# Par Pacific Holdings (PARR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PARR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:02.474Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $83.74 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $111.20 per share, central $154.40 per share, high $181.13 per share. Buy at or below the central value $154.40 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:02.474Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.6% at the stated quote. About 15.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.74×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: -0.10×

- FY2021: -0.00×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -7.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 9.7%

- FY2018: 11.9%

- FY2019: 8.6%

- FY2020: -22.3%

- FY2021: -0.6%

- FY2022: 48.8%

- FY2023: 34.9%

- FY2024: 1.5%

- FY2025: 16.9%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 38.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 49.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 1.13×

- FY2023: 1.05×

- FY2024: 1.12×

- FY2025: 0.99×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.7% vs 16.9%

- Per-share earnings: -1.06 to 7.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: $1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $762M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $8.22

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.06

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.49

- Average buyback yield: 4.4%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.08

- FY2017: $1.59

- FY2018: $0.86

- FY2019: $0.81

- FY2020: -$7.68

- FY2021: -$1.40

- FY2022: $6.08

- FY2023: $11.94

- FY2024: -$0.59

- FY2025: $7.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.84×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.21×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.0%

- FY2017: -2.5%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -2.4%

- FY2020: -17.4%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: -2.7%

- FY2023: 3.9%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -1.9%

## Holders

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.9% a year for ten years · "Par Pacific's 2026 Setup Hinges on Rockies Capture Rebound" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +15.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:21.736Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.9% a year for ten years

- 2026-04-29: Par Pacific's 2026 Setup Hinges on Rockies Capture Rebound ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/par-pacifics-2026-setup-hinges-134100621.html))

- 2026-05-15: Par Pacific Shares Plunge 13% as Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/par-pacific-shares-plunge-13-162100389.html))

- 2026-09-27: Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Could Be 8% Undervalued As Refining Margins Stay Strong ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/par-pacific-holdings-parr-could-130848418.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +15.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821483/000082148326000005/parr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $2.4B 

- FY2018: $3.4B 

- FY2019: $5.4B 

- FY2020: $3.1B 

- FY2021: $4.7B 

- FY2022: $7.3B 

- FY2023: $8.2B 

- FY2024: $8.0B 

- FY2025: $7.5B 

- FY2026: $8.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 22.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821483/000082148326000005/parr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 14.0% 

- FY2018: 10.4% 

- FY2019: 9.5% 

- FY2020: 2.8% 

- FY2021: 5.9% 

- FY2022: 11.6% 

- FY2023: 15.5% 

- FY2024: 9.3% 

- FY2025: 18.1% 

- FY2026: 22.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas refining & marketing; annual sales are USD 7.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821483/000082148326000005/parr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 7464650000; grossProfit 1354828000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PARR.US: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates refineries that convert crude oil into gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products. The Retail segment operates convenience stores and fuel retail outlets that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared food, and other sundries under the Hele, 76, and nomnom brands, as well as unattended cardlock stations. The Logistics segment owns and operates terminals, pipelines, trucking operations, marine vessels, storage facilities, loading and truck racks, and rail facilities for the movement of ethanol, petroleum, and refined products; and a jet fuel storage facility and pipeline that serves Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota. The company also holds interest in crude storage tanks and a crude oil pipeline that provides access to crude oil from power river basin; and refined products pipeline. In addition, it owns and operates a single point mooring, a marine terminal, a unit train-capable rail loading terminal, manifest rail siding, a truck rack, and a proprietary jet fuel pipeline that serves Joint Base Lewis McChord. The company was formerly known as Par Petroleum Corporation and changed its name to Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. in October 2015. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9.3% to 18.1% during 2023–25; it earns 10.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 15.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 9.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821483/000082148326000005/parr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.09666898837124364],[2018,0.11903378534159843],[2019,0.08562064313514099],[2020,-0.22274967503276272],[2021,-0.00609705226904376],[2022,0.488373105861803],[2023,0.34949385512990777],[2024,0.015439340278675388],[2025,0.1691273222352347],[2026,0.3868157509247149]]; median 0.10785138685642104. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 124.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 31708000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 86902000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 48439000; cash acquisitions 74331000; owner earnings 43630000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.7036672014668806.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 83920000; cash acquisitions 273399000; owner earnings 43010000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 6.356637991164845.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 53025000; cash acquisitions 35546000; owner earnings 410933000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08650071909532697.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 82277000; cash acquisitions 595420000; owner earnings 766195000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7771128759649959.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821483/000082148326000005/parr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 148873000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 364843000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,111270000],[2020,0],[2021,247871000],[2022,0],[2023,4328000],[2024,13080000],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821483/000082148326000005/parr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 124845000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PARR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.63 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03942086434159936. Price 83.74; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.1236796008280694 → FY2025 7.071834234653331. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $12.74 per share

