# Procter & Gamble (PG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:09.749Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $157.08 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $83.33 per share, central $98.78 per share, high $114.57 per share. Buy at or below the central value $98.78 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:09.749Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.3% at the stated quote. About 7.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.21×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.24×

- FY2026: 0.23×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 43.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 37.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 50.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 39.2%

- FY2018: 37.1%

- FY2019: 13.4%

- FY2020: 49.9%

- FY2021: 52.3%

- FY2022: 45.8%

- FY2023: 43.7%

- FY2024: 43.7%

- FY2025: 44.9%

- FY2026: 41.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $75B

- Net income, five-year total: $76B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 157.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -2.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.95×

- FY2026: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 37.1% vs 43.7%

- Per-share earnings: 3.69 to 6.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Market cap gain: $116B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $40B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 7.3%

- Per-share value change: $2.81

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.35

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $3.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $133B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 37.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 43.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $5.59

- FY2018: $3.67

- FY2019: $1.53

- FY2020: $4.96

- FY2021: $5.50

- FY2022: $5.81

- FY2023: $5.90

- FY2024: $6.02

- FY2025: $6.51

- FY2026: $6.62

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.22×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 2.1%

- FY2018: -4.3%

- FY2019: -9.9%

- FY2020: -3.6%

- FY2021: -3.4%

- FY2022: -1.7%

- FY2023: -1.8%

- FY2024: -4.1%

- FY2025: -1.5%

- FY2026: -2.8%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.4% a year for ten years · sales +3.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:23.639Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-12: PG Q1 Earnings Call: Management Cites Consumer Volatility and Tariff Pressures, Lowers EPS Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pg-q1-earnings-call-management-100848910.html))

- 2026-04-26: PG Q1 Deep Dive: Innovation and Global Volume Growth Offset Margin Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/pg-q1-deep-dive-innovation-173016858.html))

- 2026-05-04: Can PG's Cost Discipline Neutralize Weak Consumer Volumes? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/pgs-cost-discipline-neutralize-weak-151300837.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80424/000008042426000103/pg-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-04.

- FY2017: $65B 

- FY2018: $67B 

- FY2019: $68B 

- FY2020: $71B 

- FY2021: $76B 

- FY2022: $80B 

- FY2023: $82B 

- FY2024: $84B 

- FY2025: $84B 

- FY2026: $87B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 50.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80424/000008042426000103/pg-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-04.

