# O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ORLY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:57.729Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $88.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $49.47 per share, central $72.17 per share, high $84.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value $72.17 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:57.729Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.19×

- FY2020: 0.21×

- FY2021: 0.22×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 44.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 37.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 51.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 32.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 42.7%

- FY2018: 48.4%

- FY2019: 28.3%

- FY2020: 37.8%

- FY2021: 50.0%

- FY2022: 51.2%

- FY2023: 50.5%

- FY2024: 46.4%

- FY2025: 41.2%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 43.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $11B

- Net income, five-year total: $12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 74.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -5.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.94×

- FY2025: 0.94×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 42.8% vs 46.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.72 to 2.71 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.2%

- Market cap gain: $51B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$2.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 18.1%

- Per-share value change: $2.00

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.72

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.71

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.78

- Average buyback yield: 5.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $260M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $18B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 42.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 46.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.72

- FY2017: $0.84

- FY2018: $1.07

- FY2019: $1.19

- FY2020: $1.57

- FY2021: $2.07

- FY2022: $2.23

- FY2023: $2.56

- FY2024: $2.71

- FY2025: $2.97

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.09×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.6%

- FY2017: -3.6%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -9.4%

- FY2021: -8.9%

- FY2022: -7.7%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -4.5%

- FY2025: -1.4%

## Holders

- [Chuck Akre](https://gigainvestors.com/AC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10% a year for ten years · sales +4.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:20.694Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-26: ORLY Q1 Earnings Call: Margins Face Tariff Uncertainty as O’Reilly Maintains Growth Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/orly-q1-earnings-call-margins-220004435.html))

- 2025-07-24: O'Reilly Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, '25 Revenue Outlook Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oreilly-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-151600442.html))

- 2026-03-01: Did Softer 2026 Guidance Amid Cost Inflation Just Shift O'Reilly Automotive's (ORLY) Investment Narrative? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/did-softer-2026-guidance-amid-011205267.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898173/000089817326000009/orly-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $9.0B 

- FY2018: $9.5B 

- FY2019: $10B 

- FY2020: $12B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $14B 

- FY2023: $16B 

- FY2024: $17B 

- FY2025: $18B 

- FY2026: $19B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 51.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898173/000089817326000009/orly-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: 52.6% 

- FY2018: 52.8% 

- FY2019: 53.1% 

- FY2020: 52.4% 

- FY2021: 52.7% 

- FY2022: 51.2% 

- FY2023: 51.3% 

- FY2024: 51.2% 

- FY2025: 51.6% 

- FY2026: 51.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are USD 17.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898173/000089817326000009/orly-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 17781992000; grossProfit 9174141000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORLY.US: O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company offers enhanced services and programs consisting of used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; referrals to trusted local repair shops; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. It offers its products to do-it-yourself and professional service providers for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. It offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brand names. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 51.2% to 51.6% during 2023–25; it earns 44.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 51.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898173/000089817326000009/orly-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 51.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.42719289819141865],[2018,0.4839906613995511],[2019,0.28281562488560746],[2020,0.3777869978901933],[2021,0.500085293761998],[2022,0.5120018986934514],[2023,0.5052739403467419],[2024,0.4641990707381996],[2025,0.41160534389408415],[2026,0.4334764182968165]]; median 0.448837744517508. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 51% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898173/000089817326000009/orly-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5267241280345102],[2022,0.51226771113668],[2023,0.5125648152539961]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 21.1% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 74.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 227209380.88575357; upkeep 249134619.11424643; owner earnings 1006422380.8857536. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22575946759628526.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 140641391.17593074; upkeep 325298608.82406926; owner earnings 1042350391.1759307. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13492717263459336.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 205567302.34056073; upkeep 298700697.65943927; owner earnings 1284723302.3405607. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1600090089173676.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 251587618.77181756; upkeep 376469381.22818244; owner earnings 1285447618.7718177. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19571985283398574.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 150944000; upkeep 314635000; owner earnings 1752302000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0861404027387973.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 114636000; upkeep 328217000; owner earnings 2164685000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.052957358691911295.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 205409000; upkeep 357933000; owner earnings 2172650000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09454306952339309.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 597203000; upkeep 409061000; owner earnings 2346581000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.254499205439744.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 425818987.17856336; upkeep 597568012.8214366; owner earnings 2251003987.178563. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18916847309199583.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898173/000089817326000009/orly-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 501798903.29585946; upkeep 667016096.7041405; owner earnings 2382422903.2958593. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21062545302165606.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Incremental return on capital 0.7449890905398545, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,3849800000],[2018,2912660000],[2019,3207955000],[2020,2159515000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,5000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898173/000089817326000009/orly-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 2096962000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORLY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.504 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 16.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17174832562004433. Price 88.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.6115517728260799 → FY2025 2.7834677151644716. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $17.63 per share

