# Polaris Industries (PII.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PII

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:12.094Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $53.49 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $66.44 per share, central $75.23 per share, high $86.94 per share. Buy at or below the central value $75.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:12.094Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.1% at the stated quote. About 13.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: -0.00×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 20.4%

- FY2018: 15.4%

- FY2019: 15.2%

- FY2020: 26.8%

- FY2021: 23.4%

- FY2022: 23.4%

- FY2023: 21.0%

- FY2024: 6.2%

- FY2025: -1.2%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 2.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.23×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $588M

- Net income, five-year total: $477M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -33.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.79×

- FY2024: 1.22×

- FY2025: 0.78×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.66×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.4% vs 6.2%

- Per-share earnings: 3.27 to 1.95 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquisition spending exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Market cap gain: -$1.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$769M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -6.2%

- Per-share value change: -$1.32

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.27

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.78

- Average buyback yield: 3.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.27

- FY2017: $2.69

- FY2018: $5.25

- FY2019: $5.20

- FY2020: $1.99

- FY2021: $7.88

- FY2022: $9.81

- FY2023: $8.71

- FY2024: $1.95

- FY2025: -$8.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -24.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.16×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.97×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.6%

- FY2017: -13.2%

- FY2018: -3.4%

- FY2019: -7.5%

- FY2020: -19.3%

- FY2021: 4.0%

- FY2022: 1.6%

- FY2023: -7.7%

- FY2024: -2.8%

- FY2025: -24.7%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 61% since Jul 2023 · "Gross Margin: Pressured by negative mix, incentive compensation, and elevated promotions." (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:24.153Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-29: Polaris targets $40M operational efficiencies and launches RANGER 500 amid tariff mitigation ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4473667-polaris-targets-40m-operational-efficiencies-and-launches-ranger-500-amid-tariff-mitigation?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-13: Polaris Stock Soars on Indian Motorcycle Sale. What It Means for Harley-Davidson. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0d96699a-7d73-3bf5-8b21-5f45bc05a9fb/polaris-stock-soars-on-indian.html))

- 2026-01-28: PII Q4 Deep Dive: Tariffs and Mix Weigh on Margins, Guidance Trails Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pii-q4-deep-dive-tariffs-053142200.html))

- 2026-04-28: Polaris beats Q1 estimates, reaffirms guidance ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4580352-polaris-beats-q1-estimates-reaffirms-guidance?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931015/000162828026008033/pii-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $5.4B 

- FY2018: $6.1B 

- FY2019: $6.8B 

- FY2020: $7.0B 

- FY2021: $7.4B 

- FY2022: $8.6B 

- FY2023: $8.9B 

- FY2024: $7.2B 

- FY2025: $7.2B 

- FY2026: $7.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 21%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931015/000162828026008033/pii-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: 25.9% 

- FY2018: 23.4% 

- FY2019: 23.2% 

- FY2020: 23.1% 

- FY2021: 22.8% 

- FY2022: 22.2% 

- FY2023: 21.9% 

- FY2024: 19.6% 

- FY2025: 18.5% 

- FY2026: 21.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in recreational vehicles; annual sales are USD 7.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931015/000162828026008033/pii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 7152000000; grossProfit 1324600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PII.US: Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Off Road, On Road, and Marine. The company offers off-road vehicles (ORVs), including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles; military and commercial ORVs; snowmobiles; motorcycles; moto-roadsters; quadricycles; and pontoon and deck boats. It also provides source parts, garments, and accessories, such as helmets, jackets, gloves, pants, and hats; and snowmobile accessories comprising covers, traction products, reverse kits, electric starters, tracks, pull-behinds, bags, and windshields, as well as gear and apparel for its snowmobiles consisting of helmets, jackets, goggles, gloves, boots, bibs, pants, and hats. In addition, the company offers ORV accessories, including winches, bumper/brushguards, plows, racks, wheels and tires, cab systems, lighting and audio systems, cargo box accessories, and tracks, as well as replacement parts and lubricants. Further, it provides motorcycle accessories, such as performance enhancements, saddle bags, handlebars, backrests, exhausts, windshields, seats, and various chrome accessories, as well as light duty hauling and passenger vehicles. The company sells its products through dealers and distributors, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Polaris Industries Inc. Polaris Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Medina, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.5% to 21.9% during 2023–25; it earns 17.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931015/000162828026008033/pii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.204343150355108],[2018,0.15428775396039457],[2019,0.15217646917293937],[2020,0.26831089117277807],[2021,0.23379084322677354],[2022,0.23366791503594497],[2023,0.20962935068634012],[2024,0.06195618761021858],[2025,-0.011885067247886875],[2026,0.027761452435543493]]; median 0.1793154521577513. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 22% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931015/000162828026008033/pii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.22806215722120657],[2022,0.2221678891605542],[2023,0.2193655981375358]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 2.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 209137000; cash acquisitions 723705000; owner earnings 171323000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 4.224213911733976.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 184388000; cash acquisitions 1645000; owner earnings 179212000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.009179072829944424.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 14378000; upkeep 211036000; cash acquisitions 759800000; owner earnings 335257000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.309207563153044.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 16861000; upkeep 234513000; cash acquisitions 1800000; owner earnings 323960000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.057602790467959006.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 213900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 171600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 58111713.21959418; upkeep 240188286.78040582; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 470111713.2195942. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12361256183474327.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 73800000; upkeep 232800000; cash acquisitions 42200000; owner earnings 589700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.19671019162285908.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 49196883.58570176; upkeep 363403116.41429824; cash acquisitions 22700000; owner earnings 398296882.58570176. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18051078662467732.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 261700000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 135400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,140336000],[2017,145423000],[2018,149032000],[2019,149101000],[2020,152500000],[2021,153400000],[2022,150000000],[2023,147300000],[2024,147700000],[2025,150300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931015/000162828026008033/pii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 2400000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PII.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.346 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06313912563844776. Price 53.49; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.6899437906871455 → FY2025 -6.370826010544816. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $76.61 per share