- FY2017: 49.8% 

- FY2018: 48.5% 

- FY2019: 48.6% 

- FY2020: 50.3% 

- FY2021: 51.2% 

- FY2022: 47.4% 

- FY2023: 47.9% 

- FY2024: 51.4% 

- FY2025: 51.2% 

- FY2026: 50.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in household & personal products; annual sales are USD 87 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80424/000008042426000103/pg-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-04); FY2026: revenue 87032000000; grossProfit 43669000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PG.US: The Procter & Gamble Company provides branded consumer packaged goods worldwide. It operates through five segments: Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine & Family Care. The company offers conditioners, shampoos, styling aids, and treatments under the Head & Shoulders, Herbal Essences, Pantene, and Rejoice brands; antiperspirants, deodorants, and personal cleansing products under the Native, Old Spice, Safeguard, and Secret brands; and facial moisturizers, cleaners, and treatments under the Olay and SK-II brands. It also provides blades, razors, shave products, appliances, and other grooming products under the Braun, Gillette, and Venus brands. In addition, the company offers toothbrushes, toothpastes, and other oral care products under the Crest and Oral-B brands; and gastrointestinal, pain relief, rapid diagnostics, respiratory, vitamins/minerals/supplements, and other personal health care products under the Metamucil, Neurobion, Pepto-Bismol, and Vicks brands. Further, it provides fabric enhancers, and laundry additives and detergents under the Ariel, Downy, Gain, and Tide brands; and air and dish care, P&G professional, and surface care under the Cascade, Dawn, Fairy, Febreze, Mr. Clean, and Swiffer brands. Additionally, the company offers baby wipes, taped diapers, and pants under the Luvs and Pampers brands; adult incontinence and menstrual care products under the Always, Always Discreet, and Tampax brands; and paper towels, tissues, and toilet papers under the Bounty, Charmin, and Puffs brands. It sells its products through mass merchandisers, social ecommerce channels, grocery and specialty beauty stores, membership club stores, drug and department stores, distributors, wholesalers, airport duty-free and high-frequency stores, pharmacies, electronics stores, and professional channels, as well as directly to consumers. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 50.2% to 51.4% during 2024–26; it earns 43.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 51.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80424/000008042426000103/pg-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-04); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 50.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3921824569702896],[2018,0.37089303978220994],[2019,0.13411901158003325],[2020,0.49892810170393065],[2021,0.5232922444922207],[2022,0.4580638380113929],[2023,0.4373539327376908],[2024,0.43701212462195393],[2025,0.4491779190643894],[2026,0.4104426878506088]]; median 0.4371830286798224. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 4.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 3384000000; owner earnings 14762000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2018: growth capex 528108484.0055361; upkeep 3188891515.994464; owner earnings 9395108484.005535. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05621100436515459.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2019: growth capex 256103777.426085; upkeep 3090896222.573915; owner earnings 3630103777.426085. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07054998785948612.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2020: growth capex 60000000; upkeep 3013000000; owner earnings 13027000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00460581868427113.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2021: growth capex 52000000; upkeep 2735000000; owner earnings 14306000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0036348385292884105.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2022: growth capex 349000000; upkeep 2807000000; owner earnings 14742000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02367385700719034.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2023: growth capex 348000000; upkeep 2714000000; owner earnings 14653000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02374940285265816.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2024: growth capex 426000000; upkeep 2896000000; owner earnings 14879000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.028630956381477248.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); FY2025: growth capex 66811705.3723588; upkeep 3706188294.627641; owner earnings 15114811705.372358. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004420280363043588.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80424/000008042426000103/pg-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-04); FY2026: growth capex 752947331.9136448; upkeep 3656052668.086355; owner earnings 15549947331.913645. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04842121428722446.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); Incremental return on capital 1.5737170451863611, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); Dividend observations: [[2017,7236000000],[2018,7310000000],[2019,7498000000],[2020,7789000000],[2021,8263000000],[2022,8770000000],[2023,8999000000],[2024,9312000000],[2025,9872000000],[2026,10232000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80424/000008042426000103/pg-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-04); FY2026: cash repurchases 5028000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.092 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Changing political and geopolitical conditions could adversely impact our business and financial results." (SEC filing, Aug 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80424/000008042426000103/pg-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-04); Changing political and geopolitical conditions could adversely impact our business and financial results.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14003338974541102. Price 157.08; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 3.6113064266629165 → FY2026 6.418966906878698. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $86.80 per share

