# Puma Biotechnology (PBYI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PBYI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:05.274Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $10.52 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $6.08 per share, central $6.68 per share, high $7.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value $6.68 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:05.274Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.9% at the stated quote. About 6.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 2.97×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -10.56×

- FY2018: -0.38×

- FY2019: -0.28×

- FY2020: -0.14×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -46.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -1150.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -88.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.1 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1426.0%

- FY2017: -1150.4%

- FY2018: -96.2%

- FY2019: -229.3%

- FY2020: -111.1%

- FY2021: 3.2%

- FY2022: 28.1%

- FY2023: 45.0%

- FY2024: 47.5%

- FY2025: 52.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.67×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $90M

- Net income, five-year total: $54M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 6.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.61×

- FY2022: 1,421.00×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 1.38×

- FY2025: 1.35×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -1150.4% vs 47.5%

- Per-share earnings: -7.86 to 0.61 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Market cap gain: -$831M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$487M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $8.47

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$7.86

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.61

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $87M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$763M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -1150.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 47.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$8.29

- FY2017: -$7.86

- FY2018: -$2.99

- FY2019: -$1.95

- FY2020: -$1.52

- FY2021: -$0.72

- FY2022: $0.00

- FY2023: $0.45

- FY2024: $0.62

- FY2025: $0.61

### accounting: fail

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.69×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 16.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.34×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.32×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -53.1%

- FY2017: -72.2%

- FY2018: -34.5%

- FY2019: -41.7%

- FY2020: -24.9%

- FY2021: -22.0%

- FY2022: 7.1%

- FY2023: -2.4%

- FY2024: -4.1%

- FY2025: -4.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.1% a year for ten years · sales +1.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:22.495Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-08: PBYI's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Nerlynx Sales Drive Revenues ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pbyis-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-142600257.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401667/000143774926005891/pbyi20251231_10k.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $28M 

- FY2018: $251M 

- FY2019: $272M 

- FY2020: $225M 

- FY2021: $253M 

- FY2022: $228M 

- FY2023: $236M 

- FY2024: $230M 

- FY2025: $228M 

- FY2026: $231M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401667/000143774926005891/pbyi20251231_10k.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: 79.8% 

- FY2018: 86.2% 

- FY2019: 86.5% 

- FY2020: 82.5% 

- FY2021: 74.8% 

- FY2022: 75.8% 

- FY2023: 73.4% 

- FY2024: 72.1% 

- FY2025: 74.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in biotechnology; annual sales are USD 228.4 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401667/000143774926005891/pbyi20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 228371000; grossProfit 170214000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); PBYI.US: Puma Biotechnology, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products to enhance cancer care in the United States and internationally. It offers NERLYNX, an oral version of neratinib that is used to treat adult patients with early stage HER2-overexpressed/amplified breast cancer; and advanced or metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer when combined with capecitabine. The company also develops alisertib, a small molecule inhibitor of aurora kinase A for the treatment of hormone receptor positive breast cancer, triple negative breast cancer, small cell lung cancer, and head and neck cancer. It sells its products through specialty pharmacy and distributor networks. The company has license agreements with Pfizer Inc. for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of neratinib (oral), neratinib (intravenous), PB357, and related compounds, as well as sub-license agreements with Specialised Therapeutics Asia Pte Ltd., Medison Pharma Ltd., Pint Pharma International SA, Knight Therapeutics, Inc., Pierre Fabre Medicament SAS, and Bixink Therapeutics Co., Ltd. Puma Biotechnology, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 72.1% to 74.5% during 2023–25; it lost 46.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 73.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 72.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401667/000143774926005891/pbyi20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-14.259592795614722],[2017,-11.504357786742368],[2018,-0.9617055738379268],[2019,-2.292692337223587],[2020,-1.1112047746830758],[2021,0.03175854654242887],[2022,0.28127337407643893],[2023,0.4504947514589027],[2024,0.4746329051837773],[2025,0.5285369482178306]]; median -0.46497351364774897. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 7000000; owner earnings 2842000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 483608.5020455625; upkeep 12156391.497954438; owner earnings 20953608.502045564. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.023079962670790138.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 56000; owner earnings 41746000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401667/000143774926005891/pbyi20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 71000; owner earnings 41978000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 15.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); PBYI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 15.277 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10326187268092413. Price 10.52; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -7.461380147863602 → FY2025 0.8287320685610842. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $38.30 per share

