# Progressive (PGR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PGR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:10.348Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $213.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $155.91 per share, central $194.89 per share, high $259.86 per share. Buy at or below the central value $194.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:10.348Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.6% at the stated quote. About 9.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.43×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.0B

- FY2017: $1.6B

- FY2018: $2.6B

- FY2019: $3.9B

- FY2020: $5.7B

- FY2021: $3.3B

- FY2022: $695M

- FY2023: $3.9B

- FY2024: $8.5B

- FY2025: $11B

### moat: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Underwriting economics assessed through return on tangible common equity

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 24.4%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 14.6%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.6%

- FY2017: 18.8%

- FY2018: 27.1%

- FY2019: 31.6%

- FY2020: 35.7%

- FY2021: 19.4%

- FY2022: 4.6%

- FY2023: 21.6%

- FY2024: 36.2%

- FY2025: 40.0%

### economics: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 23.8%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $12.37

- Ending book value per share: $51.56

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 17.1%

- FY2017: 21.5%

- FY2018: 18.1%

- FY2019: 43.4%

- FY2020: 37.2%

- FY2021: 30.0%

- FY2022: -11.9%

- FY2023: 29.9%

- FY2024: 32.7%

- FY2025: 29.6%

### management: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- book per share gain below retained common earnings per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.0%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0.0%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 0.82×

- Book value created per share: $39.19

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $47.94

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 99

- FY2017: 99

- FY2018: 100

- FY2019: 100

- FY2020: 100

- FY2021: 100

- FY2022: 100

- FY2023: 100

- FY2024: 100

- FY2025: 100

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bruce Berkowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/fairx): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 25% since May 2025 · "Progressive (PGR) Faces Pricing Pressure, Is The Stock 9% Undervalued?" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · net income +33.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:23.790Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price is 1.4 times annual sales

- 2025-07-07: Progressive's Growth Story Fading Amid Competition, Valuation Concerns, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/progressive-apos-growth-story-fading-153337284.html))

- 2025-10-15: Progressive stock drops after earnings miss, combined ratio tops 100% in September ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4504333-progressive-stock-drops-after-earnings-miss-combined-ratio-tops-100-in-september?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-03-31: Progressive's Outlook Debated as Pricing Pressures, EPS Risks Loom, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/progressive-apos-outlook-debated-pricing-150010499.html))

- 2026-06-18: Progressive's May Earnings Increase Y/Y on Higher Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/progressives-may-earnings-increase-y-143600076.html))

- 2026-07-17: Progressive (PGR) Stock Falls After Earnings Beat Meets Profit And Margin Pressure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/progressive-pgr-stock-falls-earnings-141133347.html))

- 2026-08-20: Progressive's July Earnings Decline Y/Y on Escalating Expenses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/progressives-july-earnings-decline-y-141400223.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +33.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000086/pgr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: $1.0B 

- FY2017: $1.6B 

- FY2018: $2.6B 

- FY2019: $3.9B 

- FY2020: $5.7B 

- FY2021: $3.3B 

- FY2022: $695M 

- FY2023: $3.9B 

- FY2024: $8.5B 

- FY2025: $11B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance property & casualty; annual sales are USD 87.7 billion.

- Source: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000080661.json#0000080661-26-000086 (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 87671000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PGR.US: The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

It earns 24.4% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.14572644136312882],[2017,0.18808103478825822],[2018,0.27074504728305115],[2019,0.3155149100277638],[2020,0.3566260065575418],[2021,0.19361941320037046],[2022,0.04607867187344609],[2023,0.2163084844414596],[2024,0.3616357576275532],[2025,0.3998726970543513]]; median 0.24352676586225536. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 166 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,519000000],[2017,395400000],[2018,668400000],[2019,1670000000],[2020,1577800000],[2021,3773300000],[2022,260800000],[2023,277600000],[2024,682000000],[2025,2871000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000086/pgr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 166000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PGR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.243 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our success depends on our ability to establish accurate loss reserves." (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000086/pgr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); Our success depends on our ability to establish accurate loss reserves.

### What the price says

The price is 1.4 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Closing price 213.75 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 149.07498724706682; price multiple 1.433842148486957. FY2025 cash earnings/share 19.228022445162388. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $31.51 per share