- 2016-11: $86.86 per share

- 2016-12: $82.39 per share

- 2017-01: $84.07 per share

- 2017-02: $85.21 per share

- 2017-03: $83.80 per share

- 2017-04: $85.26 per share

- 2017-05: $83.60 per share

- 2017-06: $92.23 per share

- 2017-07: $89.66 per share

- 2017-08: $93.23 per share

- 2017-09: $104.63 per share

- 2017-10: $118.43 per share

- 2017-11: $127.01 per share

- 2017-12: $123.99 per share

- 2018-01: $113.01 per share

- 2018-02: $113.99 per share

- 2018-03: $114.52 per share

- 2018-04: $104.82 per share

- 2018-05: $111.90 per share

- 2018-06: $122.18 per share

- 2018-07: $105.42 per share

- 2018-08: $108.45 per share

- 2018-09: $100.95 per share

- 2018-10: $88.98 per share

- 2018-11: $97.00 per share

- 2018-12: $76.68 per share

- 2019-01: $83.88 per share

- 2019-02: $85.23 per share

- 2019-03: $84.43 per share

- 2019-04: $96.40 per share

- 2019-05: $79.88 per share

- 2019-06: $91.23 per share

- 2019-07: $94.67 per share

- 2019-08: $82.02 per share

- 2019-09: $88.01 per share

- 2019-10: $98.65 per share

- 2019-11: $97.70 per share

- 2019-12: $101.70 per share

- 2020-01: $91.84 per share

- 2020-02: $82.53 per share

- 2020-03: $48.15 per share

- 2020-04: $70.93 per share

- 2020-05: $87.34 per share

- 2020-06: $92.55 per share

- 2020-07: $103.63 per share

- 2020-08: $101.04 per share

- 2020-09: $94.34 per share

- 2020-10: $90.86 per share

- 2020-11: $96.00 per share

- 2020-12: $95.28 per share

- 2021-01: $116.67 per share

- 2021-02: $117.76 per share

- 2021-03: $133.50 per share

- 2021-04: $140.03 per share

- 2021-05: $131.22 per share

- 2021-06: $136.96 per share

- 2021-07: $131.07 per share

- 2021-08: $119.76 per share

- 2021-09: $119.66 per share

- 2021-10: $114.95 per share

- 2021-11: $111.79 per share

- 2021-12: $109.91 per share

- 2022-01: $112.59 per share

- 2022-02: $121.51 per share

- 2022-03: $105.32 per share

- 2022-04: $94.94 per share

- 2022-05: $106.55 per share

- 2022-06: $99.28 per share

- 2022-07: $117.28 per share

- 2022-08: $113.27 per share

- 2022-09: $95.65 per share

- 2022-10: $101.60 per share

- 2022-11: $114.06 per share

- 2022-12: $101.00 per share

- 2023-01: $114.84 per share

- 2023-02: $113.75 per share

- 2023-03: $110.63 per share

- 2023-04: $108.65 per share

- 2023-05: $107.71 per share

- 2023-06: $120.93 per share

- 2023-07: $135.84 per share

- 2023-08: $112.09 per share

- 2023-09: $104.14 per share

- 2023-10: $86.42 per share

- 2023-11: $82.47 per share

- 2023-12: $94.77 per share

- 2024-01: $89.96 per share

- 2024-02: $92.71 per share

- 2024-03: $100.12 per share

- 2024-04: $85.16 per share

- 2024-05: $83.60 per share

- 2024-06: $78.31 per share

- 2024-07: $83.28 per share

- 2024-08: $84.65 per share

- 2024-09: $83.24 per share

- 2024-10: $69.91 per share

- 2024-11: $69.00 per share

- 2024-12: $57.62 per share

- 2025-01: $47.70 per share

- 2025-02: $44.92 per share

- 2025-03: $40.94 per share

- 2025-04: $33.96 per share

- 2025-05: $39.22 per share

- 2025-06: $40.65 per share

- 2025-07: $52.91 per share

- 2025-08: $56.58 per share

- 2025-09: $58.13 per share

- 2025-10: $66.10 per share

- 2025-11: $66.36 per share

- 2025-12: $63.25 per share

- 2026-01: $63.84 per share

- 2026-02: $60.74 per share

- 2026-03: $54.50 per share

- 2026-04: $66.27 per share

- 2026-05: $70.57 per share

- 2026-06: $68.44 per share

- 2026-07: $67.08 per share

- 2026-08: $64.54 per share

- 2026-09: $52.15 per share

- 2026-10: $53.49 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $68.66 per share, central $86.59 per share, high $101.02 per share

- FY2017: low $86.44 per share, central $121.36 per share, high $142.37 per share

- FY2018: low $76.80 per share, central $111.75 per share, high $131.25 per share

- FY2019: low $70.15 per share, central $98.78 per share, high $115.90 per share

- FY2020: low $56.77 per share, central $66.44 per share, high $76.07 per share

- FY2021: low $80.00 per share, central $108.06 per share, high $125.74 per share

- FY2022: low $105.52 per share, central $143.74 per share, high $168.09 per share

- FY2023: low $96.67 per share, central $126.88 per share, high $147.96 per share

- FY2024: low $64.10 per share, central $72.58 per share, high $83.88 per share

- FY2025: low $61.25 per share, central $69.69 per share, high $80.93 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931015/000162828026008033/pii-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.