# Oracle (ORCL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ORCL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:56.828Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $134.47 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $53.10 per share, central $68.49 per share, high $78.27 per share. Buy at or below the central value $68.49 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:56.828Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.3% at the stated quote. About 6.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.34×

- FY2020: 0.36×

- FY2021: 0.38×

- FY2022: 0.26×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.29×

- FY2025: 0.31×

- FY2026: 0.31×

- LTM to Aug 2026: 0.32×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- Recent gross margin fell 12.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 76.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 63.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 8.1%

- FY2019: 15.7%

- FY2020: 14.0%

- FY2021: 17.0%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: 63.9%

- FY2024: 45.2%

- FY2025: 30.4%

- FY2026: 17.4%

- LTM to Aug 2026: 16.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $755M

- Net income, five-year total: $55B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 15.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -7.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.84×

- FY2023: 0.88×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: -0.07×

- FY2026: -1.29×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.7% vs 30.4%

- Per-share earnings: 2.07 to 4.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: $462B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$32B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 9.7%

- Per-share value change: $2.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.34

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.78

- Average buyback yield: 6.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $38B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $103B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 30.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $2.24

- FY2018: $0.85

- FY2019: $2.97

- FY2020: $3.08

- FY2021: $4.55

- FY2022: $2.41

- FY2023: $3.07

- FY2024: $3.71

- FY2025: $4.34

- FY2026: $5.86

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -5.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 15.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.87×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.54×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.5%

- FY2018: -8.6%

- FY2019: -3.2%

- FY2020: -2.6%

- FY2021: -1.6%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -6.4%

- FY2024: -5.8%

- FY2025: -5.0%

- FY2026: -5.7%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 52% since Sep 2025 · "Oracle stock falls on more debt to fund AI chip buying, OpenAI revenue disclosure" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +6.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:20.429Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-31: Nvidia, Oracle could see huge revenue boosts from Stargate data center in Texas: UBS ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4453905-nvidia-oracle-could-see-huge-revenue-boosts-from-stargate-data-center-in-texas-ubs?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-06-30: Oracle signs cloud deal worth $30 billion a year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracle-inks-cloud-deal-worth-150659560.html))

- 2025-09-10: Oracle shares soar on $144 billion AI cloud revenue forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracle-shares-soar-144-billion-130626991.html))

- 2025-11-14: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street’s tech sell-off over its huge AI bet ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracle-hit-hard-wall-street-050038400.html))

- 2026-05-07: Why Oracle (ORCL) Is Up 18.4% After New OpenAI‑Linked AI Infrastructure Deals And Financing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-oracle-orcl-18-4-052219402.html))

- 2026-06-11: Oracle sees higher capex, 'step down' in gross margin in fiscal '27; shares tumble ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602468-oracle-sees-higher-capex-step-down-in-gross-margin-in-fiscal-27-shares-tumble?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +6.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2018: $40B 

- FY2019: $40B 

- FY2020: $39B 

- FY2021: $40B 

- FY2022: $42B 

- FY2023: $50B 

- FY2024: $53B 

- FY2025: $57B 

- FY2026: $67B 

- FY2027: $72B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 63.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2018: 79.8% 

- FY2019: 79.8% 

- FY2020: 79.7% 

- FY2021: 80.6% 

- FY2022: 79.1% 

- FY2023: 72.8% 

- FY2024: 71.4% 

- FY2025: 70.5% 

- FY2026: 65.2% 

- FY2027: 63.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software infrastructure; annual sales are USD 67.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 67358000000; grossProfit 43916000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 65.2% to 71.4% during 2024–26; it earns 17.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 71.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 70.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 65.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.0805824789000944],[2019,0.15686084989456864],[2020,0.13953503675922868],[2021,0.170009946023267],[2022,2.4438896284092686],[2023,0.6385003050790681],[2024,0.4519868824565986],[2025,0.3037328703757402],[2026,0.1737362554582374],[2027,0.16397525462202436]]; median 0.17187310074075218. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 206 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2021000000; owner earnings 9882000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1736000000; owner earnings 4636000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1660000000; owner earnings 12342000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1564000000; owner earnings 11539000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2135000000; owner earnings 14527000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 340901611.505177; upkeep 4170098388.494823; owner earnings 5668901611.505177. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06013539039261305.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 1597246986.0752335; upkeep 7097753013.924767; owner earnings 7513246986.075233. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21259077320837586.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 727000000; upkeep 6139000000; owner earnings 10467000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06945638673927582.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,2631000000],[2018,3140000000],[2019,2932000000],[2020,3070000000],[2021,3063000000],[2022,3457000000],[2023,3668000000],[2024,4391000000],[2025,4743000000],[2026,5787000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 206000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 38.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORCL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 38.395 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"There are risks associated with our outstanding and future indebtedness." (SEC filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm (filed 2026-06-22); There are risks associated with our outstanding and future indebtedness.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2084237043246705. Price 134.47; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 2.3742160278745645 → FY2026 -7.546847806638109. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $38.42 per share

- 2016-11: $40.19 per share

- 2016-12: $38.45 per share

- 2017-01: $40.11 per share

- 2017-02: $42.59 per share

- 2017-03: $44.61 per share

- 2017-04: $44.96 per share

- 2017-05: $45.39 per share

- 2017-06: $50.14 per share

- 2017-07: $49.93 per share

- 2017-08: $50.33 per share

- 2017-09: $48.35 per share

- 2017-10: $50.90 per share

- 2017-11: $49.06 per share

- 2017-12: $47.28 per share

- 2018-01: $51.59 per share

- 2018-02: $50.67 per share

- 2018-03: $45.75 per share

- 2018-04: $45.67 per share

- 2018-05: $46.72 per share

- 2018-06: $44.06 per share

- 2018-07: $47.68 per share

- 2018-08: $48.58 per share

- 2018-09: $51.56 per share

- 2018-10: $48.84 per share

- 2018-11: $48.76 per share

- 2018-12: $45.15 per share

- 2019-01: $50.23 per share

- 2019-02: $52.13 per share

- 2019-03: $53.71 per share

- 2019-04: $55.33 per share

- 2019-05: $50.60 per share

- 2019-06: $56.97 per share

- 2019-07: $56.30 per share

- 2019-08: $52.06 per share

- 2019-09: $55.03 per share

- 2019-10: $54.49 per share

- 2019-11: $56.14 per share

- 2019-12: $52.98 per share

- 2020-01: $52.45 per share

- 2020-02: $49.46 per share

- 2020-03: $48.33 per share

- 2020-04: $52.97 per share

- 2020-05: $53.77 per share

- 2020-06: $55.27 per share

- 2020-07: $55.45 per share

- 2020-08: $57.22 per share

- 2020-09: $59.70 per share

- 2020-10: $56.11 per share

- 2020-11: $57.72 per share

- 2020-12: $64.69 per share

- 2021-01: $60.43 per share

- 2021-02: $64.51 per share

- 2021-03: $70.17 per share

- 2021-04: $75.79 per share

- 2021-05: $78.74 per share

- 2021-06: $77.84 per share

- 2021-07: $87.14 per share

- 2021-08: $89.13 per share

- 2021-09: $87.13 per share

- 2021-10: $95.94 per share

- 2021-11: $90.74 per share

- 2021-12: $87.21 per share

- 2022-01: $81.16 per share

- 2022-02: $75.97 per share

- 2022-03: $82.73 per share

- 2022-04: $73.40 per share

- 2022-05: $71.92 per share

- 2022-06: $69.87 per share

- 2022-07: $77.84 per share

- 2022-08: $74.15 per share

- 2022-09: $61.07 per share

- 2022-10: $78.07 per share

- 2022-11: $83.03 per share

- 2022-12: $81.74 per share

- 2023-01: $88.46 per share

- 2023-02: $87.40 per share

- 2023-03: $92.92 per share

- 2023-04: $94.72 per share

- 2023-05: $105.94 per share

- 2023-06: $119.09 per share

- 2023-07: $117.23 per share

- 2023-08: $120.39 per share

- 2023-09: $105.92 per share

- 2023-10: $103.40 per share

- 2023-11: $116.21 per share

- 2023-12: $105.43 per share

- 2024-01: $111.70 per share

- 2024-02: $111.68 per share

- 2024-03: $125.61 per share

- 2024-04: $113.75 per share

- 2024-05: $117.19 per share

- 2024-06: $141.20 per share

- 2024-07: $139.45 per share

- 2024-08: $141.29 per share

- 2024-09: $170.40 per share

- 2024-10: $167.84 per share

- 2024-11: $184.84 per share

- 2024-12: $166.64 per share

- 2025-01: $170.06 per share

- 2025-02: $166.06 per share

- 2025-03: $139.81 per share

- 2025-04: $140.72 per share

- 2025-05: $165.53 per share

- 2025-06: $218.63 per share

- 2025-07: $253.77 per share

- 2025-08: $226.13 per share

- 2025-09: $281.24 per share

- 2025-10: $262.61 per share

- 2025-11: $201.95 per share

- 2025-12: $194.91 per share

- 2026-01: $164.58 per share

- 2026-02: $145.40 per share

- 2026-03: $147.11 per share

- 2026-04: $161.39 per share

- 2026-05: $225.78 per share

- 2026-06: $146.55 per share

- 2026-07: $129.87 per share

- 2026-08: $149.12 per share

- 2026-09: $137.30 per share

- 2026-10: $143.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $45.93 per share, central $50.19 per share, high $55.86 per share

- FY2018: low $47.46 per share, central $54.72 per share, high $61.25 per share

- FY2019: low $48.33 per share, central $60.63 per share, high $69.29 per share

- FY2020: low $54.92 per share, central $67.16 per share, high $76.38 per share

- FY2021: low $65.09 per share, central $81.34 per share, high $92.94 per share

- FY2022: low $56.73 per share, central $63.52 per share, high $72.54 per share

- FY2023: low $60.59 per share, central $68.63 per share, high $79.33 per share

- FY2024: low $43.93 per share, central $49.52 per share, high $56.95 per share

- FY2025: low $40.26 per share, central $50.45 per share, high $58.35 per share

- FY2026: low $50.85 per share, central $65.87 per share, high $75.42 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:41.694Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm); period 2026-05-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.