# Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/OXY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:00.997Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $60.67 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $51.07 per share, central $57.61 per share, high $66.31 per share. Buy at or below the central value $57.61 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:00.997Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.6% at the stated quote. About 9.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.10×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: -0.11×

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.37×

- FY2023: 0.23×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 28.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.8%

- FY2017: 3.6%

- FY2018: 7.5%

- FY2019: 1.2%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: 7.3%

- FY2022: 25.1%

- FY2023: 9.7%

- FY2024: 5.7%

- FY2025: 4.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.38×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $35B

- Net income, five-year total: $26B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 3.51×

- FY2022: 1.19×

- FY2023: 1.04×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 1.47×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.6% vs 5.7%

- Per-share earnings: -0.75 to 3.15 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Market cap gain: -$23B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $3.90

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.75

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.15

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.38

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $15B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.75

- FY2017: $1.70

- FY2018: $5.39

- FY2019: -$0.82

- FY2020: -$16.14

- FY2021: $2.41

- FY2022: $13.19

- FY2023: $4.86

- FY2024: $3.15

- FY2025: $2.37

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.80×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.45×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.2%

- FY2017: -8.5%

- FY2018: -8.1%

- FY2019: -7.3%

- FY2020: -23.3%

- FY2021: -10.6%

- FY2022: -4.9%

- FY2023: -10.3%

- FY2024: -9.8%

- FY2025: -9.4%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 2% since Oct 2023 · "Oil Price Softness and CEO Transition Weigh on Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) Quarterly Results" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -1.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:21.348Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-14: Occidental Petroleum says Q2 U.S. Gulf production hit by curtailments ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4467155-occidental-petroleum-says-q2-us-gulf-production-hit-by-curtailments?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-02: Occidental plunges as OxyChem sale draws analyst criticism over timing, price ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4501481-occidental-plunges-as-oxychem-sale-draws-analyst-criticism-over-timing-price?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-19: Occidental Cuts Debt and Lifts Dividend After OxyChem Sale ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/occidental-cuts-debt-lifts-dividend-012135469.html))

- 2026-03-04: Occidental Refocuses On Oil Gas As OxyChem Sale Reshapes Valuation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/occidental-refocuses-oil-gas-oxychem-170636259.html))

- 2026-08-06: Occidental Stock Jumps 5% as Cash Funds $1.9 Billion Debt Cut ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/occidental-stock-jumps-5-cash-203411644.html))

- 2026-09-30: Oil Price Softness and CEO Transition Weigh on Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) Quarterly Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/oil-price-softness-ceo-transition-111835551.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000162828026009059/oxy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: $10B 

- FY2017: $12B 

- FY2018: $16B 

- FY2019: $19B 

- FY2020: $17B 

- FY2021: $26B 

- FY2022: $36B 

- FY2023: $28B 

- FY2024: $22B 

- FY2025: $22B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 33.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000162828026009059/oxy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 5.7% 

- FY2017: 22.3% 

- FY2018: 31.6% 

- FY2019: 23.1% 

- FY2020: 2.6% 

- FY2021: 29.3% 

- FY2022: 47.0% 

- FY2023: 34.4% 

- FY2024: 36.4% 

- FY2025: 33.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 21.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000162828026009059/oxy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 21593000000; grossProfit 7294000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.8% to 36.4% during 2023–25; it earns 5.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 34.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 36.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000162828026009059/oxy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.028032871436921913],[2017,0.0359787363740677],[2018,0.07517250382970796],[2019,0.011935631264814233],[2020,-0.02829180900044557],[2021,0.07335474126463612],[2022,0.25105227181333045],[2023,0.09658418023069855],[2024,0.057233476822386754],[2025,0.044179006680785164]]; median 0.05070624175158596. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2831000000; owner earnings 896000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 3599000000; owner earnings 1759000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 942000000; upkeep 4033000000; owner earnings 4114000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2289742343218279.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2773000000; owner earnings 8111000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 4350000000; owner earnings 15797000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6245000000; owner earnings 4877000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 7018000000; owner earnings 2976000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000162828026009059/oxy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 6427000000; owner earnings 3475000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,2309000000],[2017,2346000000],[2018,2374000000],[2019,2624000000],[2020,1845000000],[2021,839000000],[2022,1184000000],[2023,1365000000],[2024,1446000000],[2025,1594000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

"Volatile global and local commodity pricing strongly affects the Company’s results of operations." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000162828026009059/oxy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Volatile global and local commodity pricing strongly affects the Company’s results of operations.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.009831275019536734. Price 60.67; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -11.163793103448276 → FY2025 3.474652534746525. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $72.91 per share

- 2016-11: $71.36 per share

- 2016-12: $71.23 per share

- 2017-01: $67.77 per share

- 2017-02: $65.55 per share

- 2017-03: $63.36 per share

- 2017-04: $61.54 per share

- 2017-05: $58.93 per share

- 2017-06: $59.87 per share

- 2017-07: $61.93 per share

- 2017-08: $59.70 per share

- 2017-09: $64.21 per share

- 2017-10: $64.57 per share

- 2017-11: $70.50 per share

- 2017-12: $73.66 per share

- 2018-01: $74.97 per share

- 2018-02: $65.60 per share

- 2018-03: $64.96 per share

- 2018-04: $77.26 per share

- 2018-05: $84.20 per share

- 2018-06: $83.68 per share

- 2018-07: $83.93 per share

- 2018-08: $79.87 per share

- 2018-09: $82.17 per share

- 2018-10: $67.07 per share

- 2018-11: $70.27 per share

- 2018-12: $61.38 per share

- 2019-01: $66.78 per share

- 2019-02: $66.15 per share

- 2019-03: $66.20 per share

- 2019-04: $58.88 per share

- 2019-05: $49.77 per share

- 2019-06: $50.28 per share

- 2019-07: $51.36 per share

- 2019-08: $43.48 per share

- 2019-09: $44.47 per share

- 2019-10: $40.50 per share

- 2019-11: $38.57 per share

- 2019-12: $41.21 per share

- 2020-01: $39.72 per share

- 2020-02: $32.74 per share

- 2020-03: $11.58 per share

- 2020-04: $16.60 per share

- 2020-05: $12.95 per share

- 2020-06: $18.30 per share

- 2020-07: $15.74 per share

- 2020-08: $12.74 per share

- 2020-09: $10.01 per share

- 2020-10: $9.13 per share

- 2020-11: $15.76 per share

- 2020-12: $17.31 per share

- 2021-01: $20.06 per share

- 2021-02: $26.61 per share

- 2021-03: $26.62 per share

- 2021-04: $25.36 per share

- 2021-05: $25.96 per share

- 2021-06: $31.27 per share

- 2021-07: $26.10 per share

- 2021-08: $25.69 per share

- 2021-09: $29.58 per share

- 2021-10: $33.53 per share

- 2021-11: $29.65 per share

- 2021-12: $28.99 per share

- 2022-01: $37.67 per share

- 2022-02: $43.73 per share

- 2022-03: $56.74 per share

- 2022-04: $55.09 per share

- 2022-05: $69.31 per share

- 2022-06: $58.88 per share

- 2022-07: $65.75 per share

- 2022-08: $71.00 per share

- 2022-09: $61.45 per share

- 2022-10: $72.60 per share

- 2022-11: $69.49 per share

- 2022-12: $62.99 per share

- 2023-01: $64.79 per share

- 2023-02: $58.56 per share

- 2023-03: $62.43 per share

- 2023-04: $61.53 per share

- 2023-05: $57.66 per share

- 2023-06: $58.80 per share

- 2023-07: $63.13 per share

- 2023-08: $62.79 per share

- 2023-09: $64.88 per share

- 2023-10: $61.81 per share

- 2023-11: $59.15 per share

- 2023-12: $59.71 per share

- 2024-01: $57.57 per share

- 2024-02: $60.61 per share

- 2024-03: $64.99 per share

- 2024-04: $66.14 per share

- 2024-05: $62.50 per share

- 2024-06: $63.03 per share

- 2024-07: $60.82 per share

- 2024-08: $56.98 per share

- 2024-09: $51.54 per share

- 2024-10: $50.11 per share

- 2024-11: $50.58 per share

- 2024-12: $49.41 per share

- 2025-01: $46.65 per share

- 2025-02: $48.84 per share

- 2025-03: $49.36 per share

- 2025-04: $39.41 per share

- 2025-05: $40.78 per share

- 2025-06: $42.01 per share

- 2025-07: $43.94 per share

- 2025-08: $47.61 per share

- 2025-09: $47.25 per share

- 2025-10: $41.20 per share

- 2025-11: $42.00 per share

- 2025-12: $41.12 per share

- 2026-01: $45.39 per share

- 2026-02: $53.08 per share

- 2026-03: $65.00 per share

- 2026-04: $60.58 per share

- 2026-05: $56.63 per share

- 2026-06: $48.57 per share

- 2026-07: $57.07 per share

- 2026-08: $60.18 per share

- 2026-09: $55.32 per share

- 2026-10: $61.65 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $17.64 per share, central $19.82 per share, high $22.72 per share

- FY2018: low $23.36 per share, central $26.09 per share, high $29.72 per share

- FY2019: low $26.31 per share, central $29.48 per share, high $33.71 per share

- FY2020: low $19.91 per share, central $22.41 per share, high $25.73 per share

- FY2021: low $44.12 per share, central $49.88 per share, high $57.55 per share

- FY2022: low $104.75 per share, central $119.16 per share, high $138.34 per share

- FY2023: low $56.37 per share, central $64.02 per share, high $74.20 per share

- FY2024: low $44.59 per share, central $50.50 per share, high $58.36 per share

- FY2025: low $42.16 per share, central $47.76 per share, high $55.22 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000162828026009059/oxy-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.