- 2016-11: $43.05 per share

- 2016-12: $30.70 per share

- 2017-01: $32.40 per share

- 2017-02: $36.70 per share

- 2017-03: $37.20 per share

- 2017-04: $40.60 per share

- 2017-05: $76.50 per share

- 2017-06: $87.40 per share

- 2017-07: $95.05 per share

- 2017-08: $92.50 per share

- 2017-09: $119.75 per share

- 2017-10: $127.30 per share

- 2017-11: $105.90 per share

- 2017-12: $98.85 per share

- 2018-01: $66.85 per share

- 2018-02: $65.35 per share

- 2018-03: $68.05 per share

- 2018-04: $63.75 per share

- 2018-05: $52.95 per share

- 2018-06: $59.15 per share

- 2018-07: $48.15 per share

- 2018-08: $43.95 per share

- 2018-09: $45.85 per share

- 2018-10: $37.05 per share

- 2018-11: $23.24 per share

- 2018-12: $20.35 per share

- 2019-01: $27.88 per share

- 2019-02: $27.81 per share

- 2019-03: $38.79 per share

- 2019-04: $32.12 per share

- 2019-05: $14.79 per share

- 2019-06: $12.71 per share

- 2019-07: $9.65 per share

- 2019-08: $10.75 per share

- 2019-09: $10.77 per share

- 2019-10: $6.80 per share

- 2019-11: $9.49 per share

- 2019-12: $8.75 per share

- 2020-01: $7.86 per share

- 2020-02: $10.76 per share

- 2020-03: $8.44 per share

- 2020-04: $10.05 per share

- 2020-05: $10.21 per share

- 2020-06: $10.43 per share

- 2020-07: $10.31 per share

- 2020-08: $10.29 per share

- 2020-09: $10.09 per share

- 2020-10: $8.37 per share

- 2020-11: $11.25 per share

- 2020-12: $10.26 per share

- 2021-01: $11.74 per share

- 2021-02: $9.96 per share

- 2021-03: $9.72 per share

- 2021-04: $9.86 per share

- 2021-05: $10.55 per share

- 2021-06: $9.18 per share

- 2021-07: $7.52 per share

- 2021-08: $7.57 per share

- 2021-09: $7.01 per share

- 2021-10: $5.10 per share

- 2021-11: $3.10 per share

- 2021-12: $3.04 per share

- 2022-01: $2.46 per share

- 2022-02: $2.30 per share

- 2022-03: $2.88 per share

- 2022-04: $2.36 per share

- 2022-05: $1.94 per share

- 2022-06: $2.85 per share

- 2022-07: $2.93 per share

- 2022-08: $2.68 per share

- 2022-09: $2.37 per share

- 2022-10: $2.18 per share

- 2022-11: $4.52 per share

- 2022-12: $4.23 per share

- 2023-01: $4.30 per share

- 2023-02: $3.86 per share

- 2023-03: $3.09 per share

- 2023-04: $2.68 per share

- 2023-05: $3.35 per share

- 2023-06: $3.53 per share

- 2023-07: $3.62 per share

- 2023-08: $3.63 per share

- 2023-09: $2.63 per share

- 2023-10: $2.46 per share

- 2023-11: $3.90 per share

- 2023-12: $4.33 per share

- 2024-01: $4.70 per share

- 2024-02: $6.22 per share

- 2024-03: $5.30 per share

- 2024-04: $5.07 per share

- 2024-05: $3.85 per share

- 2024-06: $3.26 per share

- 2024-07: $3.59 per share

- 2024-08: $2.50 per share

- 2024-09: $2.55 per share

- 2024-10: $2.85 per share

- 2024-11: $3.39 per share

- 2024-12: $3.05 per share

- 2025-01: $2.89 per share

- 2025-02: $3.58 per share

- 2025-03: $2.96 per share

- 2025-04: $3.18 per share

- 2025-05: $3.28 per share

- 2025-06: $3.43 per share

- 2025-07: $3.11 per share

- 2025-08: $5.04 per share

- 2025-09: $5.31 per share

- 2025-10: $5.10 per share

- 2025-11: $5.05 per share

- 2025-12: $5.95 per share

- 2026-01: $6.48 per share

- 2026-02: $5.70 per share

- 2026-03: $6.39 per share

- 2026-04: $7.51 per share

- 2026-05: $7.17 per share

- 2026-06: $8.11 per share

- 2026-07: $7.93 per share

- 2026-08: $9.11 per share

- 2026-09: $9.93 per share

- 2026-10: $10.52 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2024: low $2.60 per share, central $2.69 per share, high $2.81 per share

- FY2025: low $6.22 per share, central $6.82 per share, high $7.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:49.808Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1401667/000143774926005891/pbyi20251231_10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.