# Paragon Banking Group (PAG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PAG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:38.565Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 709.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.57×

- FY2017: 0.55×

- FY2018: 0.57×

- FY2019: 0.52×

- FY2020: 0.39×

- FY2021: 0.60×

- FY2022: 0.54×

- FY2023: 0.44×

- FY2024: 0.51×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 63.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 63.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 100.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 36.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.1%

- FY2017: 1.5%

- FY2018: 2.2%

- FY2019: 2.4%

- FY2020: 2.7%

- FY2021: 4.0%

- FY2022: 9.4%

- FY2023: 11.4%

- FY2024: 7.6%

- FY2025: 31.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 1.0B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 998M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 46.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 253.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -253.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.08×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.5% vs 11.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.40 to 0.85 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP 566M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 377M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.7%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.45

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.40

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.85

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.35

- Average buyback yield: 5.1%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 169M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.40

- FY2017: GBP 0.42

- FY2018: GBP 0.54

- FY2019: GBP 0.48

- FY2020: GBP 0.36

- FY2021: GBP 0.63

- FY2022: GBP 1.26

- FY2023: GBP 0.66

- FY2024: GBP 0.85

- FY2025: GBP 0.88

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.56×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.83×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.5%

- FY2017: -9.9%

- FY2018: -6.4%

- FY2019: -1.9%

- FY2020: -6.0%

- FY2021: -4.7%

- FY2022: -5.1%

- FY2023: -11.0%

- FY2024: -10.5%

- FY2025: -0.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 25% since Jun 2025 · sales +147.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.035Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +147.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72-2025-09-30/reports/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-01-27.

- FY2016: GBP 253M 

- FY2017: GBP 264M 

- FY2018: GBP 316M 

- FY2019: GBP 307M 

- FY2020: GBP 310M 

- FY2021: GBP 355M 

- FY2022: GBP 779M 

- FY2023: GBP 455M 

- FY2024: GBP 501M 

- FY2025: GBP 1.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 36.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72-2025-09-30/reports/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-01-27.

- FY2018: 99.6% 

- FY2022: 77.6% 

- FY2025: 36.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in mortgage finance; annual sales are GBP 1.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2025-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2025: revenue 1241000000; grossProfit 452400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PAG.LSE: Paragon Banking Group PLC provides financial products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Mortgage Lending and Commercial Lending. The Mortgage Lending segment offers buy-to-let mortgages, and owner-occupied first and second charge lending. The Commercial Lending segment comprises equipment leasing, development finance, structured lending, and other offerings for SME customers, as well as motor finance business. This segment also provides hire purchase, business loans, and operating and finance leasing. In addition, it offers a range of savings products; and deposits taking, residential mortgages, loan and vehicle finance, surveyors and property consulting, contract hire, asset administration, asset and development finance, consumer loan finance, and asset investment services, as well as acts as an asset finance broker. The company was formerly known as The Paragon Group of Companies PLC and changed its name to Paragon Banking Group PLC in September 2017. Paragon Banking Group PLC was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Solihull, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.5% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 3.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2023-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2024-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2025-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.010596478956376667],[2017,0.015382690694512742],[2018,0.022099887553267805],[2019,0.023712913673081933],[2020,0.02700297180570322],[2021,0.03959466615317961],[2022,0.0939428434485651],[2023,0.11410142348754448],[2024,0.07645825625847823],[2025,0.3138381201044386]]; median 0.03329881897944141. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 132.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2016-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2900000; owner earnings 116600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2017-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2600000; owner earnings 118100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2018-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2300000; owner earnings 153400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2019-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3100000; owner earnings 135800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2020-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2900000; owner earnings 102200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2021-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 4300000; owner earnings 166500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2022-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 3000000; owner earnings 316100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2023-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3200000; owner earnings 158300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2024-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 900000; owner earnings 191700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2025-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1300000; owner earnings 194800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,33900000],[2017,38000000],[2018,43100000],[2019,54000000],[2020,35900000],[2021,54600000],[2022,68900000],[2023,67900000],[2024,83500000],[2025,81000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAG.LSE.json#2025-09-30 (filed 2026-01-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 132400000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PAG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.656 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 1.2 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-27); Closing price 709.5 GBX; reporting-to-trading FX 100; FY2025 annual sales per share 6.0477582846003894; price multiple 1.1731619661563255. FY2025 cash earnings/share 0.949317738791423. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 331.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 365.40 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 414.80 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 403.80 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 424.10 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 417.80 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 467.40 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 456.20 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 427.20 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 433.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 409.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 439.40 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 475.20 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 483.80 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 490.70 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 493.20 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 487.80 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 470.40 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 523.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 484.40 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 479.60 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 498.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 465.40 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 478.80 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 425.60 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 420.20 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 386.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 414.80 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 434.40 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 435.80 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 458.60 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 434.80 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 438.80 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 417.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 436.20 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 482.40 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 503.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 497.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 539.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 508.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 455.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 332.40 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 333.60 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 354.20 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 350.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 314.20 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 356.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 333.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 295.20 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 403.60 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 488.60 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 453.60 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 449.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 457.60 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 470.40 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 485.60 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 509.50 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 552.50 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 562.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 545.50 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 548.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 517.50 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 566.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 569.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 505.50 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 500.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 496.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 491.80 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 489.40 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 535.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 537.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 394.80 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 428.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 469.60 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 563.50 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 601.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 596.50 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 520.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 502.50 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 485.40 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 531.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 528.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 526.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 492.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 443.60 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 482.60 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 697.50 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 704.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 644.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 690.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 715.50 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 764.50 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 735.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 804.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 767.50 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 777.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 686.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 757.50 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 743.50 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 803.50 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 756.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 736.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 843.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 903.50 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 943.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 905.50 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 869.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 867.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 829.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 842.50 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 854.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 888.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 855.50 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 719.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 748.50 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 766.50 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 767.50 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 837.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 797.50 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 742.50 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 709.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:47:26.378Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72-2025-09-30/reports/213800S1TDKIB1IUTS72-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml); period 2025-09-30, filed 2026-01-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.