4 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and average operating margin was negative (must be zero or higher), and margins varied 1013.7% around their average (limit 35%).
- 10y median
- 13.0%
- Worst year
- -141.1%
- Latest · LTM
- 13.4%
# Park Hotels & Resorts (PK.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PK Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:12.667Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $15.72 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $6.12 per share, central $6.82 per share, high $7.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value $6.82 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:12.667Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: fail - 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - more than 2 net loss years - negative average operating margin - operating margin variation exceeds 0.35 - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 4 - Years with a net loss: 4 - Operating margin variation: 10.14× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.13× - FY2018: 0.18× - FY2019: 0.15× - FY2020: -1.41× - FY2021: -0.13× - FY2022: 0.12× - FY2023: 0.13× - FY2024: 0.15× - FY2025: 0.09× - LTM to Jun 2026: 0.13× ### moat: fail - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - Recent gross margin fell 26.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp) - ROIC, median of available years: 3.6% - ROIC, second-lowest year: -1.6% - Typical minus recent gross margin: 26.2 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.2% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 2.0% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 8.4% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.0% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 4.5% - FY2017: 4.6% - FY2018: 6.4% - FY2019: 3.8% - FY2020: -9.8% - FY2021: -1.6% - FY2022: 3.5% - FY2023: 3.2% - FY2024: 4.9% - FY2025: 2.5% ### economics: fail - incremental invested capital return below threshold - working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $129M - Net income, five-year total: -$271M - Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 17.6 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.7% Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: -$232M - FY2022: $263M - FY2023: $99M - FY2024: $242M - FY2025: -$243M ### management: fail - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years) - potential debt-funded buybacks (informational) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.6% vs 3.2% - Per-share earnings: 1.47 to 0.45 (three-year endpoint medians) - per-share value declined or ends nonpositive - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.4% - Market cap gain: -$3.8B - Cumulative retained earnings: -$4.8B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.4% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025 - Per-share value growth: -13.8% - Per-share value change: -$1.02 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.47 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.45 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.08 - Average buyback yield: 3.4% - Buyback history: 9 years - Debt-funded buybacks: Yes - Acquisition spending: $30M - Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.8B - ROIC, first three-year median: 4.6% - ROIC, last three-year median: 3.2% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: $0.67 - FY2017: $12.27 - FY2018: $2.31 - FY2019: $1.44 - FY2020: -$6.10 - FY2021: -$1.94 - FY2022: $0.71 - FY2023: $0.45 - FY2024: $1.01 - FY2025: -$1.42 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -8.8% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.12× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.8% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -2.7% - FY2017: 20.3% - FY2018: 0.3% - FY2019: -1.7% - FY2020: -9.5% - FY2021: -3.3% - FY2022: -2.5% - FY2023: -4.3% - FY2024: -2.4% - FY2025: -8.8% ## Holders ## Price story Down 20% since Apr 2022 · "Full Year RevPAR Forecast: Revised to a range of negative 2% to flat growth." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +0% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:24.376Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 12.7% a year for ten years - 2025-07-14: Park Hotels Q1 2025 slides: $57M loss prompts significant cut to full-year guidance ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/park-hotels-q1-2025-slides-57m-loss-prompts-significant-cut-to-fullyear-guidance-93CH-4133076)) - 2026-08-07: Park Hotels outlines 2026 adjusted EBITDA $617M-$637M as RevPAR outlook rises to 3%-4.5% ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4629502-park-hotels-outlines-2026-adjusted-ebitda-617m-637m-as-revpar-outlook-rises-to-3-percentminus?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news)) ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +0%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617406/000161740626000006/pk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20. - FY2017: $2.8B - FY2018: $2.7B - FY2019: $2.8B - FY2020: $852M - FY2021: $1.4B - FY2022: $2.5B - FY2023: $2.7B - FY2024: $2.6B - FY2025: $2.5B - FY2026: $2.5B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617406/000161740626000006/pk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20. - FY2016: 30.0% - FY2017: 29.2% - FY2018: 30.0% - FY2019: 30.3% - FY2021: 16.7% - FY2022: 27.7% - FY2023: 27.7% - FY2024: 28.7% - FY2025: 2.0% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in property rentals; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617406/000161740626000006/pk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 2541000000; grossProfit 50000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 2% to 28.7% during 2023–25; it earns 3.6% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 28.7%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617406/000161740626000006/pk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 2%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04506867449942082],[2017,0.046357615894039736],[2018,0.06357477191590638],[2019,0.038032662388076906],[2020,-0.09825951986754967],[2021,-0.016177782862372727],[2022,0.0349053681028684],[2023,0.032328567363778635],[2024,0.04866816031864576],[2025,0.024949692565679152]]; median 0.03646901524547265. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 45 million of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 227000000; owner earnings 206000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 185000000; owner earnings 2728000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 188000000; owner earnings 561000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 240000000; owner earnings 330000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 168000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 263000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 285000000; cash acquisitions 11000000; owner earnings 99000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1111111111111111. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 227000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 242000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,180000000],[2017,386000000],[2018,464000000],[2019,494000000],[2020,241000000],[2021,241000000],[2022,7000000],[2023,152000000],[2024,512000000],[2025,280000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617406/000161740626000006/pk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 45000000 USD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 4.3% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.3069999999999995 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 12.7% yearly over ten years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17002378443647193. Price 15.72; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.7828282828282829 → FY2025 -1.221105527638191. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-12: $29.90 per share - 2017-01: $27.14 per share - 2017-02: $25.54 per share - 2017-03: $25.67 per share - 2017-04: $25.67 per share - 2017-05: $25.74 per share - 2017-06: $26.96 per share - 2017-07: $26.93 per share - 2017-08: $26.69 per share - 2017-09: $27.56 per share - 2017-10: $28.79 per share - 2017-11: $29.20 per share - 2017-12: $28.75 per share - 2018-01: $28.91 per share - 2018-02: $25.99 per share - 2018-03: $27.02 per share - 2018-04: $28.78 per share - 2018-05: $32.22 per share - 2018-06: $30.63 per share - 2018-07: $31.28 per share - 2018-08: $33.45 per share - 2018-09: $32.82 per share - 2018-10: $29.07 per share - 2018-11: $30.82 per share - 2018-12: $25.98 per share - 2019-01: $30.07 per share - 2019-02: $31.24 per share - 2019-03: $31.08 per share - 2019-04: $32.08 per share - 2019-05: $27.62 per share - 2019-06: $27.56 per share - 2019-07: $26.41 per share - 2019-08: $23.55 per share - 2019-09: $24.97 per share - 2019-10: $23.25 per share - 2019-11: $23.65 per share - 2019-12: $25.87 per share - 2020-01: $21.94 per share - 2020-02: $18.26 per share - 2020-03: $7.91 per share - 2020-04: $9.51 per share - 2020-05: $9.83 per share - 2020-06: $9.89 per share - 2020-07: $8.27 per share - 2020-08: $9.49 per share - 2020-09: $9.99 per share - 2020-10: $9.93 per share - 2020-11: $16.32 per share - 2020-12: $17.15 per share - 2021-01: $16.68 per share - 2021-02: $21.75 per share - 2021-03: $21.58 per share - 2021-04: $22.31 per share - 2021-05: $20.79 per share - 2021-06: $20.61 per share - 2021-07: $18.50 per share - 2021-08: $19.14 per share - 2021-09: $19.14 per share - 2021-10: $18.53 per share - 2021-11: $16.64 per share - 2021-12: $18.88 per share - 2022-01: $18.20 per share - 2022-02: $18.84 per share - 2022-03: $19.53 per share - 2022-04: $19.71 per share - 2022-05: $18.06 per share - 2022-06: $13.57 per share - 2022-07: $15.59 per share - 2022-08: $14.00 per share - 2022-09: $11.26 per share - 2022-10: $13.08 per share - 2022-11: $12.83 per share - 2022-12: $11.79 per share - 2023-01: $14.71 per share - 2023-02: $13.75 per share - 2023-03: $12.36 per share - 2023-04: $12.05 per share - 2023-05: $12.94 per share - 2023-06: $12.82 per share - 2023-07: $13.63 per share - 2023-08: $12.83 per share - 2023-09: $12.32 per share - 2023-10: $11.53 per share - 2023-11: $14.83 per share - 2023-12: $15.30 per share - 2024-01: $15.08 per share - 2024-02: $16.60 per share - 2024-03: $17.49 per share - 2024-04: $16.13 per share - 2024-05: $15.86 per share - 2024-06: $14.98 per share - 2024-07: $15.06 per share - 2024-08: $15.28 per share - 2024-09: $14.10 per share - 2024-10: $13.89 per share - 2024-11: $15.55 per share - 2024-12: $14.07 per share - 2025-01: $13.49 per share - 2025-02: $12.28 per share - 2025-03: $10.68 per share - 2025-04: $9.94 per share - 2025-05: $10.36 per share - 2025-06: $10.23 per share - 2025-07: $10.66 per share - 2025-08: $11.76 per share - 2025-09: $11.08 per share - 2025-10: $10.29 per share - 2025-11: $10.82 per share - 2025-12: $10.46 per share - 2026-01: $10.93 per share - 2026-02: $11.31 per share - 2026-03: $10.53 per share - 2026-04: $11.47 per share - 2026-05: $12.13 per share - 2026-06: $14.25 per share - 2026-07: $15.06 per share - 2026-08: $15.30 per share - 2026-09: $15.42 per share - 2026-10: $15.72 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2017: low $15.79 per share, central $17.77 per share, high $20.40 per share - FY2018: low $21.00 per share, central $23.66 per share, high $27.19 per share - FY2019: low $20.52 per share, central $23.17 per share, high $26.68 per share - FY2020: low $8.54 per share, central $9.17 per share, high $10.01 per share - FY2021: low $10.12 per share, central $11.13 per share, high $12.47 per share - FY2022: low $16.36 per share, central $18.10 per share, high $20.41 per share - FY2023: low $8.12 per share, central $8.81 per share, high $9.73 per share - FY2024: low $6.66 per share, central $7.35 per share, high $8.27 per share - FY2025: low $6.03 per share, central $6.74 per share, high $7.68 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617406/000161740626000006/pk-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
PK · US
Not a wonderful business
4 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
4 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and average operating margin was negative (must be zero or higher), and margins varied 1013.7% around their average (limit 35%).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 3.6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -1.6% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 26.2 percentage points (limit 4).
New investment earned 0% (minimum 12%), and working capital rose 17.6% of sales (limit 10%) to 15.7% (waived at zero or below).
Per-share value fell from 1.47 to 0.45, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -8.8% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · fail 3 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin -4.4%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.13 USD. 3 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed. Mean operating margin over the last ten years is negative.
| Value range | $6.12 – $7.75 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $6.82 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 15.72 / 6.82 = -130.5% |
| Return / year | About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 0.46/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 1.06/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |