# Origin Energy (ORG.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ORG.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 11.91 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 6.41 per share, central AUD 7.24 per share, high AUD 8.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 7.24 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.1% at the stated quote. About 7.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.60×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: -0.03×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 7.8%

- FY2019: 3.6%

- FY2020: 4.0%

- FY2021: 3.2%

- FY2022: -3.0%

- FY2023: 8.1%

- FY2024: 7.0%

- FY2025: 7.8%

- FY2026: 10.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.62×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 2.5B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 4.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 89.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.95×

- FY2024: 0.87×

- FY2025: 0.46×

- FY2026: 0.66×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.6% vs 7.8%

- Per-share earnings: -0.36 to 0.86 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: AUD 6.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD -4.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: AUD 1.22

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.36

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.86

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 5.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 1.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD -1.26

- FY2018: AUD 0.12

- FY2019: AUD 0.69

- FY2020: AUD 0.05

- FY2021: AUD -1.30

- FY2022: AUD -0.83

- FY2023: AUD 0.61

- FY2024: AUD 0.81

- FY2025: AUD 0.86

- FY2026: AUD 0.91

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.67×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.26×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -13.9%

- FY2018: -3.7%

- FY2019: -0.4%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: -15.2%

- FY2022: -8.2%

- FY2023: 8.9%

- FY2024: 1.4%

- FY2025: 5.0%

- FY2026: -5.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.4% a year for ten years · "Origin Energy Flags Lower LNG Revenue and Cuts Octopus Earnings Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales -9.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.198Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.4% a year for ten years

- 2026-04-27: Origin Energy Flags Lower LNG Revenue and Cuts Octopus Earnings Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/origin-energy-flags-lower-lng-002629040.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -9.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 14B 

- FY2018: AUD 15B 

- FY2019: AUD 15B 

- FY2020: AUD 13B 

- FY2021: AUD 12B 

- FY2022: AUD 14B 

- FY2023: AUD 16B 

- FY2024: AUD 16B 

- FY2025: AUD 17B 

- FY2026: AUD 15B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 13.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 18.7% 

- FY2018: 20.0% 

- FY2019: 16.8% 

- FY2020: 17.0% 

- FY2021: 13.6% 

- FY2022: 6.9% 

- FY2023: 12.0% 

- FY2024: 19.7% 

- FY2025: 19.2% 

- FY2026: 13.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities diversified; annual sales are AUD 15.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2026: revenue 15428000000; grossProfit 2040000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORG.AU: Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Cooper-Eromanga basins in Queensland. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, and solar; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; and provides GreenPower products. In addition, it sells, installs, repairs, and maintains solar photovoltaic systems and battery solutions; and offers internet products and services to residential and business customers. Further, the company engages in the e-mobility business. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 13.2% to 19.7% during 2024–26; it earns 5.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 13.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04608023654324306],[2018,0.07762920130104807],[2019,0.035546435014901866],[2020,0.04036629472874182],[2021,0.03169243627246134],[2022,-0.03019513176423255],[2023,0.08067131178041494],[2024,0.06999031090482505],[2025,0.07758852504510999],[2026,0.10731458246044011]]; median 0.05803527372403405. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back AUD 109 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 325000000; owner earnings 278000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 208000000; owner earnings 1423600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 375000000; owner earnings 116200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 475000000; owner earnings 1007000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 608000000; owner earnings 1220800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2025: growth capex 282793368.537941; upkeep 1190206631.462059; owner earnings 685993368.537941. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.41223921616131515.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 902000000; owner earnings 1035000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,2000000],[2018,2000000],[2019,165000000],[2020,478000000],[2021,343000000],[2022,314000000],[2023,576000000],[2024,819000000],[2025,991000000],[2026,971000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 109000000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORG.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.522 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:14.815Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0936775257547986. Price 11.91; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.3581090019935495 → FY2026 0.5995335107952525. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 5.35 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 5.94 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 6.59 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 7.09 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 6.56 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 7.05 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 7.18 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 7.70 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 6.86 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 6.92 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 7.65 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 7.48 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 7.94 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 8.93 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 9.42 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 9.34 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 9.05 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 8.70 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 9.75 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 9.60 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 10.03 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 9.77 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 7.95 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 8.26 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 7.29 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 6.48 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 6.47 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 7.16 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 7.36 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 7.20 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 7.37 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 7.18 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 7.31 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 7.94 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 7.63 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 7.97 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 7.86 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 8.70 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 8.45 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 8.20 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 6.98 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 4.38 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 5.56 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 5.89 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 5.84 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 5.37 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 5.60 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 4.30 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 4.00 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 5.18 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 4.76 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 4.74 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 4.69 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 4.16 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 3.97 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 4.51 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 4.11 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 4.45 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 4.73 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 5.05 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 4.80 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 5.24 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 5.62 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 5.70 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 6.23 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 6.84 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 6.85 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 5.73 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 5.94 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 6.31 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 5.17 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 5.57 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 7.86 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 7.72 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 7.47 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 8.01 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 8.29 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 8.34 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 8.33 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 8.41 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 8.47 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 8.71 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 8.78 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 9.13 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 8.24 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 8.47 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 8.52 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 8.99 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 9.20 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 9.75 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 10.19 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 10.86 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 10.49 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 9.96 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 10.01 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 9.63 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 10.87 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 10.90 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 10.45 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 10.94 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 10.53 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 10.64 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 10.82 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 10.79 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 11.67 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 12.92 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 12.50 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 12.25 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 11.68 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 11.49 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 11.80 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 12.15 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 12.38 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 12.10 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 10.87 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 10.98 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 10.76 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 11.62 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 10.98 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 11.55 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2020: low AUD 1.55 per share, central AUD 1.65 per share, high AUD 1.78 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 1.08 per share, central AUD 1.17 per share, high AUD 1.30 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 1.51 per share, central AUD 1.62 per share, high AUD 1.77 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 1.28 per share, central AUD 1.41 per share, high AUD 1.58 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 1.52 per share, central AUD 1.65 per share, high AUD 1.82 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 4.79 per share, central AUD 5.45 per share, high AUD 6.27 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 6.41 per share, central AUD 7.24 per share, high AUD 8.34 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.