- 2016-11: $33.30 per share

- 2016-12: $35.50 per share

- 2017-01: $37.44 per share

- 2017-02: $39.18 per share

- 2017-03: $39.18 per share

- 2017-04: $39.72 per share

- 2017-05: $42.43 per share

- 2017-06: $44.09 per share

- 2017-07: $47.13 per share

- 2017-08: $46.48 per share

- 2017-09: $48.42 per share

- 2017-10: $48.65 per share

- 2017-11: $53.18 per share

- 2017-12: $56.32 per share

- 2018-01: $54.10 per share

- 2018-02: $57.58 per share

- 2018-03: $60.93 per share

- 2018-04: $60.29 per share

- 2018-05: $62.09 per share

- 2018-06: $59.15 per share

- 2018-07: $60.01 per share

- 2018-08: $67.53 per share

- 2018-09: $71.04 per share

- 2018-10: $69.70 per share

- 2018-11: $66.29 per share

- 2018-12: $60.33 per share

- 2019-01: $67.29 per share

- 2019-02: $72.90 per share

- 2019-03: $72.09 per share

- 2019-04: $78.15 per share

- 2019-05: $79.28 per share

- 2019-06: $79.93 per share

- 2019-07: $80.98 per share

- 2019-08: $75.80 per share

- 2019-09: $77.25 per share

- 2019-10: $69.70 per share

- 2019-11: $73.05 per share

- 2019-12: $72.39 per share

- 2020-01: $80.69 per share

- 2020-02: $73.16 per share

- 2020-03: $73.84 per share

- 2020-04: $77.30 per share

- 2020-05: $77.68 per share

- 2020-06: $80.11 per share

- 2020-07: $90.34 per share

- 2020-08: $95.04 per share

- 2020-09: $94.67 per share

- 2020-10: $91.90 per share

- 2020-11: $87.11 per share

- 2020-12: $98.88 per share

- 2021-01: $87.19 per share

- 2021-02: $85.95 per share

- 2021-03: $95.61 per share

- 2021-04: $100.74 per share

- 2021-05: $99.08 per share

- 2021-06: $98.21 per share

- 2021-07: $95.16 per share

- 2021-08: $96.34 per share

- 2021-09: $90.39 per share

- 2021-10: $94.88 per share

- 2021-11: $92.94 per share

- 2021-12: $102.65 per share

- 2022-01: $108.66 per share

- 2022-02: $105.93 per share

- 2022-03: $113.99 per share

- 2022-04: $107.36 per share

- 2022-05: $119.38 per share

- 2022-06: $116.27 per share

- 2022-07: $115.06 per share

- 2022-08: $122.65 per share

- 2022-09: $116.21 per share

- 2022-10: $128.40 per share

- 2022-11: $132.15 per share

- 2022-12: $129.71 per share

- 2023-01: $136.35 per share

- 2023-02: $143.52 per share

- 2023-03: $143.06 per share

- 2023-04: $136.40 per share

- 2023-05: $127.91 per share

- 2023-06: $132.37 per share

- 2023-07: $125.98 per share

- 2023-08: $133.47 per share

- 2023-09: $139.30 per share

- 2023-10: $158.09 per share

- 2023-11: $164.03 per share

- 2023-12: $159.28 per share

- 2024-01: $178.25 per share

- 2024-02: $189.56 per share

- 2024-03: $206.82 per share

- 2024-04: $208.25 per share

- 2024-05: $211.18 per share

- 2024-06: $207.71 per share

- 2024-07: $214.12 per share

- 2024-08: $252.20 per share

- 2024-09: $253.76 per share

- 2024-10: $242.83 per share

- 2024-11: $268.88 per share

- 2024-12: $239.61 per share

- 2025-01: $246.44 per share

- 2025-02: $282.00 per share

- 2025-03: $283.01 per share

- 2025-04: $281.74 per share

- 2025-05: $284.93 per share

- 2025-06: $266.86 per share

- 2025-07: $242.04 per share

- 2025-08: $247.06 per share

- 2025-09: $246.95 per share

- 2025-10: $206.00 per share

- 2025-11: $228.79 per share

- 2025-12: $227.72 per share

- 2026-01: $208.00 per share

- 2026-02: $213.66 per share

- 2026-03: $198.24 per share

- 2026-04: $201.28 per share

- 2026-05: $190.40 per share

- 2026-06: $218.45 per share

- 2026-07: $211.42 per share

- 2026-08: $218.08 per share

- 2026-09: $207.31 per share

- 2026-10: $222.88 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $29.09 per share, central $36.37 per share, high $48.49 per share

- FY2017: low $34.77 per share, central $43.46 per share, high $57.95 per share

- FY2018: low $42.79 per share, central $53.49 per share, high $71.32 per share

- FY2019: low $55.63 per share, central $69.54 per share, high $92.72 per share

- FY2020: low $71.04 per share, central $88.79 per share, high $118.39 per share

- FY2021: low $77.56 per share, central $96.95 per share, high $129.26 per share

- FY2022: low $68.40 per share, central $85.50 per share, high $114.00 per share

- FY2023: low $84.21 per share, central $105.27 per share, high $140.36 per share

- FY2024: low $116.38 per share, central $145.48 per share, high $193.97 per share

- FY2025: low $153.87 per share, central $192.34 per share, high $256.46 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066126000086/pgr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.