# Octave Specialty Group (OSG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/OSG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:58.101Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $4.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- positive earnings in fewer than 8 of 10 years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 4

- Required profitable years: 8

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $75M

- FY2017: -$329M

- FY2018: $267M

- FY2019: -$216M

- FY2020: -$437M

- FY2021: -$28M

- FY2022: $522M

- FY2023: $3.6M

- FY2024: -$556M

- FY2025: -$262M

### moat: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: -8.7%

- Required median return: 10.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: No

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: -40.5%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.4%

- FY2017: -23.8%

- FY2018: 16.8%

- FY2019: -14.6%

- FY2020: -40.5%

- FY2021: -2.7%

- FY2022: 41.7%

- FY2023: 0.3%

- FY2024: -69.7%

- FY2025: -36.6%

### economics: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: -8.4%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $37.28

- Ending book value per share: $15.17

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.2%

- FY2017: -21.5%

- FY2018: 15.3%

- FY2019: -6.0%

- FY2020: -27.2%

- FY2021: -4.7%

- FY2022: 22.8%

- FY2023: 9.0%

- FY2024: -43.0%

- FY2025: -10.7%

### management: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book per share gain below retained common earnings per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0.4%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0.4%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book value created per share: -$22.11

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: -$25.28

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 74% since May 2024 · net income USD -261.7M

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:20.810Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Net income · FY2025

net income USD -261.7M; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874501/000162828026014653/ambc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: $75M 

- FY2017: -$329M 

- FY2018: $267M 

- FY2019: -$216M 

- FY2020: -$437M 

- FY2021: -$28M 

- FY2022: $522M 

- FY2023: $3.6M 

- FY2024: -$556M 

- FY2025: -$262M 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance specialty; annual sales are USD 251.2 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874501/000162828026014653/ambc-20251231.htm#000162828026014653 (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: revenue 251222000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); OSG.US: Octave Specialty Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, primarily engages in the specialty property and casualty insurance business in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance; and Insurance Distribution. The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment provides specialty property and casualty program insurance with a focus on commercial and personal liability risks. The Insurance Distribution segment offers property, niche specialty risk, accident and health, miscellaneous specialty, reinsurance, surety, marine and energy, specialty auto, excess and surplus lines commercial package, professional lines, and directors' and officers' insurance. The company was formerly known as Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Octave Specialty Group, Inc. in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

It lost 8.7% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.043667885319800176],[2017,-0.2382076359666017],[2018,0.16771388388294703],[2019,-0.14624238320920785],[2020,-0.4046296296296296],[2021,-0.02697495183044316],[2022,0.4172364217252396],[2023,0.002667340356154565],[2024,-0.6969865875715839],[2025,-0.3655988488243759]]; median -0.0866086675198255. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 10 years; bought back USD 29.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,31910000],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874501/000162828026014653/ambc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 29942000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 7.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); OSG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.9079999999999995 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price is 0.9 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Closing price 4.6 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 5.3246177764728335; price multiple 0.8639117760387226. FY2025 cash earnings/share -4.217016229781391. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $18.45 per share

