# Old National Bancorp (ONB.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ONB

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:54.707Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $25.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $20.38 per share, central $25.48 per share, high $33.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value $25.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:54.707Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.1% at the stated quote. About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.19×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $134M

- FY2017: $96M

- FY2018: $191M

- FY2019: $238M

- FY2020: $226M

- FY2021: $278M

- FY2022: $414M

- FY2023: $566M

- FY2024: $523M

- FY2025: $653M

### moat: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 12.9%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 12.0%

- Cost / income, median: 62.6%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.2%

- FY2017: 7.7%

- FY2018: 12.3%

- FY2019: 13.6%

- FY2020: 12.0%

- FY2021: 14.3%

- FY2022: 14.9%

- FY2023: 17.5%

- FY2024: 13.7%

- FY2025: 12.2%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 12.8%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $7.40

- Ending book value per share: $14.66

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 22.5%

- FY2017: 11.6%

- FY2018: 15.8%

- FY2019: 7.8%

- FY2020: 17.4%

- FY2021: 7.8%

- FY2022: -8.8%

- FY2023: 16.6%

- FY2024: 16.3%

- FY2025: 24.5%

### management: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- ordinary share count growth exceeds 2% annually in both the full and five-year windows

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 12.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 17.1%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 12.1%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 17.1%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.07×

- Book value created per share: $7.25

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $6.78

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 110

- FY2017: 119

- FY2018: 135

- FY2019: 149

- FY2020: 143

- FY2021: 143

- FY2022: 238

- FY2023: 251

- FY2024: 268

- FY2025: 314

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Deposits, annualized growth: 20.7%

- Known restatement years: 0

- Years loan growth exceeded twice deposit growth: 0

- Years credit losses exceeded peer median: 0

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 5.9% a year forever · net income +24.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:19.786Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 5.9% a year forever

- 2026-01-21: Old National outlines 4% to 6% loan growth for 2026 while strengthening capital position ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4541245-old-national-outlines-4-percent-to-6-percent-loan-growth-for-2026-while-strengthening-capital?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-22: Old National Bancorp shares climb after second-quarter earnings exceed forecasts (NASDAQ:ONB) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/old-national-bancorp-shares-climb-122709759.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +24.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707179/000070717926000010/onb-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $134M 

- FY2017: $96M 

- FY2018: $191M 

- FY2019: $238M 

- FY2020: $226M 

- FY2021: $278M 

- FY2022: $414M 

- FY2023: $566M 

- FY2024: $523M 

- FY2025: $653M 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in regional banking; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707179/000070717926000010/onb-20251231.htm#000070717926000010 (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 2524405000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ONB.US: Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, such as noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking and negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits. The company also offers loans, including home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, and consumer loans, as well as loans to commercial clients comprising commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, agricultural loans, letters of credit, and lease financing. In addition, it offers debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access and online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services. Further, the company offers private banking, wealth management, trust, investment advisory, brokerage, and foreign currency services; treasury management, merchant, and capital markets services for businesses; and community development lending and equity investment solutions. Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

### Why customers stay

It earns 12.9% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.12248565676027517],[2017,0.07666654119169719],[2018,0.12297340054994235],[2019,0.1357025420513469],[2020,0.11981543652574447],[2021,0.14303531432022948],[2022,0.14935913571494],[2023,0.1751101832808592],[2024,0.13714919061333825],[2025,0.12193524562281963]]; median 0.12933797130064462. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 71.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,67536000],[2017,72604000],[2018,82161000],[2019,89474000],[2020,92946000],[2021,92829000],[2022,177623000],[2023,180030000],[2024,191163000],[2025,225117000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707179/000070717926000010/onb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 71799000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ONB.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.674 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 5.9% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Price 25; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 1.0191638362709692; discount 0.1; growth 0.05923344654916124. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $14.70 per share

