# Paccar (PCAR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PCAR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:05.586Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $110.81 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $71.83 per share, central $79.56 per share, high $89.85 per share. Buy at or below the central value $79.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:05.586Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.5%

- FY2017: 11.2%

- FY2018: 14.2%

- FY2019: 14.3%

- FY2020: 7.8%

- FY2021: 10.4%

- FY2022: 15.6%

- FY2023: 24.1%

- FY2024: 16.1%

- FY2025: 9.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $15B

- Net income, five-year total: $16B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 9.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 62.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 64.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.80×

- FY2025: 0.76×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.2% vs 16.1%

- Per-share earnings: 3.01 to 7.90 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: $35B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $11B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.8%

- Per-share value change: $4.90

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.90

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.02

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $58M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $24B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.99

- FY2017: $3.16

- FY2018: $4.16

- FY2019: $4.58

- FY2020: $2.50

- FY2021: $3.57

- FY2022: $5.75

- FY2023: $8.76

- FY2024: $7.90

- FY2025: $4.51

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.21×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.86×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.6%

- FY2017: -4.4%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: -1.7%

- FY2020: -6.0%

- FY2021: -1.1%

- FY2022: -0.0%

- FY2023: 1.0%

- FY2024: -1.1%

- FY2025: -4.6%

## Holders

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.9% a year for ten years · sales -4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:22.556Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: Truckmaker PACCAR's first-quarter results slump on sluggish demand ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/truckmaker-paccars-first-quarter-results-151631761.html))

- 2025-05-13: PCAR Q1 Earnings Call: Tariff Uncertainty and Margin Pressure Shape Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pcar-q1-earnings-call-tariff-110357375.html))

- 2025-07-22: PACCAR targets 4%–6% parts sales growth in Q3 2025 as market stabilizes ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4470314-paccar-targets-4-percent-6-percent-parts-sales-growth-in-q3-2025-as-market-stabilizes?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-07: Paccar envisions ‘competitive leg up’ from Section 232 tariffs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paccar-envisions-competitive-leg-section-093000897.html))

- 2026-01-28: PCAR Q4 Deep Dive: Tariff Clarity and Aftermarket Growth Offset Truck Demand Weakness ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pcar-q4-deep-dive-tariff-053508885.html))

- 2026-07-29: PACCAR Q2 profit climbs as class 8 truck demand firms ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paccar-q2-profit-climbs-class-141638774.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: $19B 

- FY2018: $23B 

- FY2019: $26B 

- FY2020: $19B 

- FY2021: $24B 

- FY2022: $29B 

- FY2023: $35B 

- FY2024: $34B 

- FY2025: $28B 

- FY2026: $27B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 16.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 19.8% 

- FY2017: 18.9% 

- FY2018: 18.7% 

- FY2019: 18.8% 

- FY2020: 18.5% 

- FY2021: 18.2% 

- FY2022: 18.1% 

- FY2023: 18.3% 

- FY2024: 19.9% 

- FY2025: 16.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are USD 28.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 28444800000; grossProfit 4617700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16.2% to 19.9% during 2023–25; it earns 12.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 18.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 16.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09523044554831457],[2017,0.11180710240952596],[2018,0.14172686649445224],[2019,0.1426357638302518],[2020,0.07769037158497083],[2021,0.10412913718554054],[2022,0.15611171571340432],[2023,0.24076833817614396],[2024,0.16069422557396817],[2025,0.09209310916541202]]; median 0.12676698445198908. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 18% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.18191248304800126],[2022,0.1813516448817996],[2023,0.18280032111684896]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 36.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 737465512.5962474; upkeep 1109134487.4037526; owner earnings 1673565512.5962474. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.44065529974515144.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 898200000; upkeep 1054100000; owner earnings 2195100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4091840918409184.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2019: growth capex 627770489.6256757; upkeep 1343029510.3743243; owner earnings 2122170489.6256757. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2958152950927173.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1638400000; owner earnings 711800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 663400000; upkeep 969400000; owner earnings 1865500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.35561511659072637.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 600300000; upkeep 790200000; owner earnings 3011600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19932926019391686.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 338600000; upkeep 923900000; owner earnings 4600800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07359589636584941.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1745600000; owner earnings 3333300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1386600000; owner earnings 1816600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,829300000],[2017,558300000],[2018,804300000],[2019,1138600000],[2020,1239800000],[2021,708000000],[2022,1004700000],[2023,1518600000],[2024,2288500000],[2025,2267100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 36100000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PCAR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.8579999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Commercial Truck Market Demand is Variable" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Commercial Truck Market Demand is Variable

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07147836506902527. Price 110.81; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.5287558597524675 → FY2025 3.448367501898254. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $36.61 per share

