# Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras (PETR3.SA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PETR3.SA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:34.993Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: BRL. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: BRL 64.22 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low BRL 55.55 per share, central BRL 59.22 per share, high BRL 63.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value BRL 59.22 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:34.993Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.8% at the stated quote. About 15.8% a year at today's price (required return 17.0%). required return 17.0% a year (BR 10-year bond 13.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 7 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 7

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.27×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.45×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: 0.37×

- FY2024: 0.29×

- FY2025: 0.29×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 46.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.0%

- FY2017: 4.1%

- FY2018: 7.7%

- FY2019: 8.8%

- FY2020: 6.5%

- FY2021: 22.6%

- FY2022: 34.0%

- FY2023: 20.8%

- FY2024: 15.8%

- FY2025: 13.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $112B

- Net income, five-year total: $109B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.27×

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.05×

- FY2024: 0.71×

- FY2025: 0.78×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.1% vs 15.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.55 to 1.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Market cap gain: $18B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $25B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 22.5%

- Per-share value change: $0.97

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.55

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.52

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $122B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: $0.55

- FY2019: $0.78

- FY2020: $0.09

- FY2021: $1.52

- FY2022: $2.81

- FY2023: $1.91

- FY2024: $0.58

- FY2025: $1.52

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.33×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.84×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -12.5%

- FY2017: -10.8%

- FY2018: -8.6%

- FY2019: -6.7%

- FY2020: -14.6%

- FY2021: -10.3%

- FY2022: -7.0%

- FY2023: -8.4%

- FY2024: -16.8%

- FY2025: -7.4%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.1% a year for ten years · sales -2.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.774Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-14: Petrobras Q1 Earnings Slump on Flat Production, Price Drop ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/petrobras-q1-earnings-slump-flat-125300891.html))

- 2025-08-15: Petrobras Q2 Earnings Miss on Oil Price Drop, Production Grows ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/petrobras-q2-earnings-miss-oil-141000787.html))

- 2026-03-10: Petrobras Q4 Earnings Beat as Output Growth Offsets Oil Drop ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/petrobras-q4-earnings-beat-output-131600731.html))

- 2026-08-17: PBR Q2 Earnings Beat on Record Production and Higher Brent ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/pbr-q2-earnings-beat-record-125200496.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm; observed 2026-04-09.

- FY2016: $81B 

- FY2017: $78B 

- FY2018: $85B 

- FY2019: $77B 

- FY2020: $54B 

- FY2021: $84B 

- FY2022: $124B 

- FY2023: $102B 

- FY2024: $91B 

- FY2025: $89B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm; observed 2026-04-09.

- FY2016: 31.9% 

- FY2017: 34.3% 

- FY2018: 38.3% 

- FY2019: 40.3% 

- FY2020: 45.6% 

- FY2021: 48.6% 

- FY2022: 52.2% 

- FY2023: 52.7% 

- FY2024: 50.3% 

- FY2025: 47.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are USD 89.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm#000129281426002168 (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: revenue 89195000000; grossProfit 42459000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PETR3.SA: Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.6% to 52.7% during 2023–25; it earns 11.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm#000129281426002168 (filed 2026-04-09); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 52.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm#000129281426002168 (filed 2026-04-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 50.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm#000129281426002168 (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.019593091537132987],[2017,0.041240252752075705],[2018,0.07684377310658075],[2019,0.0875464047910882],[2020,0.0645404505784453],[2021,0.226141985510052],[2022,0.34016674526136365],[2023,0.20844038004232524],[2024,0.1579415657753693],[2025,0.13837203270868384]]; median 0.11295921874988601. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2018: growth capex 109000000; upkeep 11912000000; owner earnings 7173000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01519587341419211.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 8556000000; owner earnings 16431000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 5874000000; owner earnings 6712000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 6325000000; owner earnings 25245000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 9581000000; owner earnings 40260000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm#000129281426002168 (filed 2026-04-09); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 12114000000; owner earnings 26050000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm#000129281426002168 (filed 2026-04-09); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 14644000000; owner earnings 5363000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm#000129281426002168 (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 19521000000; owner earnings 15260000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); Dividend observations: [[2016,124000000],[2017,154000000],[2018,2084000000],[2019,2954000000],[2020,930000000],[2021,11962000000],[2022,36394000000],[2023,11903000000],[2024,11656000000],[2025,6060000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 50.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PETR3.SA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 50.260000000000005 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.017668515819433295. Price 64.22; FX 5.098399102681758; discount 0.1695; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (BRL per share)