- 2016-11: $17.05 per share

- 2016-12: $18.15 per share

- 2017-01: $17.75 per share

- 2017-02: $18.35 per share

- 2017-03: $17.35 per share

- 2017-04: $16.80 per share

- 2017-05: $15.80 per share

- 2017-06: $17.25 per share

- 2017-07: $16.30 per share

- 2017-08: $16.35 per share

- 2017-09: $18.30 per share

- 2017-10: $18.20 per share

- 2017-11: $18.25 per share

- 2017-12: $17.45 per share

- 2018-01: $17.30 per share

- 2018-02: $17.00 per share

- 2018-03: $16.90 per share

- 2018-04: $17.20 per share

- 2018-05: $17.95 per share

- 2018-06: $18.60 per share

- 2018-07: $19.45 per share

- 2018-08: $20.30 per share

- 2018-09: $19.30 per share

- 2018-10: $17.85 per share

- 2018-11: $18.73 per share

- 2018-12: $15.40 per share

- 2019-01: $16.14 per share

- 2019-02: $17.78 per share

- 2019-03: $16.40 per share

- 2019-04: $17.08 per share

- 2019-05: $15.94 per share

- 2019-06: $16.59 per share

- 2019-07: $17.61 per share

- 2019-08: $16.80 per share

- 2019-09: $17.20 per share

- 2019-10: $18.00 per share

- 2019-11: $18.08 per share

- 2019-12: $18.29 per share

- 2020-01: $17.91 per share

- 2020-02: $15.76 per share

- 2020-03: $13.19 per share

- 2020-04: $14.17 per share

- 2020-05: $13.59 per share

- 2020-06: $13.76 per share

- 2020-07: $13.99 per share

- 2020-08: $13.98 per share

- 2020-09: $12.56 per share

- 2020-10: $13.98 per share

- 2020-11: $15.83 per share

- 2020-12: $16.56 per share

- 2021-01: $16.79 per share

- 2021-02: $18.13 per share

- 2021-03: $19.34 per share

- 2021-04: $18.90 per share

- 2021-05: $19.05 per share

- 2021-06: $17.61 per share

- 2021-07: $16.09 per share

- 2021-08: $16.66 per share

- 2021-09: $16.95 per share

- 2021-10: $17.08 per share

- 2021-11: $17.66 per share

- 2021-12: $18.12 per share

- 2022-01: $18.33 per share

- 2022-02: $18.28 per share

- 2022-03: $16.38 per share

- 2022-04: $15.16 per share

- 2022-05: $15.90 per share

- 2022-06: $14.79 per share

- 2022-07: $17.41 per share

- 2022-08: $16.69 per share

- 2022-09: $16.47 per share

- 2022-10: $19.56 per share

- 2022-11: $19.11 per share

- 2022-12: $17.98 per share

- 2023-01: $17.50 per share

- 2023-02: $17.67 per share

- 2023-03: $14.42 per share

- 2023-04: $13.41 per share

- 2023-05: $12.42 per share

- 2023-06: $13.94 per share

- 2023-07: $17.03 per share

- 2023-08: $15.26 per share

- 2023-09: $14.54 per share

- 2023-10: $13.70 per share

- 2023-11: $14.89 per share

- 2023-12: $16.89 per share

- 2024-01: $16.47 per share

- 2024-02: $16.43 per share

- 2024-03: $17.41 per share

- 2024-04: $16.54 per share

- 2024-05: $17.09 per share

- 2024-06: $17.19 per share

- 2024-07: $20.02 per share

- 2024-08: $19.85 per share

- 2024-09: $18.66 per share

- 2024-10: $19.26 per share

- 2024-11: $23.16 per share

- 2024-12: $21.71 per share

- 2025-01: $23.85 per share

- 2025-02: $23.75 per share

- 2025-03: $21.19 per share

- 2025-04: $20.59 per share

- 2025-05: $20.86 per share

- 2025-06: $21.34 per share

- 2025-07: $21.11 per share

- 2025-08: $22.89 per share

- 2025-09: $21.95 per share

- 2025-10: $20.43 per share

- 2025-11: $21.73 per share

- 2025-12: $22.31 per share

- 2026-01: $24.43 per share

- 2026-02: $23.10 per share

- 2026-03: $22.10 per share

- 2026-04: $23.97 per share

- 2026-05: $24.01 per share

- 2026-06: $25.90 per share

- 2026-07: $26.64 per share

- 2026-08: $25.58 per share

- 2026-09: $24.64 per share

- 2026-10: $25.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $9.42 per share, central $11.71 per share, high $15.47 per share

- FY2017: low $9.51 per share, central $11.75 per share, high $15.38 per share

- FY2018: low $10.57 per share, central $13.21 per share, high $17.61 per share

- FY2019: low $12.01 per share, central $15.01 per share, high $20.02 per share

- FY2020: low $13.91 per share, central $17.38 per share, high $23.18 per share

- FY2021: low $14.67 per share, central $18.34 per share, high $24.45 per share

- FY2022: low $14.30 per share, central $17.87 per share, high $23.83 per share

- FY2023: low $16.44 per share, central $20.55 per share, high $27.39 per share

- FY2024: low $19.37 per share, central $24.21 per share, high $32.28 per share

- FY2025: low $20.84 per share, central $26.04 per share, high $34.73 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707179/000070717926000010/onb-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.