# Orange (ORA.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ORA.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:01.661Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 14.44 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 6.73 per share, central EUR 7.11 per share, high EUR 7.61 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 7.11 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:01.661Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.0% at the stated quote. About 5.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 22.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 22.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 19.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.9%

- FY2017: 12.4%

- FY2018: 8.6%

- FY2019: 8.9%

- FY2020: 13.3%

- FY2021: 3.7%

- FY2022: 7.0%

- FY2023: 9.8%

- FY2024: 8.3%

- FY2025: 5.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.16×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 1.2B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 7.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -20.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -11.91×

- FY2022: 0.36×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.89×

- FY2025: 0.76×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.6% vs 8.3%

- Per-share earnings: 1.06 to 0.92 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: EUR 1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR -603M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -1.8%

- Per-share value change: EUR -0.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 1.06

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.92

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.14

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 29B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 22B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 1.11

- FY2017: EUR 0.69

- FY2018: EUR 0.96

- FY2019: EUR 1.13

- FY2020: EUR 1.80

- FY2021: EUR 0.09

- FY2022: EUR 0.78

- FY2023: EUR 0.92

- FY2024: EUR 0.99

- FY2025: EUR 0.20

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 20.04×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.32×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.2%

- FY2017: -8.7%

- FY2018: -7.8%

- FY2019: -6.5%

- FY2020: -7.1%

- FY2021: -9.9%

- FY2022: -8.0%

- FY2023: -8.7%

- FY2024: -7.6%

- FY2025: -9.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Feb 2026 · sales +0.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.822Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 16.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-23: Orange: Solid third-quarter results, leading to an increase in annual EBITDAaL growth guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/orange-solid-third-quarter-results-053000512.html))

- 2026-02-28: Orange (ENXTPA:ORA) Valuation Check As New Dividend Guidance And 2025 Results Shift Investor Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/orange-enxtpa-ora-valuation-check-071026726.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/969500MCOONR8990S771/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/ORAN-2024-12-31-0-fr/reports/969500MCOONR8990S771-2024-12-31-0-fr.xhtml; observed 2025-04-15.

- FY2016: EUR 41B 

- FY2017: EUR 41B 

- FY2018: EUR 41B 

- FY2019: EUR 42B 

- FY2020: EUR 42B 

- FY2021: EUR 43B 

- FY2022: EUR 43B 

- FY2023: EUR 44B 

- FY2024: EUR 40B 

- FY2025: EUR 40B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/969500MCOONR8990S771/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/ORAN-2024-12-31-0-fr/reports/969500MCOONR8990S771-2024-12-31-0-fr.xhtml; observed 2025-04-15.