- 2016-11: $41.43 per share

- 2016-12: $42.60 per share

- 2017-01: $44.87 per share

- 2017-02: $44.54 per share

- 2017-03: $44.80 per share

- 2017-04: $44.49 per share

- 2017-05: $41.97 per share

- 2017-06: $44.03 per share

- 2017-07: $45.63 per share

- 2017-08: $44.22 per share

- 2017-09: $48.23 per share

- 2017-10: $47.82 per share

- 2017-11: $46.89 per share

- 2017-12: $47.39 per share

- 2018-01: $49.71 per share

- 2018-02: $47.73 per share

- 2018-03: $44.11 per share

- 2018-04: $42.45 per share

- 2018-05: $41.49 per share

- 2018-06: $41.31 per share

- 2018-07: $43.81 per share

- 2018-08: $45.61 per share

- 2018-09: $45.46 per share

- 2018-10: $38.14 per share

- 2018-11: $41.48 per share

- 2018-12: $38.09 per share

- 2019-01: $43.68 per share

- 2019-02: $45.20 per share

- 2019-03: $45.43 per share

- 2019-04: $47.78 per share

- 2019-05: $43.88 per share

- 2019-06: $47.77 per share

- 2019-07: $46.76 per share

- 2019-08: $43.71 per share

- 2019-09: $46.67 per share

- 2019-10: $50.71 per share

- 2019-11: $54.25 per share

- 2019-12: $52.73 per share

- 2020-01: $49.47 per share

- 2020-02: $44.60 per share

- 2020-03: $40.75 per share

- 2020-04: $46.15 per share

- 2020-05: $49.24 per share

- 2020-06: $49.90 per share

- 2020-07: $56.72 per share

- 2020-08: $57.23 per share

- 2020-09: $56.85 per share

- 2020-10: $56.92 per share

- 2020-11: $58.04 per share

- 2020-12: $57.52 per share

- 2021-01: $60.81 per share

- 2021-02: $60.66 per share

- 2021-03: $61.95 per share

- 2021-04: $59.92 per share

- 2021-05: $61.04 per share

- 2021-06: $59.50 per share

- 2021-07: $55.33 per share

- 2021-08: $54.58 per share

- 2021-09: $52.61 per share

- 2021-10: $59.75 per share

- 2021-11: $55.61 per share

- 2021-12: $58.84 per share

- 2022-01: $61.99 per share

- 2022-02: $61.21 per share

- 2022-03: $58.71 per share

- 2022-04: $55.37 per share

- 2022-05: $57.89 per share

- 2022-06: $54.89 per share

- 2022-07: $61.01 per share

- 2022-08: $58.34 per share

- 2022-09: $55.79 per share

- 2022-10: $64.55 per share

- 2022-11: $70.61 per share

- 2022-12: $65.98 per share

- 2023-01: $72.87 per share

- 2023-02: $72.20 per share

- 2023-03: $73.20 per share

- 2023-04: $74.69 per share

- 2023-05: $68.78 per share

- 2023-06: $83.65 per share

- 2023-07: $86.13 per share

- 2023-08: $82.29 per share

- 2023-09: $85.02 per share

- 2023-10: $82.53 per share

- 2023-11: $91.82 per share

- 2023-12: $97.65 per share

- 2024-01: $100.39 per share

- 2024-02: $110.89 per share

- 2024-03: $123.89 per share

- 2024-04: $106.11 per share

- 2024-05: $107.50 per share

- 2024-06: $102.94 per share

- 2024-07: $98.66 per share

- 2024-08: $96.18 per share

- 2024-09: $98.68 per share

- 2024-10: $104.28 per share

- 2024-11: $117.00 per share

- 2024-12: $104.02 per share

- 2025-01: $110.88 per share

- 2025-02: $107.24 per share

- 2025-03: $97.37 per share

- 2025-04: $90.21 per share

- 2025-05: $93.85 per share

- 2025-06: $95.06 per share

- 2025-07: $98.76 per share

- 2025-08: $99.98 per share

- 2025-09: $98.32 per share

- 2025-10: $98.40 per share

- 2025-11: $105.42 per share

- 2025-12: $109.51 per share

- 2026-01: $122.91 per share

- 2026-02: $126.09 per share

- 2026-03: $115.50 per share

- 2026-04: $118.80 per share

- 2026-05: $110.37 per share

- 2026-06: $120.12 per share

- 2026-07: $132.68 per share

- 2026-08: $124.13 per share

- 2026-09: $109.81 per share

- 2026-10: $107.98 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $9.16 per share, central $9.71 per share, high $10.45 per share

- FY2017: low $23.45 per share, central $25.82 per share, high $28.96 per share

- FY2018: low $38.30 per share, central $42.54 per share, high $48.18 per share

- FY2019: low $64.61 per share, central $88.33 per share, high $102.14 per share

- FY2020: low $41.37 per share, central $45.86 per share, high $51.84 per share

- FY2021: low $54.25 per share, central $67.02 per share, high $76.86 per share

- FY2022: low $69.04 per share, central $88.47 per share, high $101.72 per share

- FY2023: low $90.39 per share, central $121.14 per share, high $139.47 per share

- FY2024: low $98.96 per share, central $127.64 per share, high $146.56 per share

- FY2025: low $75.42 per share, central $83.48 per share, high $94.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:50.123Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75362/000119312526057025/pcar-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.