Profits were positive in 7 years (at least 9 needed).
- 10y median
- $3.0M
- Worst year
- -$30M
- Latest · 2025
- $28M
# Ponce Financial Group (PDLB.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PDLB Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:06.359Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $20.18 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $0.14 per share, central $0.16 per share, high $0.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value $0.16 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:06.359Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 1.6% at the stated quote. About 1.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: fail - positive earnings in fewer than 9 of 10 years - Financial history: 10 years - Profitable years in the last ten: 7 - Required profitable years: 9 - Return on common equity variation (informational): 3.82× Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: $1.4M - FY2017: -$2.9M - FY2018: $2.7M - FY2019: -$5.1M - FY2020: $3.9M - FY2021: $25M - FY2022: -$30M - FY2023: $3.4M - FY2024: $10M - FY2025: $28M ### moat: fail - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - median return on common equity below threshold - return on tangible common equity below 5% in more than one year - median cost/income ratio exceeds 65% - Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 1.6% - Required median return: 12.0% - Return uses tangible common equity: Yes - Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: -3.2% - Cost / income, median: 86.1% - Years with reported combined ratio: 0 Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 1.5% - FY2017: -1.7% - FY2018: 1.6% - FY2019: -3.2% - FY2020: 2.4% - FY2021: 13.4% - FY2022: -11.2% - FY2023: 1.3% - FY2024: 3.7% - FY2025: 8.7% ### economics: pass - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 14.8% - Book return interval: 10 years - Starting book value per share: $10.94 - Ending book value per share: $13.73 Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 2.3% - FY2017: -17.8% - FY2018: 15.8% - FY2019: -14.7% - FY2020: 5.2% - FY2021: 134.1% - FY2022: 4.7% - FY2023: 56.9% - FY2024: 6.8% - FY2025: 10.8% ### management: fail - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - ordinary share count growth exceeds 2% annually in both the full and five-year windows - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 10.7% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.7% - Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 10.7% - Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 6.7% - Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0 - Book value created per share: $2.78 - Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: -$18.32 ### accounting: fail - credit provisions persistently exceed same-year peers - Financial accounting warning count: 1 - Known restatement years: 0 - Years loan growth exceeded twice deposit growth: 1 - Years credit losses exceeded peer median: 3 ## Holders - [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story The price assumes profits grow 9.9% a year forever · net income +166.9% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:22.776Z; price observation 2026-10-15. The price assumes profits grow 9.9% a year forever ### Net income · FY2025 net income +166.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874071/000119312526104610/pdlb-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-13. - FY2016: $1.4M - FY2017: -$2.9M - FY2018: $2.7M - FY2019: -$5.1M - FY2020: $3.9M - FY2021: $25M - FY2022: -$30M - FY2023: $3.4M - FY2024: $10M - FY2025: $28M ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in regional banking; annual sales are USD 109.2 million. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874071/000119312526104610/pdlb-20251231.htm#000119312526104610 (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: revenue 109223000. ### Why customers stay It earns 1.6% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.015324393207798772],[2017,-0.017380222714446097],[2018,0.01582413165299222],[2019,-0.03235438946477948],[2020,0.024150077721506295],[2021,0.13428900536838992],[2022,-0.11206948076204706],[2023,0.012582818746598097],[2024,0.03684135472370766],[2025,0.08712079330530187]]; median 0.015574262430395495. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,186637000],[2022,0],[2023,156037000],[2024,588000],[2025,1125000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 18.2% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); PDLB.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.191 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05. ### What the price says The price assumes profits grow 9.9% a year forever. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Price 20.18; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 0.013666971717226627; discount 0.1; growth 0.09932274669389363. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2017-10: $15.05 per share - 2017-11: $16.62 per share - 2017-12: $15.18 per share - 2018-01: $15.15 per share - 2018-02: $14.54 per share - 2018-03: $14.65 per share - 2018-04: $15.90 per share - 2018-05: $15.36 per share - 2018-06: $15.71 per share - 2018-07: $15.16 per share - 2018-08: $14.84 per share - 2018-09: $15.11 per share - 2018-10: $13.71 per share - 2018-11: $13.14 per share - 2018-12: $12.74 per share - 2019-01: $12.93 per share - 2019-02: $13.09 per share - 2019-03: $13.95 per share - 2019-04: $14.47 per share - 2019-05: $14.08 per share - 2019-06: $14.29 per share - 2019-07: $14.38 per share - 2019-08: $13.99 per share - 2019-09: $14.06 per share - 2019-10: $14.03 per share - 2019-11: $14.60 per share - 2019-12: $14.70 per share - 2020-01: $14.09 per share - 2020-02: $14.05 per share - 2020-03: $10.27 per share - 2020-04: $9.21 per share - 2020-05: $8.94 per share - 2020-06: $10.18 per share - 2020-07: $9.10 per share - 2020-08: $8.11 per share - 2020-09: $8.82 per share - 2020-10: $9.10 per share - 2020-11: $10.90 per share - 2020-12: $10.51 per share - 2021-01: $9.42 per share - 2021-02: $10.18 per share - 2021-03: $11.11 per share - 2021-04: $11.08 per share - 2021-05: $14.00 per share - 2021-06: $13.66 per share - 2021-07: $13.11 per share - 2021-08: $13.71 per share - 2021-09: $14.41 per share - 2021-10: $15.51 per share - 2021-11: $15.06 per share - 2021-12: $14.50 per share - 2022-01: $10.73 per share - 2022-02: $10.57 per share - 2022-03: $10.38 per share - 2022-04: $10.40 per share - 2022-05: $9.42 per share - 2022-06: $9.24 per share - 2022-07: $9.35 per share - 2022-08: $9.41 per share - 2022-09: $9.16 per share - 2022-10: $9.24 per share - 2022-11: $9.89 per share - 2022-12: $9.32 per share - 2023-01: $9.10 per share - 2023-02: $9.16 per share - 2023-03: $7.85 per share - 2023-04: $7.47 per share - 2023-05: $7.58 per share - 2023-06: $8.69 per share - 2023-07: $9.23 per share - 2023-08: $7.99 per share - 2023-09: $7.82 per share - 2023-10: $7.78 per share - 2023-11: $8.92 per share - 2023-12: $9.76 per share - 2024-01: $9.06 per share - 2024-02: $8.82 per share - 2024-03: $8.90 per share - 2024-04: $8.04 per share - 2024-05: $9.36 per share - 2024-06: $9.14 per share - 2024-07: $9.90 per share - 2024-08: $11.34 per share - 2024-09: $11.69 per share - 2024-10: $11.25 per share - 2024-11: $12.93 per share - 2024-12: $13.00 per share - 2025-01: $13.27 per share - 2025-02: $13.12 per share - 2025-03: $12.67 per share - 2025-04: $12.87 per share - 2025-05: $13.39 per share - 2025-06: $13.84 per share - 2025-07: $14.05 per share - 2025-08: $14.84 per share - 2025-09: $14.70 per share - 2025-10: $14.11 per share - 2025-11: $15.94 per share - 2025-12: $16.35 per share - 2026-01: $16.78 per share - 2026-02: $16.25 per share - 2026-03: $16.71 per share - 2026-04: $17.46 per share - 2026-05: $18.88 per share - 2026-06: $19.94 per share - 2026-07: $20.18 per share - 2026-08: $20.28 per share - 2026-09: $19.94 per share - 2026-10: $20.18 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2024: low $3.17 per share, central $3.49 per share, high $3.88 per share - FY2025: low $0.15 per share, central $0.17 per share, high $0.19 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874071/000119312526104610/pdlb-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-13. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
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Ponce Financial Group
PDLB · US
Not a wonderful business
4 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
- Share price
- $20.18
- Buy up to
- $0.16
- Expected / yr
- 1.6% at today's price (10.0% at central value)
The business
- How it makes money
- Why customers stay
- Where the cash goes
- Are managers owners
- What the price says
1. Is this a good business?
Earned a median 1.6% on tangible equity (minimum 12%), and the second-worst year -3.2% (minimum 5%), and costs took 86.1% of income (limit 65%).
- 10y median
- 1.6%
- Worst year
- -11.2%
- Latest · 2025
- 8.7%
Book value plus dividends grew 14.8% a year (minimum 7%).
- 10y median
- 6.0%
- Worst year
- -17.8%
- Latest · 2025
- 10.8%
Ordinary share growth was 10.7% over the full period and 6.7% over five years (either must be at most 2% a year).
Founder or family ownership or board role: 5% estimated likelihood. ; Buybacks described as below intrinsic value: 2% estimated likelihood. ; Acquisitions are the main growth strategy: 2% estimated likelihood.
- per-share value change
- Passing bar
- ≥ $0
1 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).
Material weakness in internal control: 2% estimated likelihood. ; Auditor change within the past three years disclosed: 3% estimated likelihood. ; Going-concern uncertainty: 4% estimated likelihood. ; Material related-party transactions: 32% estimated likelihood.
- accounting warnings
- 1
- Passing bar
- ≤ 0
Profit record · fail 3 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 0.6 USD. 3 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed.
2. Is the price low enough?
| Value range | $0.14 – $0.18 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $0.16 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 20.18 / 0.16 = -12456.0% |
| Return / year | About 1.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Book USD 22.39/share; ROE 1.6%; first payout USD 0.01/share, growing 1.5% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied). |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |
Net income$28M
FY2016 · Net income: $1.4M; FY2017 · Net income: -$2.9M; FY2018 · Net income: $2.7M; FY2019 · Net income: -$5.1M; FY2020 · Net income: $3.9M; FY2021 · Net income: $25M; FY2022 · Net income: -$30M; FY2023 · Net income: $3.4M; FY2024 · Net income: $10M; FY2025 · Net income: $28M
Book / share$13.73
FY2016 · Book / share: $11.19; FY2017 · Book / share: $9.20; FY2018 · Book / share: $10.66; FY2019 · Book / share: $9.09; FY2020 · Book / share: $9.56; FY2021 · Book / share: $11.27; FY2022 · Book / share: $11.80; FY2023 · Book / share: $11.67; FY2024 · Book / share: $12.44; FY2025 · Book / share: $13.73
Dividend / share$0.05
FY2016 · Dividend / share: $0; FY2017 · Dividend / share: $0; FY2018 · Dividend / share: $0; FY2019 · Dividend / share: $0; FY2020 · Dividend / share: $0; FY2021 · Dividend / share: $11.12; FY2022 · Dividend / share: $0; FY2023 · Dividend / share: $6.84; FY2024 · Dividend / share: $0.03; FY2025 · Dividend / share: $0.05
Return on tangible equity8.7%
FY2016 · Return on tangible equity: 1.5%; FY2017 · Return on tangible equity: -1.7%; FY2018 · Return on tangible equity: 1.6%; FY2019 · Return on tangible equity: -3.2%; FY2020 · Return on tangible equity: 2.4%; FY2021 · Return on tangible equity: 13.4%; FY2022 · Return on tangible equity: -11.2%; FY2023 · Return on tangible equity: 1.3%; FY2024 · Return on tangible equity: 3.7%; FY2025 · Return on tangible equity: 8.7%
Diluted shares23M
FY2016 · Diluted shares: 8.3M; FY2017 · Diluted shares: 18M; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 16M; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 17M; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 17M; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 17M; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 23M; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 23M; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 23M; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 23M
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·