Margins varied 18.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 10.6%
- Worst year
- 6.4%
- Latest · 2026
- 10.8%
# Oil & Natural Gas (ONGC.NSE) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ONGC.NSE Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026. Listing currency: INR. Reporting currency: INR. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: INR 224.64 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low INR 227.24 per share, central INR 251.47 per share, high INR 282.20 per share. Buy at or below the central value INR 251.47 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 12.5% at the stated quote. About 12.5% a year at today's price (required return 11.4%). required return 11.4% a year (IN 10-year bond 7.4% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 4 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.19× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.12× - FY2018: 0.10× - FY2019: 0.12× - FY2020: 0.06× - FY2021: 0.08× - FY2022: 0.11× - FY2023: 0.08× - FY2024: 0.12× - FY2025: 0.09× - FY2026: 0.11× ### moat: fail - The return floor includes all equity, debt and leases without deducting cash or goodwill. Only a floor above the hurdle establishes a pass. - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: 10.1% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.7% - Conservative return floor, median: 9.0% - Conservative return floor, second lowest: 4.9% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 6.8% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.0% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: 13.3% - FY2023: 10.1% - FY2024: 11.3% - FY2025: 8.0% - FY2026: 9.7% ### economics: fail - owner earnings cash conversion below threshold - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.76× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: INR 1.57T - Net income, five-year total: INR 2.08T - Return on incremental invested capital: 28.7% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.7 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.6% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: 1.00× - FY2023: 0.83× - FY2024: 0.69× - FY2025: 0.67× - FY2026: 0.58× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - Per-share earnings: 17.23 to 32.93 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0% - Market cap gain: INR 1.21T - Cumulative retained earnings: INR 1.79T - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026 - Per-share value growth: 8.4% - Per-share value change: INR 15.70 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: INR 17.23 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: INR 32.93 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.37 - Average buyback yield: 0.3% - Buyback history: 6 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Cumulative net income, 10 years: INR 3.12T - ROIC, last three-year median: 9.7% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: INR 19.03 - FY2018: INR 17.23 - FY2019: INR 24.28 - FY2020: INR 8.59 - FY2021: INR 12.96 - FY2022: INR 36.19 - FY2023: INR 28.17 - FY2024: INR 39.13 - FY2025: INR 28.80 - FY2026: INR 32.93 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -9.1% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04× - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 2.72× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -4.8% - FY2018: -7.6% - FY2019: -6.3% - FY2020: -11.8% - FY2021: -5.7% - FY2022: -5.6% - FY2023: -8.0% - FY2024: -6.7% - FY2025: -7.3% - FY2026: -9.1% ## Holders ## Price story Down 33% since Jul 2024 · sales -0.6% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.013Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.7% a year for ten years ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales -0.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16. - FY2017: INR 2.83T - FY2018: INR 3.23T - FY2019: INR 4.22T - FY2020: INR 3.97T - FY2021: INR 3.04T - FY2022: INR 4.91T - FY2023: INR 6.32T - FY2024: INR 6.02T - FY2025: INR 6.12T - FY2026: INR 6.09T ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in oil exploration & production; annual sales are INR 6.1 trillion. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2026: revenue 6086630000000; operatingIncome 657290000000; margin = operatingIncome / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 8.8% to 12% during 2024–26; it earns 10.1% on its capital. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2024: operatingIncome / revenue = 12%. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2025: operatingIncome / revenue = 8.8%. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2026: operatingIncome / revenue = 10.8%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2022,0.13268076730001122],[2023,0.10147838337955448],[2024,0.11328522566954015],[2025,0.07971486649207046],[2026,0.0972627393706783]]; median 0.10147838337955448. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back INR 2.5 million of shares. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2017: growth capex 3050000000; upkeep 202190000000; owner earnings 244190000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012490273966992916. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2018: growth capex 47030000000; upkeep 231120000000; owner earnings 221060000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21274767031575137. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2019: growth capex 22590000000; upkeep 237040000000; owner earnings 305460000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07395403653506187. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 323190000000; owner earnings 95230000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2022: growth capex 65740000000; upkeep 268830000000; owner earnings 455220000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14441369008391547. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2023: growth capex 122350000000; upkeep 245570000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 294915400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.414864737480647. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 381330000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 340894600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2025: growth capex 58230000000; upkeep 352060000000; cash acquisitions 11569000000; owner earnings 242312300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.288053887483219. - Source: https://www.screener.in/company/ONGC/consolidated/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 412820000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 241198500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,153500000000],[2018,94960000000],[2019,100860000000],[2020,82970000000],[2021,30960000000],[2022,129240000000],[2023,176090000000],[2024,128950000000],[2025,169850000000],[2026,169800000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/xbrl/INTEGRATED_FILING_INDAS_1673578_26052026093743_WEB.xml (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 2500000 INR. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:24.188Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.022327220640464385. Price 224.64; FX 1; discount 0.11391000000000001; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 11.01469281553398 → FY2026 19.17406963354577. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (INR per share) - 2016-11: INR 192.60 per share - 2016-12: INR 191.35 per share - 2017-01: INR 202.55 per share - 2017-02: INR 193.55 per share - 2017-03: INR 185.00 per share - 2017-04: INR 186.55 per share - 2017-05: INR 177.00 per share - 2017-06: INR 157.30 per share - 2017-07: INR 169.40 per share - 2017-08: INR 156.95 per share - 2017-09: INR 170.95 per share - 2017-10: INR 191.10 per share - 2017-11: INR 180.65 per share - 2017-12: INR 195.20 per share - 2018-01: INR 203.45 per share - 2018-02: INR 188.30 per share - 2018-03: INR 177.80 per share - 2018-04: INR 180.55 per share - 2018-05: INR 177.90 per share - 2018-06: INR 158.40 per share - 2018-07: INR 165.70 per share - 2018-08: INR 180.05 per share - 2018-09: INR 177.20 per share - 2018-10: INR 153.25 per share - 2018-11: INR 140.30 per share - 2018-12: INR 149.90 per share - 2019-01: INR 141.25 per share - 2019-02: INR 148.65 per share - 2019-03: INR 159.75 per share - 2019-04: INR 169.20 per share - 2019-05: INR 171.95 per share - 2019-06: INR 167.75 per share - 2019-07: INR 138.85 per share - 2019-08: INR 121.20 per share - 2019-09: INR 131.80 per share - 2019-10: INR 141.70 per share - 2019-11: INR 131.75 per share - 2019-12: INR 128.80 per share - 2020-01: INR 108.95 per share - 2020-02: INR 91.95 per share - 2020-03: INR 68.30 per share - 2020-04: INR 79.90 per share - 2020-05: INR 83.20 per share - 2020-06: INR 81.35 per share - 2020-07: INR 78.30 per share - 2020-08: INR 81.95 per share - 2020-09: INR 69.25 per share - 2020-10: INR 64.90 per share - 2020-11: INR 78.50 per share - 2020-12: INR 93.05 per share - 2021-01: INR 88.30 per share - 2021-02: INR 111.00 per share - 2021-03: INR 102.15 per share - 2021-04: INR 108.15 per share - 2021-05: INR 113.65 per share - 2021-06: INR 117.70 per share - 2021-07: INR 115.30 per share - 2021-08: INR 120.55 per share - 2021-09: INR 144.50 per share - 2021-10: INR 149.05 per share - 2021-11: INR 142.10 per share - 2021-12: INR 142.40 per share - 2022-01: INR 172.60 per share - 2022-02: INR 160.65 per share - 2022-03: INR 163.90 per share - 2022-04: INR 160.45 per share - 2022-05: INR 151.25 per share - 2022-06: INR 151.55 per share - 2022-07: INR 134.15 per share - 2022-08: INR 138.60 per share - 2022-09: INR 126.80 per share - 2022-10: INR 134.05 per share - 2022-11: INR 141.10 per share - 2022-12: INR 146.75 per share - 2023-01: INR 144.90 per share - 2023-02: INR 152.05 per share - 2023-03: INR 151.05 per share - 2023-04: INR 158.95 per share - 2023-05: INR 154.90 per share - 2023-06: INR 160.30 per share - 2023-07: INR 177.05 per share - 2023-08: INR 174.15 per share - 2023-09: INR 191.85 per share - 2023-10: INR 186.15 per share - 2023-11: INR 194.95 per share - 2023-12: INR 205.05 per share - 2024-01: INR 252.25 per share - 2024-02: INR 264.60 per share - 2024-03: INR 268.05 per share - 2024-04: INR 282.85 per share - 2024-05: INR 264.35 per share - 2024-06: INR 274.20 per share - 2024-07: INR 334.20 per share - 2024-08: INR 330.75 per share - 2024-09: INR 297.60 per share - 2024-10: INR 266.15 per share - 2024-11: INR 256.70 per share - 2024-12: INR 239.25 per share - 2025-01: INR 262.61 per share - 2025-02: INR 225.25 per share - 2025-03: INR 246.38 per share - 2025-04: INR 244.45 per share - 2025-05: INR 239.40 per share - 2025-06: INR 244.21 per share - 2025-07: INR 241.00 per share - 2025-08: INR 233.71 per share - 2025-09: INR 239.50 per share - 2025-10: INR 255.37 per share - 2025-11: INR 243.25 per share - 2025-12: INR 240.38 per share - 2026-01: INR 268.96 per share - 2026-02: INR 279.70 per share - 2026-03: INR 284.65 per share - 2026-04: INR 299.55 per share - 2026-05: INR 265.40 per share - 2026-06: INR 234.90 per share - 2026-07: INR 242.53 per share - 2026-08: INR 231.80 per share - 2026-09: INR 225.80 per share - 2026-10: INR 224.64 per share ## Annual estimated value (INR per share) - FY2019: low INR 271.27 per share, central INR 302.37 per share, high INR 341.82 per share - FY2020: low INR 215.36 per share, central INR 239.89 per share, high INR 271.01 per share - FY2021: low INR 155.82 per share, central INR 173.59 per share, high INR 196.12 per share - FY2022: low INR 250.53 per share, central INR 279.25 per share, high INR 315.68 per share - FY2023: low INR 232.63 per share, central INR 257.80 per share, high INR 289.72 per share - FY2024: low INR 232.95 per share, central INR 256.93 per share, high INR 287.35 per share - FY2025: low INR 238.40 per share, central INR 281.87 per share, high INR 318.16 per share - FY2026: low INR 227.24 per share, central INR 251.47 per share, high INR 282.20 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:09.807Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
ONGC · NSE
Nifty 50
Not a wonderful business
2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 18.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 10.1% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 9.7% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $0.76 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from 17.23 to 32.93, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -9.1% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 9.9%, three-year average owner earnings per share 21.86 INR.
| Value range | INR 227.24 – INR 282.20 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value INR 251.47 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 224.64 / 251.47 = 10.7% |
| Return / year | About 12.5% a year at today's price (required return 11.4%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash INR 22.57/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash INR 15.90/share today. |
| Required return | 11.4% / year, earned by construction at the central value |