mass merchants, retailers, wholesalers, gun clubs, other distributors, and the U.S. Government and its prime contractors. Olin Corporation was incorporated in 1892 and is based in Clayton, Missouri.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 7.4% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 4.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/74303/000007430326000027/oln-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 7.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.023734567041052368],[2017,0.07364735678990887],[2018,0.13484203579311968],[2019,0.03695979370592569],[2020,-0.14490125276344878],[2021,0.3705488639852859],[2022,0.3635918537117357],[2023,0.009471060967779022],[2024,0.06147201469870755],[2025,0.026432962875384252]]; median 0.04921590420231662. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 22.1% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 278000000; cash acquisitions 69500000; owner earnings 251600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2762321144674086.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 294300000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 814100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 385200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 544100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 385600000; owner earnings 200500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 200600000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1678600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 236900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1688800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 236000000; cash acquisitions 63900000; owner earnings 757600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08434530095036959.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 195100000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 431600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/74303/000007430326000027/oln-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 226300000; cash acquisitions 55800000; owner earnings 252500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.220990099009901.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,132100000],[2017,133000000],[2018,133600000],[2019,129300000],[2020,126300000],[2021,127800000],[2022,116200000],[2023,101000000],[2024,94200000],[2025,91600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/74303/000007430326000027/oln-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 50500000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); OLN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.38 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 21.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.30257257696003925. Price 15.55; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.9342359767891683 → FY2025 2.2033158813263527. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $21.93 per share

- 2016-11: $26.00 per share

- 2016-12: $25.61 per share

- 2017-01: $26.21 per share

- 2017-02: $31.08 per share

- 2017-03: $32.87 per share

- 2017-04: $32.13 per share

- 2017-05: $29.34 per share

- 2017-06: $30.28 per share

- 2017-07: $29.48 per share

- 2017-08: $32.23 per share

- 2017-09: $34.25 per share

- 2017-10: $36.53 per share

- 2017-11: $35.64 per share

- 2017-12: $35.58 per share

- 2018-01: $37.28 per share

- 2018-02: $32.50 per share

- 2018-03: $30.39 per share

- 2018-04: $30.19 per share

- 2018-05: $32.33 per share

- 2018-06: $28.72 per share

- 2018-07: $29.51 per share

- 2018-08: $30.73 per share

- 2018-09: $25.68 per share

- 2018-10: $20.20 per share

- 2018-11: $21.53 per share

- 2018-12: $20.11 per share

- 2019-01: $23.61 per share

- 2019-02: $25.86 per share

- 2019-03: $23.14 per share

- 2019-04: $21.69 per share

- 2019-05: $19.61 per share

- 2019-06: $21.91 per share

- 2019-07: $20.07 per share

- 2019-08: $16.98 per share

- 2019-09: $18.72 per share

- 2019-10: $18.34 per share

- 2019-11: $17.52 per share

- 2019-12: $17.25 per share

- 2020-01: $14.87 per share

- 2020-02: $16.19 per share

- 2020-03: $11.67 per share

- 2020-04: $13.35 per share

- 2020-05: $12.03 per share

- 2020-06: $11.49 per share

- 2020-07: $11.24 per share

- 2020-08: $11.25 per share

- 2020-09: $12.38 per share

- 2020-10: $16.55 per share

- 2020-11: $21.89 per share

- 2020-12: $24.56 per share

- 2021-01: $23.91 per share

- 2021-02: $30.94 per share

- 2021-03: $37.97 per share

- 2021-04: $43.03 per share

- 2021-05: $48.89 per share

- 2021-06: $46.26 per share

- 2021-07: $47.03 per share

- 2021-08: $49.84 per share

- 2021-09: $48.25 per share

- 2021-10: $56.98 per share

- 2021-11: $54.35 per share

- 2021-12: $57.52 per share

- 2022-01: $50.67 per share

- 2022-02: $51.51 per share

- 2022-03: $52.28 per share

- 2022-04: $57.40 per share

- 2022-05: $65.79 per share

- 2022-06: $46.28 per share

- 2022-07: $52.27 per share

- 2022-08: $54.66 per share

- 2022-09: $42.88 per share

- 2022-10: $52.95 per share

- 2022-11: $56.98 per share

- 2022-12: $52.94 per share

- 2023-01: $64.59 per share

- 2023-02: $57.75 per share

- 2023-03: $55.50 per share

- 2023-04: $55.40 per share

- 2023-05: $47.31 per share

- 2023-06: $51.39 per share

- 2023-07: $57.68 per share

- 2023-08: $58.02 per share

- 2023-09: $49.98 per share

- 2023-10: $42.72 per share

- 2023-11: $47.14 per share

- 2023-12: $53.95 per share

- 2024-01: $52.07 per share

- 2024-02: $53.80 per share

- 2024-03: $58.80 per share

- 2024-04: $52.28 per share

- 2024-05: $53.76 per share

- 2024-06: $47.15 per share

- 2024-07: $45.61 per share

- 2024-08: $43.67 per share

- 2024-09: $47.98 per share

- 2024-10: $41.03 per share

- 2024-11: $42.59 per share

- 2024-12: $33.80 per share

- 2025-01: $29.29 per share

- 2025-02: $25.39 per share

- 2025-03: $24.24 per share

- 2025-04: $21.62 per share

- 2025-05: $19.41 per share

- 2025-06: $20.09 per share

- 2025-07: $18.94 per share

- 2025-08: $23.66 per share

- 2025-09: $24.99 per share

- 2025-10: $20.70 per share

- 2025-11: $21.10 per share

- 2025-12: $20.83 per share

- 2026-01: $20.81 per share

- 2026-02: $25.37 per share

- 2026-03: $29.73 per share

- 2026-04: $28.48 per share

- 2026-05: $25.87 per share

- 2026-06: $19.82 per share

- 2026-07: $18.51 per share

- 2026-08: $17.40 per share

- 2026-09: $15.50 per share

- 2026-10: $15.55 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $17.50 per share, central $19.85 per share, high $22.98 per share

- FY2017: low $38.72 per share, central $53.83 per share, high $63.07 per share

- FY2018: low $39.63 per share, central $51.29 per share, high $59.93 per share

- FY2019: low $19.26 per share, central $21.83 per share, high $25.26 per share

- FY2020: low $18.54 per share, central $21.03 per share, high $24.35 per share

- FY2021: low $46.82 per share, central $53.27 per share, high $61.86 per share

- FY2022: low $54.10 per share, central $61.56 per share, high $71.48 per share

- FY2023: low $64.55 per share, central $73.42 per share, high $85.22 per share

- FY2024: low $66.70 per share, central $75.84 per share, high $88.02 per share

- FY2025: low $71.98 per share, central $81.87 per share, high $95.03 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/74303/000007430326000027/oln-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.