- 2016-11: $82.46 per share

- 2016-12: $84.08 per share

- 2017-01: $87.60 per share

- 2017-02: $91.07 per share

- 2017-03: $89.85 per share

- 2017-04: $87.33 per share

- 2017-05: $88.09 per share

- 2017-06: $87.15 per share

- 2017-07: $90.82 per share

- 2017-08: $92.27 per share

- 2017-09: $90.98 per share

- 2017-10: $86.34 per share

- 2017-11: $89.99 per share

- 2017-12: $91.88 per share

- 2018-01: $86.34 per share

- 2018-02: $78.52 per share

- 2018-03: $79.28 per share

- 2018-04: $72.34 per share

- 2018-05: $73.17 per share

- 2018-06: $78.06 per share

- 2018-07: $80.88 per share

- 2018-08: $82.95 per share

- 2018-09: $83.23 per share

- 2018-10: $88.68 per share

- 2018-11: $94.51 per share

- 2018-12: $91.92 per share

- 2019-01: $96.47 per share

- 2019-02: $98.55 per share

- 2019-03: $104.05 per share

- 2019-04: $106.48 per share

- 2019-05: $102.91 per share

- 2019-06: $109.65 per share

- 2019-07: $118.04 per share

- 2019-08: $120.23 per share

- 2019-09: $124.38 per share

- 2019-10: $124.51 per share

- 2019-11: $122.06 per share

- 2019-12: $124.90 per share

- 2020-01: $124.62 per share

- 2020-02: $113.23 per share

- 2020-03: $110.00 per share

- 2020-04: $117.87 per share

- 2020-05: $115.92 per share

- 2020-06: $119.57 per share

- 2020-07: $131.12 per share

- 2020-08: $138.33 per share

- 2020-09: $138.99 per share

- 2020-10: $137.10 per share

- 2020-11: $138.87 per share

- 2020-12: $139.14 per share

- 2021-01: $128.21 per share

- 2021-02: $123.53 per share

- 2021-03: $135.43 per share

- 2021-04: $133.42 per share

- 2021-05: $134.85 per share

- 2021-06: $134.93 per share

- 2021-07: $142.23 per share

- 2021-08: $142.39 per share

- 2021-09: $139.80 per share

- 2021-10: $142.99 per share

- 2021-11: $144.58 per share

- 2021-12: $163.58 per share

- 2022-01: $160.45 per share

- 2022-02: $155.89 per share

- 2022-03: $152.80 per share

- 2022-04: $160.55 per share

- 2022-05: $147.88 per share

- 2022-06: $143.79 per share

- 2022-07: $138.91 per share

- 2022-08: $137.94 per share

- 2022-09: $126.25 per share

- 2022-10: $134.67 per share

- 2022-11: $149.16 per share

- 2022-12: $151.56 per share

- 2023-01: $142.38 per share

- 2023-02: $137.56 per share

- 2023-03: $148.69 per share

- 2023-04: $156.38 per share

- 2023-05: $142.50 per share

- 2023-06: $151.74 per share

- 2023-07: $156.30 per share

- 2023-08: $154.34 per share

- 2023-09: $145.86 per share

- 2023-10: $150.03 per share

- 2023-11: $153.52 per share

- 2023-12: $146.54 per share

- 2024-01: $157.14 per share

- 2024-02: $158.94 per share

- 2024-03: $162.25 per share

- 2024-04: $163.20 per share

- 2024-05: $164.54 per share

- 2024-06: $164.92 per share

- 2024-07: $160.76 per share

- 2024-08: $171.54 per share

- 2024-09: $173.20 per share

- 2024-10: $165.18 per share

- 2024-11: $179.26 per share

- 2024-12: $167.65 per share

- 2025-01: $165.99 per share

- 2025-02: $173.84 per share

- 2025-03: $170.42 per share

- 2025-04: $162.57 per share

- 2025-05: $169.89 per share

- 2025-06: $159.32 per share

- 2025-07: $150.47 per share

- 2025-08: $157.04 per share

- 2025-09: $153.65 per share

- 2025-10: $150.37 per share

- 2025-11: $148.16 per share

- 2025-12: $143.31 per share

- 2026-01: $151.77 per share

- 2026-02: $167.20 per share

- 2026-03: $144.44 per share

- 2026-04: $147.09 per share

- 2026-05: $143.56 per share

- 2026-06: $146.64 per share

- 2026-07: $144.49 per share

- 2026-08: $145.12 per share

- 2026-09: $145.28 per share

- 2026-10: $153.04 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $43.19 per share, central $48.45 per share, high $55.45 per share

- FY2018: low $44.37 per share, central $49.95 per share, high $57.36 per share

- FY2019: low $44.47 per share, central $50.12 per share, high $57.63 per share

- FY2020: low $52.08 per share, central $58.49 per share, high $67.01 per share

- FY2021: low $62.10 per share, central $70.20 per share, high $80.98 per share

- FY2022: low $65.59 per share, central $74.33 per share, high $85.96 per share

- FY2023: low $73.77 per share, central $86.16 per share, high $99.93 per share

- FY2024: low $75.64 per share, central $87.35 per share, high $101.20 per share

- FY2025: low $85.17 per share, central $112.77 per share, high $131.54 per share

- FY2026: low $79.90 per share, central $94.70 per share, high $109.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80424/000008042426000103/pg-20260630.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.