- 2016-11: $14.80 per share

- 2016-12: $14.54 per share

- 2017-01: $14.53 per share

- 2017-02: $14.60 per share

- 2017-03: $16.49 per share

- 2017-04: $16.37 per share

- 2017-05: $17.21 per share

- 2017-06: $18.04 per share

- 2017-07: $17.91 per share

- 2017-08: $17.81 per share

- 2017-09: $20.80 per share

- 2017-10: $20.99 per share

- 2017-11: $20.76 per share

- 2017-12: $19.28 per share

- 2018-01: $18.23 per share

- 2018-02: $17.02 per share

- 2018-03: $17.17 per share

- 2018-04: $16.87 per share

- 2018-05: $17.81 per share

- 2018-06: $17.38 per share

- 2018-07: $17.51 per share

- 2018-08: $20.31 per share

- 2018-09: $20.40 per share

- 2018-10: $17.68 per share

- 2018-11: $16.92 per share

- 2018-12: $14.18 per share

- 2019-01: $16.26 per share

- 2019-02: $16.90 per share

- 2019-03: $17.81 per share

- 2019-04: $19.54 per share

- 2019-05: $19.60 per share

- 2019-06: $20.52 per share

- 2019-07: $23.06 per share

- 2019-08: $21.74 per share

- 2019-09: $22.86 per share

- 2019-10: $22.65 per share

- 2019-11: $24.89 per share

- 2019-12: $23.24 per share

- 2020-01: $20.12 per share

- 2020-02: $16.59 per share

- 2020-03: $7.10 per share

- 2020-04: $9.72 per share

- 2020-05: $9.29 per share

- 2020-06: $8.99 per share

- 2020-07: $7.41 per share

- 2020-08: $8.68 per share

- 2020-09: $6.77 per share

- 2020-10: $6.44 per share

- 2020-11: $11.39 per share

- 2020-12: $13.98 per share

- 2021-01: $13.28 per share

- 2021-02: $17.67 per share

- 2021-03: $14.12 per share

- 2021-04: $15.19 per share

- 2021-05: $13.92 per share

- 2021-06: $16.82 per share

- 2021-07: $16.38 per share

- 2021-08: $16.49 per share

- 2021-09: $15.72 per share

- 2021-10: $15.46 per share

- 2021-11: $13.54 per share

- 2021-12: $16.49 per share

- 2022-01: $14.10 per share

- 2022-02: $13.60 per share

- 2022-03: $13.02 per share

- 2022-04: $14.67 per share

- 2022-05: $16.40 per share

- 2022-06: $15.59 per share

- 2022-07: $16.50 per share

- 2022-08: $18.80 per share

- 2022-09: $16.41 per share

- 2022-10: $22.88 per share

- 2022-11: $23.43 per share

- 2022-12: $23.25 per share

- 2023-01: $26.73 per share

- 2023-02: $27.78 per share

- 2023-03: $29.20 per share

- 2023-04: $23.43 per share

- 2023-05: $21.32 per share

- 2023-06: $26.61 per share

- 2023-07: $31.48 per share

- 2023-08: $34.35 per share

- 2023-09: $35.94 per share

- 2023-10: $32.82 per share

- 2023-11: $34.27 per share

- 2023-12: $36.37 per share

- 2024-01: $36.59 per share

- 2024-02: $36.12 per share

- 2024-03: $37.06 per share

- 2024-04: $30.80 per share

- 2024-05: $27.14 per share

- 2024-06: $25.25 per share

- 2024-07: $26.55 per share

- 2024-08: $22.44 per share

- 2024-09: $17.60 per share

- 2024-10: $15.45 per share

- 2024-11: $17.43 per share

- 2024-12: $16.39 per share

- 2025-01: $16.72 per share

- 2025-02: $14.37 per share

- 2025-03: $14.26 per share

- 2025-04: $14.32 per share

- 2025-05: $21.59 per share

- 2025-06: $26.53 per share

- 2025-07: $31.38 per share

- 2025-08: $34.64 per share

- 2025-09: $35.42 per share

- 2025-10: $39.98 per share

- 2025-11: $45.65 per share

- 2025-12: $35.14 per share

- 2026-01: $37.74 per share

- 2026-02: $42.67 per share

- 2026-03: $62.64 per share

- 2026-04: $65.67 per share

- 2026-05: $56.16 per share

- 2026-06: $56.08 per share

- 2026-07: $86.03 per share

- 2026-08: $79.92 per share

- 2026-09: $81.62 per share

- 2026-10: $83.74 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $9.67 per share, central $10.96 per share, high $12.66 per share

- FY2020: low $5.21 per share, central $5.92 per share, high $6.85 per share

- FY2021: low $7.34 per share, central $8.31 per share, high $9.61 per share

- FY2022: low $16.39 per share, central $17.86 per share, high $19.81 per share

- FY2023: low $16.35 per share, central $22.35 per share, high $25.92 per share

- FY2025: low $93.81 per share, central $130.15 per share, high $152.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821483/000082148326000005/parr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.