- 2016-11: $24.50 per share

- 2016-12: $22.50 per share

- 2017-01: $20.92 per share

- 2017-02: $22.10 per share

- 2017-03: $18.86 per share

- 2017-04: $19.43 per share

- 2017-05: $16.52 per share

- 2017-06: $17.35 per share

- 2017-07: $20.43 per share

- 2017-08: $18.19 per share

- 2017-09: $17.26 per share

- 2017-10: $16.28 per share

- 2017-11: $15.06 per share

- 2017-12: $15.98 per share

- 2018-01: $16.20 per share

- 2018-02: $15.15 per share

- 2018-03: $15.68 per share

- 2018-04: $17.03 per share

- 2018-05: $18.53 per share

- 2018-06: $19.85 per share

- 2018-07: $20.42 per share

- 2018-08: $21.13 per share

- 2018-09: $20.42 per share

- 2018-10: $20.58 per share

- 2018-11: $17.48 per share

- 2018-12: $17.24 per share

- 2019-01: $18.92 per share

- 2019-02: $19.77 per share

- 2019-03: $18.12 per share

- 2019-04: $18.70 per share

- 2019-05: $15.20 per share

- 2019-06: $16.85 per share

- 2019-07: $18.22 per share

- 2019-08: $18.04 per share

- 2019-09: $19.55 per share

- 2019-10: $20.50 per share

- 2019-11: $20.82 per share

- 2019-12: $21.57 per share

- 2020-01: $21.43 per share

- 2020-02: $19.22 per share

- 2020-03: $12.34 per share

- 2020-04: $17.20 per share

- 2020-05: $13.42 per share

- 2020-06: $14.32 per share

- 2020-07: $12.80 per share

- 2020-08: $12.63 per share

- 2020-09: $12.77 per share

- 2020-10: $12.28 per share

- 2020-11: $14.64 per share

- 2020-12: $15.38 per share

- 2021-01: $14.42 per share

- 2021-02: $16.95 per share

- 2021-03: $16.74 per share

- 2021-04: $17.15 per share

- 2021-05: $15.09 per share

- 2021-06: $15.66 per share

- 2021-07: $14.52 per share

- 2021-08: $14.09 per share

- 2021-09: $14.32 per share

- 2021-10: $16.91 per share

- 2021-11: $14.94 per share

- 2021-12: $16.05 per share

- 2022-01: $14.17 per share

- 2022-02: $12.83 per share

- 2022-03: $10.40 per share

- 2022-04: $7.73 per share

- 2022-05: $10.71 per share

- 2022-06: $11.35 per share

- 2022-07: $11.77 per share

- 2022-08: $15.09 per share

- 2022-09: $12.75 per share

- 2022-10: $14.05 per share

- 2022-11: $16.26 per share

- 2022-12: $17.44 per share

- 2023-01: $16.66 per share

- 2023-02: $16.55 per share

- 2023-03: $15.48 per share

- 2023-04: $15.95 per share

- 2023-05: $13.93 per share

- 2023-06: $14.24 per share

- 2023-07: $14.14 per share

- 2023-08: $12.88 per share

- 2023-09: $12.06 per share

- 2023-10: $12.13 per share

- 2023-11: $14.75 per share

- 2023-12: $16.48 per share

- 2024-01: $16.25 per share

- 2024-02: $16.36 per share

- 2024-03: $15.63 per share

- 2024-04: $14.45 per share

- 2024-05: $17.72 per share

- 2024-06: $12.82 per share

- 2024-07: $13.19 per share

- 2024-08: $11.70 per share

- 2024-09: $11.21 per share

- 2024-10: $11.31 per share

- 2024-11: $12.84 per share

- 2024-12: $12.65 per share

- 2025-01: $11.63 per share

- 2025-02: $9.71 per share

- 2025-03: $8.75 per share

- 2025-04: $7.98 per share

- 2025-05: $7.83 per share

- 2025-06: $7.10 per share

- 2025-07: $8.40 per share

- 2025-08: $9.03 per share

- 2025-09: $8.34 per share

- 2025-10: $8.21 per share

- 2025-11: $8.99 per share

- 2025-12: $7.78 per share

- 2026-01: $5.67 per share

- 2026-02: $5.35 per share

- 2026-03: $4.65 per share

- 2026-04: $4.43 per share

- 2026-05: $5.48 per share

- 2026-06: $6.24 per share

- 2026-07: $5.40 per share

- 2026-08: $4.36 per share

- 2026-09: $4.14 per share

- 2026-10: $4.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $16.97 per share, central $18.67 per share, high $20.74 per share

- FY2019: low $10.34 per share, central $11.37 per share, high $12.64 per share

- FY2020: low $6.13 per share, central $6.74 per share, high $7.49 per share

- FY2021: low $6.13 per share, central $6.74 per share, high $7.49 per share

- FY2022: low $35.46 per share, central $39.01 per share, high $43.34 per share

- FY2023: low $12.56 per share, central $13.82 per share, high $15.35 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874501/000162828026014653/ambc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.