# On Holding (ONON.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ONON

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:55.234Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: CHF.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $35.19 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $12.40 per share, central $13.46 per share, high $14.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value $13.46 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:55.234Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.0% at the stated quote. About 5.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 4.18×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: -0.04×

- FY2021: -0.19×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -8.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 59.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 60.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 5.7%

- FY2020: -8.1%

- FY2021: -31.8%

- FY2022: 8.6%

- FY2023: 22.8%

- FY2024: 23.8%

- FY2025: 31.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.28×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CHF 528M

- Net income, five-year total: CHF 413M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 85.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.1 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.22×

- FY2024: 1.16×

- FY2025: 1.28×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -8.1% vs 23.8%

- Per-share earnings: -0.10 to 0.31 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 19.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 19.2%

- Per-share value change: CHF 0.42

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CHF -0.10

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CHF 0.31

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.80

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: -8.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: CHF -0.00

- FY2020: CHF -0.10

- FY2021: CHF -0.55

- FY2022: CHF 0.09

- FY2023: CHF 0.12

- FY2024: CHF 0.37

- FY2025: CHF 0.31

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -4.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 20.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 2.6%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: -15.1%

- FY2022: 20.6%

- FY2023: -9.6%

- FY2024: -11.3%

- FY2025: -4.2%

## Holders

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Stephen Mandel](https://gigainvestors.com/LPC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 41% since Jan 2025 · "On Holding stock slumps 12% after 2026 revenue outlook falls short of estimates" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +30%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:20.070Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 16.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-13: On Raises 2025 Guidance After Reporting Record Sales in Q1 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/raises-2025-guidance-reporting-record-124353561.html))

- 2025-11-16: On Holding (ONON) Surges 21% on Earnings Blowout, Upbeat Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/holding-onon-surges-21-earnings-161739966.html))

- 2025-12-08: ONON's 34% Sales Growth Outlook Points to a Stronger Path in 2026 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/onons-34-sales-growth-outlook-155700352.html))

- 2026-03-03: On Holding stock slumps 12% after 2026 revenue outlook falls short of estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/holding-stock-slides-2026-revenue-104054208.html))

- 2026-05-12: On Holding raises profit forecast after Q1 2026 earnings beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/holding-raises-profit-forecast-q1-152553311.html))

- 2026-08-11: On Holding Q2 2026 earnings: stock drops 22% on sales miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/holding-q2-2026-earnings-stock-171220135.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +30%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858985/000185898526000008/onholdingag-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-03.

- FY2019: CHF 267M 

- FY2020: CHF 425M 

- FY2021: CHF 725M 

- FY2022: CHF 1.2B 

- FY2023: CHF 1.8B 

- FY2024: CHF 2.3B 

- FY2025: CHF 3.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 62.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858985/000185898526000008/onholdingag-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-03.

- FY2019: 53.6% 

- FY2020: 54.3% 

- FY2021: 59.4% 

- FY2022: 56.0% 

- FY2023: 59.6% 

- FY2024: 60.6% 

- FY2025: 62.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in footwear & accessories; annual sales are CHF 3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858985/000185898526000008/onholdingag-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: revenue 3014000000; grossProfit 1893600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ONON.US: On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 59.6% to 62.8% during 2023–25; it earns 8.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 59.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 60.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858985/000185898526000008/onholdingag-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 62.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.05693028912769037],[2020,-0.08112344166606615],[2021,-0.3179296595352658],[2022,0.08625204024920727],[2023,0.22830356011655897],[2024,0.23817028484410457],[2025,0.313685365886244]]; median 0.08625204024920727. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 7 years; bought back CHF 200000 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2022: growth capex 36600000; upkeep 46400000; owner earnings 57700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.634315424610052.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 47200000; owner earnings 97300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 65000000; owner earnings 281900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858985/000185898526000008/onholdingag-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 69622625; owner earnings 261477375. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Dividend observations: [[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001858985.json#0001858985-26-000008 (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: cash repurchases 200000 CHF.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 24.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ONON.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 24.217 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 16.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.22935869121574892. Price 35.19; FX 1.2082; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-09: $30.13 per share

- 2021-10: $34.16 per share

- 2021-11: $40.16 per share

- 2021-12: $37.81 per share

- 2022-01: $26.37 per share

- 2022-02: $24.35 per share

- 2022-03: $25.24 per share

- 2022-04: $24.97 per share

- 2022-05: $20.65 per share

- 2022-06: $17.69 per share

- 2022-07: $21.77 per share

- 2022-08: $19.99 per share

- 2022-09: $16.05 per share

- 2022-10: $17.59 per share

- 2022-11: $19.42 per share

- 2022-12: $17.16 per share

- 2023-01: $23.20 per share

- 2023-02: $21.87 per share

- 2023-03: $31.03 per share

- 2023-04: $32.45 per share

- 2023-05: $27.45 per share

- 2023-06: $33.00 per share

- 2023-07: $36.00 per share

- 2023-08: $28.83 per share

- 2023-09: $27.82 per share

- 2023-10: $25.67 per share

- 2023-11: $29.01 per share

- 2023-12: $26.97 per share

- 2024-01: $26.56 per share

- 2024-02: $35.02 per share

- 2024-03: $35.38 per share

- 2024-04: $31.75 per share

- 2024-05: $42.54 per share

- 2024-06: $38.80 per share

- 2024-07: $41.42 per share

- 2024-08: $46.98 per share

- 2024-09: $50.15 per share

- 2024-10: $47.42 per share

- 2024-11: $58.33 per share

- 2024-12: $54.77 per share

- 2025-01: $59.88 per share

- 2025-02: $48.48 per share

- 2025-03: $43.92 per share

- 2025-04: $48.11 per share

- 2025-05: $59.39 per share

- 2025-06: $52.05 per share

- 2025-07: $48.57 per share

- 2025-08: $45.08 per share

- 2025-09: $42.35 per share

- 2025-10: $37.15 per share

- 2025-11: $43.99 per share

- 2025-12: $46.48 per share

- 2026-01: $45.25 per share

- 2026-02: $46.48 per share

- 2026-03: $34.02 per share

- 2026-04: $35.61 per share

- 2026-05: $40.82 per share

- 2026-06: $35.42 per share

- 2026-07: $36.24 per share

- 2026-08: $28.50 per share

- 2026-09: $29.61 per share

- 2026-10: $35.19 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2024: low $3.93 per share, central $4.24 per share, high $4.65 per share

- FY2025: low $5.11 per share, central $5.57 per share, high $6.18 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:39.879Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858985/000185898526000008/onholdingag-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.