- 2016-11: $18.30 per share

- 2016-12: $18.56 per share

- 2017-01: $17.48 per share

- 2017-02: $18.11 per share

- 2017-03: $17.99 per share

- 2017-04: $16.54 per share

- 2017-05: $16.14 per share

- 2017-06: $14.58 per share

- 2017-07: $13.62 per share

- 2017-08: $13.08 per share

- 2017-09: $14.36 per share

- 2017-10: $14.06 per share

- 2017-11: $15.75 per share

- 2017-12: $16.04 per share

- 2018-01: $17.65 per share

- 2018-02: $16.28 per share

- 2018-03: $16.49 per share

- 2018-04: $17.07 per share

- 2018-05: $17.96 per share

- 2018-06: $18.24 per share

- 2018-07: $20.40 per share

- 2018-08: $22.36 per share

- 2018-09: $23.15 per share

- 2018-10: $21.38 per share

- 2018-11: $23.12 per share

- 2018-12: $22.96 per share

- 2019-01: $22.98 per share

- 2019-02: $24.80 per share

- 2019-03: $25.89 per share

- 2019-04: $25.24 per share

- 2019-05: $24.76 per share

- 2019-06: $24.62 per share

- 2019-07: $25.38 per share

- 2019-08: $25.58 per share

- 2019-09: $26.57 per share

- 2019-10: $29.03 per share

- 2019-11: $29.49 per share

- 2019-12: $29.22 per share

- 2020-01: $27.07 per share

- 2020-02: $24.58 per share

- 2020-03: $20.07 per share

- 2020-04: $25.76 per share

- 2020-05: $27.82 per share

- 2020-06: $28.11 per share

- 2020-07: $31.83 per share

- 2020-08: $31.04 per share

- 2020-09: $30.74 per share

- 2020-10: $29.11 per share

- 2020-11: $29.50 per share

- 2020-12: $30.17 per share

- 2021-01: $28.36 per share

- 2021-02: $29.82 per share

- 2021-03: $33.82 per share

- 2021-04: $36.86 per share

- 2021-05: $35.67 per share

- 2021-06: $37.75 per share

- 2021-07: $40.26 per share

- 2021-08: $39.61 per share

- 2021-09: $40.74 per share

- 2021-10: $41.49 per share

- 2021-11: $42.54 per share

- 2021-12: $47.08 per share

- 2022-01: $43.45 per share

- 2022-02: $43.28 per share

- 2022-03: $45.66 per share

- 2022-04: $40.44 per share

- 2022-05: $42.48 per share

- 2022-06: $42.12 per share

- 2022-07: $46.91 per share

- 2022-08: $46.47 per share

- 2022-09: $46.89 per share

- 2022-10: $55.81 per share

- 2022-11: $57.64 per share

- 2022-12: $56.27 per share

- 2023-01: $52.82 per share

- 2023-02: $55.34 per share

- 2023-03: $56.60 per share

- 2023-04: $61.15 per share

- 2023-05: $60.22 per share

- 2023-06: $63.69 per share

- 2023-07: $61.72 per share

- 2023-08: $62.65 per share

- 2023-09: $60.59 per share

- 2023-10: $62.03 per share

- 2023-11: $65.49 per share

- 2023-12: $63.34 per share

- 2024-01: $68.20 per share

- 2024-02: $72.49 per share

- 2024-03: $75.26 per share

- 2024-04: $67.55 per share

- 2024-05: $64.22 per share

- 2024-06: $70.40 per share

- 2024-07: $75.09 per share

- 2024-08: $75.33 per share

- 2024-09: $76.77 per share

- 2024-10: $76.88 per share

- 2024-11: $82.88 per share

- 2024-12: $79.05 per share

- 2025-01: $86.29 per share

- 2025-02: $91.58 per share

- 2025-03: $95.51 per share

- 2025-04: $94.35 per share

- 2025-05: $91.17 per share

- 2025-06: $90.13 per share

- 2025-07: $98.32 per share

- 2025-08: $103.68 per share

- 2025-09: $107.81 per share

- 2025-10: $94.44 per share

- 2025-11: $101.70 per share

- 2025-12: $91.21 per share

- 2026-01: $98.41 per share

- 2026-02: $93.88 per share

- 2026-03: $92.31 per share

- 2026-04: $99.40 per share

- 2026-05: $86.88 per share

- 2026-06: $92.09 per share

- 2026-07: $89.35 per share

- 2026-08: $88.80 per share

- 2026-09: $85.41 per share

- 2026-10: $86.03 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $8.91 per share, central $13.00 per share, high $15.28 per share

- FY2017: low $11.27 per share, central $16.45 per share, high $19.33 per share

- FY2018: low $13.11 per share, central $19.13 per share, high $22.49 per share

- FY2019: low $14.79 per share, central $21.58 per share, high $25.37 per share

- FY2020: low $19.32 per share, central $28.08 per share, high $32.97 per share

- FY2021: low $25.06 per share, central $36.51 per share, high $42.90 per share

- FY2022: low $32.38 per share, central $47.23 per share, high $55.51 per share

- FY2023: low $37.84 per share, central $55.19 per share, high $64.87 per share

- FY2024: low $41.54 per share, central $60.60 per share, high $71.23 per share

- FY2025: low $44.77 per share, central $65.31 per share, high $76.76 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:42.596Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898173/000089817326000009/orly-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.