- FY2016: 38.6% 

- FY2017: 38.9% 

- FY2018: 38.1% 

- FY2019: 40.1% 

- FY2020: 40.2% 

- FY2021: 36.6% 

- FY2022: 38.5% 

- FY2023: 37.8% 

- FY2024: 39.6% 

- FY2025: 15.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in telecom services; annual sales are EUR 40.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2025: revenue 40396000000; grossProfit 6365000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORA.PA: Orange S.A. operates as a telecommunications operator in France and internationally. The company offers mobile services, such as voice, SMS, and data; and fixed broadband and narrowband services, as well as B2B fixed solutions and network services, including voice and data services. It also sells handsets, broadband equipment, connected devices, and accessories. In addition, it provides IT and integration services comprising unified communication and collaboration services, such as LAN and telephony, consultancy, integration, and project management; hosting and infrastructure services, including cloud computing; customer relations management and other applications services; security services; and video conferencing, as well as sells related equipment. Further, the company offers national and international roaming services; online advertising services; and mobile virtual network operator, network sharing, and mobile financial services, as well as sells equipment to external distributors, brokers, and operators. It markets its products and services under the Orange brand name. The company has a strategic collaboration with Nokia and NVIDIA for the development and evaluation of AI-RAN technologies The company was formerly known as France Telecom and changed its name to Orange S.A. in July 2013. Orange S.A. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Issy-les-Moulineaux, France.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.8% to 39.6% during 2023–25; it earns 8.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/969500MCOONR8990S771/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/ORAN-2024-12-31-0-fr/reports/969500MCOONR8990S771-2024-12-31-0-fr.xhtml (filed 2025-04-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06931422193183055],[2017,0.12402056484369346],[2018,0.08586415362731152],[2019,0.08918567105975886],[2020,0.13346064590988205],[2021,0.03738564030024412],[2022,0.06986577317426411],[2023,0.09776359810855534],[2024,0.08277452385926742],[2025,0.05438451356717406]]; median 0.08431933874328948. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 39% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/969500MCOONR8990S771/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/ORAN-2024-12-31-0-fr/reports/969500MCOONR8990S771-2024-12-31-0-fr.xhtml (filed 2025-04-15); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3659752598654814],[2022,0.3854753743875227],[2023,0.37797470649562576]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 11 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2016: growth capex 279500325.97753143; upkeep 8212499674.022469; owner earnings 1328500325.9775314. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21038784899948798.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2017: growth capex 92703496.94267082; upkeep 7434296503.057329; owner earnings 1254703496.9426708. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07388478406935259.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2018: growth capex 331345310.0593786; upkeep 7310654689.940621; owner earnings 1690345310.0593786. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19602226130218275.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2019: growth capex 585211810.3132353; upkeep 7836788189.686765; owner earnings 992811810.3132353. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5894488806782013.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2020: growth capex 23318838.994534492; upkeep 8522681161.0054655; owner earnings 2014118838.9945345. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.011577687742683276.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2022: growth capex 235000000; upkeep 8542000000; owner earnings 766721436.7596483. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30649984301099925.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2023: growth capex 82000000; upkeep 7747000000; owner earnings 726400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11288546255506608.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/969500MCOONR8990S771/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/ORAN-2024-12-31-0-fr/reports/969500MCOONR8990S771-2024-12-31-0-fr.xhtml (filed 2025-04-15); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 6710000000; owner earnings 2099800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 7322000000; owner earnings 406971729.58735734. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); Dividend observations: [[2016,1596000000],[2017,1729000000],[2018,1860000000],[2019,2133000000],[2020,1875000000],[2021,2365000000],[2022,2074000000],[2023,1862000000],[2024,1915000000],[2025,1994000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); FY2025: cash repurchases 11000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 21.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORA.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 21.542 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 16.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 14.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-04-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.22234386604651735. Price 14.44; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.7153784399888766 → FY2025 0.1530947333210538. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 14.35 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 13.76 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 14.44 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 14.33 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 14.27 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 14.57 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 14.20 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 15.64 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 13.89 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 14.22 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 14.28 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 13.86 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 14.09 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 14.48 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 14.48 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 14.55 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 13.94 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 13.79 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 15.12 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 14.73 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 14.35 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 14.62 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 13.95 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 13.74 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 13.82 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 15.16 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 14.16 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 13.57 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 13.44 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 14.50 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 13.97 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 14.04 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 13.87 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 13.43 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 13.80 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 14.40 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 14.44 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 15.00 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 13.12 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 12.81 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 12.19 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 11.14 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 11.14 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 10.85 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 10.65 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 9.91 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 9.33 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 8.88 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 9.63 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 10.59 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 9.73 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 9.70 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 9.55 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 10.51 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 10.35 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 10.41 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 9.62 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 9.40 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 9.62 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 9.35 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 9.44 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 9.51 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 9.41 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 10.42 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 10.81 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 10.70 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 11.32 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 11.65 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 11.22 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 10.00 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 10.10 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 9.25 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 9.63 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 9.77 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 9.28 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 9.72 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 10.79 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 10.95 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 11.82 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 11.17 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 10.70 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 10.28 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 10.36 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 10.86 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 11.11 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 11.30 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 10.30 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 11.00 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 10.61 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 10.89 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 10.43 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 10.73 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 9.35 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 10.25 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 10.30 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 10.29 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 10.10 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 10.09 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 9.63 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 10.38 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 11.55 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 12.00 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 12.79 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 13.14 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 12.92 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 13.35 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 13.90 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 13.81 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 13.84 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 14.19 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 14.20 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 15.62 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 18.19 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 17.68 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 17.77 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 17.94 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 16.51 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 16.57 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 15.41 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 13.71 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 13.88 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 15.73 per share, central EUR 17.32 per share, high EUR 19.44 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 11.62 per share, central EUR 12.66 per share, high EUR 14.03 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 14.42 per share, central EUR 15.67 per share, high EUR 17.34 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 7.81 per share, central EUR 8.59 per share, high EUR 9.63 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 9.56 per share, central EUR 10.34 per share, high EUR 11.37 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 9.14 per share, central EUR 9.88 per share, high EUR 10.87 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 6.97 per share, central EUR 7.54 per share, high EUR 8.29 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 5.99 per share, central EUR 6.43 per share, high EUR 7.02 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 8.06 per share, central EUR 8.51 per share, high EUR 9.11 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 5.29 per share, central EUR 5.67 per share, high EUR 6.17 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/969500MCOONR8990S771/2024-12-31/ESEF/FR/0/ORAN-2024-12-31-0-fr/reports/969500MCOONR8990S771-2024-12-31-0-fr.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-04-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.