- 2016-10: BRL 18.64 per share

- 2016-11: BRL 18.47 per share

- 2016-12: BRL 16.94 per share

- 2017-01: BRL 16.19 per share

- 2017-02: BRL 15.96 per share

- 2017-03: BRL 15.15 per share

- 2017-04: BRL 14.36 per share

- 2017-05: BRL 13.62 per share

- 2017-06: BRL 13.20 per share

- 2017-07: BRL 13.80 per share

- 2017-08: BRL 13.97 per share

- 2017-09: BRL 15.81 per share

- 2017-10: BRL 17.42 per share

- 2017-11: BRL 15.95 per share

- 2017-12: BRL 16.91 per share

- 2018-01: BRL 21.30 per share

- 2018-02: BRL 23.15 per share

- 2018-03: BRL 23.36 per share

- 2018-04: BRL 24.63 per share

- 2018-05: BRL 22.19 per share

- 2018-06: BRL 19.42 per share

- 2018-07: BRL 21.94 per share

- 2018-08: BRL 22.08 per share

- 2018-09: BRL 24.23 per share

- 2018-10: BRL 30.32 per share

- 2018-11: BRL 28.13 per share

- 2018-12: BRL 25.40 per share

- 2019-01: BRL 29.55 per share

- 2019-02: BRL 29.86 per share

- 2019-03: BRL 31.15 per share

- 2019-04: BRL 29.96 per share

- 2019-05: BRL 28.23 per share

- 2019-06: BRL 30.02 per share

- 2019-07: BRL 28.79 per share

- 2019-08: BRL 28.27 per share

- 2019-09: BRL 30.15 per share

- 2019-10: BRL 32.70 per share

- 2019-11: BRL 31.20 per share

- 2019-12: BRL 32.00 per share

- 2020-01: BRL 30.35 per share

- 2020-02: BRL 27.15 per share

- 2020-03: BRL 14.14 per share

- 2020-04: BRL 18.65 per share

- 2020-05: BRL 20.84 per share

- 2020-06: BRL 22.34 per share

- 2020-07: BRL 22.70 per share

- 2020-08: BRL 22.32 per share

- 2020-09: BRL 19.77 per share

- 2020-10: BRL 19.00 per share

- 2020-11: BRL 25.55 per share

- 2020-12: BRL 28.85 per share

- 2021-01: BRL 27.33 per share

- 2021-02: BRL 22.15 per share

- 2021-03: BRL 23.94 per share

- 2021-04: BRL 23.10 per share

- 2021-05: BRL 26.65 per share

- 2021-06: BRL 30.29 per share

- 2021-07: BRL 27.50 per share

- 2021-08: BRL 27.92 per share

- 2021-09: BRL 28.15 per share

- 2021-10: BRL 27.67 per share

- 2021-11: BRL 30.14 per share

- 2021-12: BRL 30.70 per share

- 2022-01: BRL 35.27 per share

- 2022-02: BRL 36.37 per share

- 2022-03: BRL 35.24 per share

- 2022-04: BRL 33.44 per share

- 2022-05: BRL 33.26 per share

- 2022-06: BRL 30.54 per share

- 2022-07: BRL 36.96 per share

- 2022-08: BRL 37.17 per share

- 2022-09: BRL 33.08 per share

- 2022-10: BRL 33.26 per share

- 2022-11: BRL 30.39 per share

- 2022-12: BRL 28.04 per share

- 2023-01: BRL 29.46 per share

- 2023-02: BRL 28.75 per share

- 2023-03: BRL 26.49 per share

- 2023-04: BRL 26.67 per share

- 2023-05: BRL 29.21 per share

- 2023-06: BRL 33.10 per share

- 2023-07: BRL 34.81 per share

- 2023-08: BRL 34.54 per share

- 2023-09: BRL 37.89 per share

- 2023-10: BRL 37.84 per share

- 2023-11: BRL 37.70 per share

- 2023-12: BRL 38.98 per share

- 2024-01: BRL 42.16 per share

- 2024-02: BRL 41.22 per share

- 2024-03: BRL 38.28 per share

- 2024-04: BRL 44.26 per share

- 2024-05: BRL 40.70 per share

- 2024-06: BRL 40.38 per share

- 2024-07: BRL 40.60 per share

- 2024-08: BRL 42.94 per share

- 2024-09: BRL 39.27 per share

- 2024-10: BRL 39.06 per share

- 2024-11: BRL 42.62 per share

- 2024-12: BRL 39.41 per share

- 2025-01: BRL 41.65 per share

- 2025-02: BRL 39.05 per share

- 2025-03: BRL 40.82 per share

- 2025-04: BRL 32.05 per share

- 2025-05: BRL 32.91 per share

- 2025-06: BRL 34.09 per share

- 2025-07: BRL 35.79 per share

- 2025-08: BRL 33.75 per share

- 2025-09: BRL 33.78 per share

- 2025-10: BRL 31.51 per share

- 2025-11: BRL 33.38 per share

- 2025-12: BRL 32.57 per share

- 2026-01: BRL 40.39 per share

- 2026-02: BRL 42.73 per share

- 2026-03: BRL 53.91 per share

- 2026-04: BRL 54.73 per share

- 2026-05: BRL 46.73 per share

- 2026-06: BRL 41.78 per share

- 2026-07: BRL 49.04 per share

- 2026-08: BRL 50.29 per share

- 2026-09: BRL 53.87 per share

- 2026-10: BRL 64.22 per share

## Annual estimated value (BRL per share)

- FY2020: low BRL 15.25 per share, central BRL 16.00 per share, high BRL 16.86 per share

- FY2021: low BRL 27.97 per share, central BRL 29.65 per share, high BRL 31.59 per share

- FY2022: low BRL 64.80 per share, central BRL 69.08 per share, high BRL 74.01 per share

- FY2023: low BRL 65.31 per share, central BRL 69.49 per share, high BRL 74.30 per share

- FY2024: low BRL 55.34 per share, central BRL 59.09 per share, high BRL 63.40 per share

- FY2025: low BRL 55.55 per share, central BRL 59.22 per share, high BRL 63.45 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1119639/000129281426002168/pbrform20f_2025.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.